Texas Winter 2016-2017

[srainhoutx]

Getting some light sleet at the house in NW Harris County at this time. Jeff just posted a video of IP falling @ 290 near the Beltway. No model predicted that today...

[foulbeast]

Been lurking on this thread since the first Arctic outbreak in December, but just registered to post. I wanted to say thanks to everyone for all the discussion and analysis of the various models. It's fascinating to get a look at how the forecasting sausage is made - even if a lot of the discussion flies way over my head...

I am a cold lover, so I am hoping DFW sees some snow next week, but not getting my hopes up too much at this point.

[bubba hotep]

Getting some light sleet at the house in NW Harris County at this time. Jeff just posted a video of IP falling @ 290 near the Beltway. No model predicted that today...

It's those little surprises that make weather so fascinating.

Also, it was good to see some familiar names when I stumbled into this thread.

[Portastorm]

Been lurking on this thread since the first Arctic outbreak in December, but just registered to post. I wanted to say thanks to everyone for all the discussion and analysis of the various models. It's fascinating to get a look at how the forecasting sausage is made - even if a lot of the discussion flies way over my head...

I am a cold lover, so I am hoping DFW sees some snow next week, but not getting my hopes up too much at this point.

Welcome to Storm2K and thanks for posting. Don't be a stranger!

[foulbeast]

FWD AFD Update @ 11:47a CST

Looking farther ahead, changes in the 12Z model data are likely
going to result in some noticeable changes next week. For one,
the severe weather potential for Sunday night into Monday appears
to be increasing. The threat may be greatest in our south and
southeastern zones but we are continuing to assess the details on
this event. Regarding the arctic intrusion and potential winter
weather event later in the week, new data indicates the arctic
air will be slower to arrive and the winter weather potential may
be decreasing, but more to come with the afternoon forecast.

JLDunn

[Brent]

Euro is about to be out in the timeframe... we need a good model run

[dhweather]

[Brent]

12z Euro is warmer, well above freezing Wednesday. A little rain with temps near 40.

[ronyan]

It's mainly that the trough isn't digging as deep out west on the 12z Euro, flow is more zonal across the CONUS. Check the difference in the 500mb.

[Brent]

Temps actually rise a bit Wednesday Night. Not a good trend. Still near 40 Thursday morning.

A little precip Thursday Night/Friday Morning with temps falling below freezing Friday morning.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

How is it possible were getting sleet in the 50's? Lol

[Brent]

How is it possible were getting sleet in the 50's? Lol

I've seen it in Alabama once I think... it was near 50 and melted pretty quick

[mcheer23]

How is it possible were getting sleet in the 50's? Lol

cold air aloft and dry air in low levels

[Brent]

Euro has some sort of winter event Friday Night at DFW now. It's not much but it's better than last run(just later). Thursday is rain.

The precip map is pretty expansive as it ends with snow for DFW and a mix at Austin... as it ends Saturday morning Austin and Houston briefly end as snow.

and it's cold behind it with DFW highs Friday and Saturday below freezing and Sunday in the mid 30s

[srainhoutx]

How is it possible were getting sleet in the 50's? Lol

Wet bulbing. Very cold dry air aloft freezes water droplets into sleet and some of the sleet survived the warmer surface layer. It's these little surprises that makes weather so fascinating. It surprised everyone including the HGX forecasters. Serves to prove a point often made...never fully trust the models. There are little nuances that just can't be resolved even with all our data.

[KatDaddy]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1216 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Another update to tweak high temperatures down 1 to 3 degrees
today with cloudiness and virga/showers/sleet. Also added IP to
the weather grids from the FWD border down to Houston given
potential for extreme wet bulbing, and the numerous calls, social
media posts, and videos of some light sleet sent to us.

[bubba hotep]

I actually like the 500mb trends on the Euro since yesterday at 12z.

[gpsnowman]

I thought the front was arriving late Tuesday? Man I hope this is just the models losing it for a couple runs then bring it all back. Now the Euro is warmer when it was the coldest.

[srainhoutx]

I actually like the 500mb trends on the Euro since yesterday at 12z.

Certainly looks good for us in SE Texas and Louisiana. Good to see you as well bubba hotep. There are a lot of good folks and longtime friends in real life on this board. Look forward to your contributions!

[CaptinCrunch]

Don't over concern yourself with the models just yet, they are starting to bounce around. With the arctic front expected mid week It's Monday's models and then on that I'm looking forward to seeing. Right now the big concern is the increasing severe wx threat New Years Day and heading into Monday.