Texas Winter 2018-2019

Winter Weather Discussion

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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2461 Postby HockeyTx82 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:34 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:Radar says it right on top of of me now, I see nothing falling, stepped outside for a better look too.

Looks like it is starting to fizzle out now. Oh well it was fun while it lasted. :D


Yup, seems that way. My storm radar app dinged me about snow starting at 10:15, right around when you posted. Oh well, it was a step in the right direction, baby steps......
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2462 Postby Cerlin » Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:35 pm

Man it’s like it didn’t realize it was headed towards DFW but once it figured out, it just disappeared.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2463 Postby HockeyTx82 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:37 pm

Cerlin wrote:Man it’s like it didn’t realize it was headed towards DFW but once it figured out, it just disappeared.


It was going rogue and the mothership called it back.

Reminds me of that Hurricane that just went poof when it hit Texas when we were in a drought..... when was that?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2464 Postby EnnisTx » Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:40 pm

LMAO........ :P
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2465 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:04 am

If only this had some cold air to work with :roll:

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2466 Postby Cerlin » Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:08 am

Something’s barely falling out of the sky in Frisco, can’t tell if flakes or sad droplets of drizzle.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2467 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:15 am

Cerlin wrote:Man it’s like it didn’t realize it was headed towards DFW but once it figured out, it just disappeared.


I had the same thought :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2468 Postby Texas Snow » Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:23 am

Cerlin wrote:Something’s barely falling out of the sky in Frisco, can’t tell if flakes or sad droplets of drizzle.


I had the same thing one far north Dallas almost Plano. I had to hold out my shirt to “catch one” and finally got a couple that melted.

I was SOOOO tempted to report snow flurries on mPING but I just couldn’t do it. Gotta keep Weather Nerd integrity.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2469 Postby EnnisTx » Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:00 am

Texas Snow wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Something’s barely falling out of the sky in Frisco, can’t tell if flakes or sad droplets of drizzle.


I had the same thing one far north Dallas almost Plano. I had to hold out my shirt to “catch one” and finally got a couple that melted.

I was SOOOO tempted to report snow flurries on mPING but I just couldn’t do it. Gotta keep Weather Nerd integrity.



Hey, that still counts! I'm going to not report some flurries in Arlington the same way. However, i think mine were lake effect....
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2470 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:07 am

The 0z Euro & 0z FV3 both look kind of interesting in the 7-10 day timeframe. Wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see some winter weather across a big part of Texas during this time span.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2471 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:56 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Man it’s like it didn’t realize it was headed towards DFW but once it figured out, it just disappeared.


It was going rogue and the mothership called it back.

Reminds me of that Hurricane that just went poof when it hit Texas when we were in a drought..... when was that?


2011, TS Don. The summer where it was over 105 for 2 weeks in DFW. 40 or so days over 100.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2472 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:09 am

Looks like more flurries around Plano.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2473 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:34 am

That was a fun system though disappointing around here. At least there is always another one in line.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2474 Postby losf1981 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:31 am

Saw some very pretty snow fall but most of it was gone as soon as it landed especially as it got later in the day here in Wichita Falls.

Still feel blessed and lucky to get some winter weather which I have loved since being a little kid. Lived in New Braunfels for 5 years and that was what I missed the most about living back home in WF.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2475 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:37 am

Really starting to like what I'm seeing on the long range ensembles....after next weeks warmup, the SOI/SSW begin to do its dirty work - pushing the storm tract south and bringing plenty of cold air into Canada to tap into. Then looking beyond week 2 - both the Euro Weeklies and finally CFSV2 is coming around - Winter looks like it could have a ferocious back half!! :cold:

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2476 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:04 am

:uarrow: Just when I thought I was going to take some time off from weather, orangeblood brings me right back in!!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2477 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:22 am

With NOAA's data sites still inaccessible due to shutdown I can't really post much about analogs or the El Nino observations at this time.

But -SOI reversal, Stratosphere wind reversal, and WWB along and east of the dateline now couples well with your usual west based Nino events. Mild start that finishes Cold. Nina winters starts strong but ends putrid, the reverse effect for non Super El Ninos.

Our next storm chance is around the 12th-14th+/- that ushers in split flow regime.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2478 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:41 am

Ntxw wrote:With NOAA's data sites still inaccessible due to shutdown I can't really post much about analogs or the El Nino observations at this time.

But -SOI reversal, Stratosphere wind reversal, and WWB along and east of the dateline now couples well with your usual west based Nino events. Mild start that finishes Cold. Nina winters starts strong but ends putrid, the reverse effect for non Super El Ninos.

Our next storm chance is around the 12th-14th+/- that ushers in split flow regime.


Yep, as long as the split happens/jet cuts underneath...we should be in business. If it doesn't, look out for the dreaded dry northwest flow with glancing Arctic Air
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2479 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:03 am

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:With NOAA's data sites still inaccessible due to shutdown I can't really post much about analogs or the El Nino observations at this time.

But -SOI reversal, Stratosphere wind reversal, and WWB along and east of the dateline now couples well with your usual west based Nino events. Mild start that finishes Cold. Nina winters starts strong but ends putrid, the reverse effect for non Super El Ninos.

Our next storm chance is around the 12th-14th+/- that ushers in split flow regime.


Yep, as long as the split happens/jet cuts underneath...we should be in business. If it doesn't, look out for the dreaded dry northwest flow with glancing Arctic Air
Considering how the season has gone so far you have to bet on split flow. Hopefully the STJ stays active while the Polar brings some cold air to work with. We have almost gotten lucky multiple times with minimal cold air up north so any improvement helps.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2480 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:10 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:Considering how the season has gone so far you have to bet on split flow. Hopefully the STJ stays active while the Polar brings some cold air to work with. We have almost gotten lucky multiple times with minimal cold air up north so any improvement helps.


We got excited a little early the past week with the Euro showing snow from the EPO cold snap largely came out of nowhere within 7-10 day time frame. So now we're back on the train of post SSW-ENSO climo.
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