Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

KWTV-News 9 in OKC is calling for a possible winter storm next week with at least 50% chance of snow Next Monday & Tuesday



Also, look at the lows next week, down to 12°F.

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS-P also likes a winter storm north of the Red River and into Arkansas.

[gboudx]

Yesterday the NWS had a Super Bowl Sunday high in the upper 30’s for DFW. Now it’s up 47, which frankly isn’t that cold. Here is their current thinking:

A pair of fast moving disturbances diving through the deep parent
trough will move overhead on Friday and Saturday. The first will
send a weak surface low through the area with a dry weak cold
front accompanying it. The second will send a much colder Arctic
airmass southward into the area late Saturday into Sunday. There
are still quite a few uncertainties with this second front, as
recent guidance has altered the orientation of the upper trough
axis such that the trajectory of the surface high and coldest air
may only skirt the forecast area as a backdoor front rather than a
direct shot of Arctic air. Either way, this should reinforce
below-normal temperatures with highs mainly in the 40s to around
50 on Sunday with most of the area experiencing a freeze
overnight. Without a meaningful moisture source, this system is
largely expected to come through dry within our forecast area.
Another storm system may bring slightly better rain chances during
the second week of February.

-Stalley

I don't get it.

It’s better for them to go conservative at this timeframe, then adjust downward later in the week if they need to. Let’s wait for a couple more days to pass.

[gpsnowman]

KWTV-News 9 in OKC is calling for a possible winter storm next week with at least 50% chance of snow Next Monday & Tuesday

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-02-01-at-5.21.30-PM.png

Also, look at the lows next week, down to 12°F.

I know OKC is a little colder and snowier than DFW but the two cities are just three hours apart. The local TV forecasts in DFW are NOWHERE near as cold as this OKC outlook.

[starsfan65]

KWTV-News 9 in OKC is calling for a possible winter storm next week with at least 50% chance of snow Next Monday & Tuesday

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-02-01-at-5.21.30-PM.png

Also, look at the lows next week, down to 12°F.

I know OKC is a little colder and snowier than DFW but the two cities are just three hours apart. The local TV forecasts in DFW are NOWHERE near as cold as this OKC outlook.

It will be colder than the TV guys are predicting on Sunday.

[orangeblood]

Some pretty phenomenal Ensemble members from the latest GFS suite.... the ingredients are on the field, it’s just at this latitude you need a lot more luck for it to all come together!!

[Brent]

KWTV-News 9 in OKC is calling for a possible winter storm next week with at least 50% chance of snow Next Monday & Tuesday

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-02-01-at-5.21.30-PM.png

Also, look at the lows next week, down to 12°F.

I know OKC is a little colder and snowier than DFW but the two cities are just three hours apart. The local TV forecasts in DFW are NOWHERE near as cold as this OKC outlook.

It's crazy but think about how much more snow OKC has had than DFW this winter too. It's been a totally different winter just up the road

[AubreyStorm]

So, what about this?

Maybe this NOT ........ Occur?!?!

[Iceresistance]

Some pretty phenomenal Ensemble members from the latest GFS suite.... the ingredients are on the field, it’s just at this latitude you need a lot more luck for it to all come together!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/snow_total_multimember_panel/1612202400/1613584800-iaO2VkfK8TM.png

Ensemble #9 is a total whiteout, look at how much it is expected across Oklahoma & Texas!

[Iceresistance]

KWTV-News 9 in OKC is calling for a possible winter storm next week with at least 50% chance of snow Next Monday & Tuesday

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-02-01-at-5.21.30-PM.png

Also, look at the lows next week, down to 12°F.

I know OKC is a little colder and snowier than DFW but the two cities are just three hours apart. The local TV forecasts in DFW are NOWHERE near as cold as this OKC outlook.

Also keep in mind that Oklahoma had 2 tornadoes just a couple days ago in Nowata County, then it will snow in a couple of weeks.

It can go from Winter to Spring & back to Winter in 2 weeks time! And I've been there & witnessed it as being an Oklahoman, it's wild!

[Quixotic]

KWTV-News 9 in OKC is calling for a possible winter storm next week with at least 50% chance of snow Next Monday & Tuesday

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-02-01-at-5.21.30-PM.png


Also, look at the lows next week, down to 12°F.

I know OKC is a little colder and snowier than DFW but the two cities are just three hours apart. The local TV forecasts in DFW are NOWHERE near as cold as this OKC outlook.

Also keep in mind that Oklahoma had 2 tornadoes just a couple days ago in Nowata County, then it will snow in a couple of weeks.

It can go from Winter to Spring & back to Winter in 2 weeks time! And I've been there & witnessed it as being an Oklahoman, it's wild!

Christmas Day 2012 we got T-warned in the AM and had about 5 - 6” of drifting snow before 8 pm.

[HockeyTx82]

Fox 4 a big front on the way for the weekend......

Highs in the 40's......

Really? What am I missing?

I'm so done with these arctic highs and long range models.

[Brent]

Fox 4 a big front on the way for the weekend......

Highs in the 40's......

Really? What am I missing?

I'm so done with these arctic highs and long range models.

Seriously Delkus is hyping cold with a high of 44 I'm so not impressed

[Cpv17]

Fox 4 a big front on the way for the weekend......

Highs in the 40's......

Really? What am I missing?

I'm so done with these arctic highs and long range models.

Seriously Delkus is hyping cold with a high of 44 I'm so not impressed

Lmao I wouldn’t even be impressed with 44 for a high even way down south where I’m at.

[Texas Snow]

Fox 4 a big front on the way for the weekend......

Highs in the 40's......

Really? What am I missing?

I'm so done with these arctic highs and long range models.

Problem 1 watching Fox 4 for your weather forecast.
Problem 2 watching models this far out and believing the worst (best) case scenario that benefits you.

It’s entertainment this far out. If a consistent pattern evolves over time then start to pay serious attention.

Until then pray. We live on the Rare Belt. Anything that shows extreme cold or snow for us 7-10 days out is usually wrong. We are hoping for the one time it’s right.

[HockeyTx82]

Fox 4 a big front on the way for the weekend......

Highs in the 40's......

Really? What am I missing?

I'm so done with these arctic highs and long range models.

Problem 1 watching Fox 4 for your weather forecast.
Problem 2 watching models this far out and believing the worst (best) case scenario that benefits you.

It’s entertainment this far out. If a consistent pattern evolves over time then start to pay serious attention.

Until then pray. We live on the Rare Belt. Anything that shows extreme cold or snow for us 7-10 days out is usually wrong. We are hoping for the one time it’s right.

Oh I know. Heck, even FWD NWS teased a bit a few days ago.

Been on this board since 2009 so I'm hardened.

[Cpv17]

I’m beginning to be much more interested in that second batch of cold air than the first one.

[Brent]

I’m beginning to be much more interested in that second batch of cold air than the first one.

There's still a possibly interesting system around day 9 too

The problem is its day 9

[HockeyTx82]

Now temps are trending up and they still say Arctic front, but just a piece of it.

[bubba hotep]

Overnight ensemble runs were much more encouraging than the Op runs.