Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

i urge EVERYONE to stay tuned to us, local tv, radio or noaa weather radio this forecast is in the process of changing BIG TIME if the 18z nam verifies... just looking over the data in precip amts in liquid form that the nam is putting out some areas could see 6, 8 maybe 10 inches of snow.. this could turn into another MAJOR winter storm...

if the trends keep up i would say my forecast would be on track with some possible isolated amounts 8 inches + in western sections of north tx... stay tuned...

[shibumi]

msstateguy83,

If you wouldn't mind, it would be good to put your disclaimer at the bottom of your posts instead of the top......it is a bit aggravating to have to read the first few words of it every time we look at your posts....



IMO

This has been an exciting early winter for TX...and hopefully weuns in LA will get some action eventually as well!!!

[msstateguy83]

the disclaimer stays at the top so its very clear that it is not the 'official' nws forecast that is rules per storm2k.
i do have some background in weather iam currently going to meteorology school through a major
accredited university.

[Ntxw]

its not just my idea its based on fact of the latest 18z nam run, the disclaimer stays at the top so its very clear
that it is not the 'official' nws forecast that is rules per storm2k. i do have some background in weather iam
currently going to meteorology school through a major accredited university.

You've proven correct on the most part last storm so generally everyone here respects what your thoughts are even if it's quite out on a limb. I think what he means is he wants the disclaimer at the bottom so he doesn't have to read it first (or at all xD) and just wants your thoughts even though the disclaimer has to be there as the rules say. Doesn't mean all of us read it all the time =P

[bktkck]

the disclaimer stays at the top so its very clear that it is not the 'official' nws forecast that is rules per storm2k.
i do have some background in weather iam currently going to meteorology school through a major
accredited university.

Maybe you could just make the disclaimer bold and that would make everyone, including me, happy!

[shibumi]

the disclaimer stays at the top so its very clear that it is not the 'official' nws forecast that is rules per storm2k.
i do have some background in weather iam currently going to meteorology school through a major
accredited university.

I'm just saying that it would be nice to move the disclaimer to the bottom...it makes for easier reading..

I edited my original post when I read the Moderator's post on disclaimers....

[msstateguy83]

totally understand the points =) well taken
i know i go out on a limb some, more so then some would but it's just been shown time
and time before and even just this last system how very poorly the models handle winter
storms.. i think its doing it again, if you look @ the 18z nam its further proof that now that
the system is almost upon us the precip is increasing, amts somewhat as well..

[mysterymachinebl]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
237 PM CST MON DEC 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...
HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHWEST OF A
KILLEEN...HILLSBORO..SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. EXPECT SNOW TO START IN WESTERN COUNTIES NEAR SUNRISE...THE METROPLEX AFTER NOON...AND EASTERN COUNTIES LATE AFTERNOON.

IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES...PRECIP WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. FARTHER NORTH...SNOWFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED IN THE WEST VARYING
TO ABOUT A HALF INCH IN THE NORTHEAST AND JUST A TENTH OR TWO IN THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND...AND ROAD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME SLIPPERY...RANGER HILL IN EASTLAND COUNTY MAY PROVE TO BE A PROBLEM.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL...EAST...AND SOUTH WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE SNOW STARTS SO MELTING IS LIKELY. THE RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT IS WHEN THE ROADS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BECOME ICY. REMEMBER...THE SNOW GRIDS ARE FOR ACTUAL SNOW FALL...BUT MELTING WILL LIMIT ON THE GROUND ACCUMULATIONS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END IN
THE WEST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND BY SUNSET IN THE EAST.

MODELS DO NOT SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT TO MELT THE
PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE LEFT SLEET OUT OF THE GRIDS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF SLEET MAY MIX IN...BUT SNOW IS MORE LIKELY.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THIS FRONT...BUT A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A SMALL AMOUNT OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
THE NORTH. MOST OF THE PRECIP COULD EVAPORATE BEFORE IT HITS THE GROUND. 84

LONG TERM...
THE COLD PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FROPA ON FRIDAY AND COLD CANADIAN AIR APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING A POLAR VORTEX FROM SIBERIA ACROSS THE NORTH POLE INTO CANADA. THIS VORTEX STRETCHES AND ABSORBS THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX SENDING COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE COLDEST AIR TO OUR EAST WHILE THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG THROUGH OUR AREA. AS A RESULT HIGH TEMPERATURES VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE TWO ON
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING TEMPS IN THE 30S. MEX GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY BIAS AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO CHOOSE ONE MODEL SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER. THEREFORE...WILL TRIM
TEMPS DOWN BUT WILL AVOID THE RECORD BREAKING COLD SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME.

GFS/ECMWF CURRENTLY SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR A STRONG TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT DIFFER ON TIMING AND MOISTURE. RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES...00Z ECMWF PROGGED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM COLORADO IN LOUISIANA...SUGGESTS CAUTION BUT GFS/ECMWF PATTERN AGREEMENT LEADS TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE. ECMWF SOLUTION FAVORED AT THIS TIME WITH NO PRECIP ADDED TO THE GRIDS ON
DAY SEVEN. 42

[CaptinCrunch]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

i urge EVERYONE to stay tuned to us, local tv, radio or noaa weather radio this forecast is in the process of changing BIG TIME if the 18z nam verifies... just looking over the data in precip amts in liquid form that the nam is putting out some areas could see 6, 8 maybe 10 inches of snow.. this could turn into another MAJOR winter storm...

if the trends keep up i would say my forecast would be on track with some possible isolated amounts 8 inches + in western sections of north tx... stay tuned...

Trends do favor this setup, models I think are trying to form a upper low in GOM, this would increase precip vaules greatly, also note is the upper air flow more from the N rather NW, which should push temps down a few degrees so freeze line may be little futher south and east. Should this pan out it could be one the bigger snows in DFW in 40 years.

I know NWS FTW is going on the soft side with snows melting by wed, however i do not see this happing, if total's are indeed low snow may still on the ground New Years eve. The big concern would be the roads, and yes they would be very dangerous to travel on.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

The ground isn't all that warm as it's been chilly since Christmas eve and with snow having been on the ground from the last storm I would question the melting that extreme during the event. Also anyone notice the winter weather advisory extends almost a full 24 hours for north Texas compared to roughly around 12 for the other regions? Maybe it's just me Is it slowing down or something?

[CaptinCrunch]

:uarrow: The ground isn't all that warm as it's been chilly since Christmas eve and with snow having been on the ground I would question the melting that extreme. Also anyone notice the winter weather advisory extends almost a full 24 hours for north Texas compared to roughly around 12 for the other regions? Is it slowing down or something?

there was still snow in areas that have seen little sun light since it fell

[WacoWx]

Hello all. I just found this board and I really like what I see here.

CaptinCrunch seems to be the first to mention the temperature dropping a few degrees more than forecast according to some model. I am in Waco and that line is sitting on top of me trhoughout tomorrow. Most of the posters here are agreeing on the precip being a little on the light side regarding the forecast. What is the driving factor behind the temp staying below 32? Is it the Low wrapping more cold air behind it or just a stronger push of cold air to establish a colder airmass? I am tired of cold rain events...I WANT A SNOW EVENT!! TIA

[HockeyTx82]

Here in Denton there is still ice in parking lots and snow cover on the ground. Mainly in the shade but still, over four days later......

[Weatherdude20]

:uarrow: The ground isn't all that warm as it's been chilly since Christmas eve and with snow having been on the ground from the last storm I would question the melting that extreme during the event. Also anyone notice the winter weather advisory extends almost a full 24 hours for north Texas compared to roughly around 12 for the other regions? Maybe it's just me Is it slowing down or something?

slowing down indeed

[TexasStorm]

So they are backing off this storm then. They seem to think there is going to be a lot of melting snow with this storm. Not sure I buy that.

[msstateguy83]

my god i just looked over the whole nam run and it has slowed up, increased amounts
increased coverage... the all important gfs will be out soon we need to look for changes in it, then if this keeps up by 00z i would expect major forecast changes!

[Portastorm]

Hello all. I just found this board and I really like what I see here.

CaptinCrunch seems to be the first to mention the temperature dropping a few degrees more than forecast according to some model. I am in Waco and that line is sitting on top of me trhoughout tomorrow. Most of the posters here are agreeing on the precip being a little on the light side regarding the forecast. What is the driving factor behind the temp staying below 32? Is it the Low wrapping more cold air behind it or just a stronger push of cold air to establish a colder airmass? I am tired of cold rain events...I WANT A SNOW EVENT!! TIA

First and foremost ... welcome to S2K! It is great to have someone from the banks of the Brazos in our Winter Forum. We look forward to you participating in our spirited discussions.

As for your question, it depends on a number of factors including strength of the high supressing the jet stream to the south, the track of the upper trough and the associated wet-bulb cooling underneath it, the amount of Gulf air and the direction slung over the cold airmass by the developing coastal trough, etc. etc.

[jasons2k]

Hi everyone - on the disclaimer:

Top or bottom is OK. The preferred way is to just place it at the top and inside a quote.

And, no, it is not required on every post. Is is only needed if your post is making a specific forecast. It is not needed for general comments and discussion, etc. Thanks everyone!

[Ntxw]

my god i just looked over the whole nam run and it has slowed up, increased amounts
increased coverage... the all important gfs will be out soon we need to look for changes in it, then if this keeps up by 00z i would expect major forecast changes!

0z NAM and GFS is what would be interesting. New data from observations throughout the network should be included by then.

[vbhoutex]

my god i just looked over the whole nam run and it has slowed up, increased amounts
increased coverage... the all important gfs will be out soon we need to look for changes in it, then if this keeps up by 00z i would expect major forecast changes!

0z NAM and GFS is what would be interesting. New data from observations throughout the network should be included by then.

I've been watching this with interest more towards our area of TX but I was wondering if I was seeing the slow down and the increase in the possible coverage. Glad to know I wasn't imagining what I was seeing. Sometimes I think we all can get excited and read in things that aren't there on the models, but I try my best not too. Thus a reluctance to post my thoughts sometimes.
BTW, you kicked booty on the last call for the storm in N TX. Well done! Where are you studying meteorology?