Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

Anyone check out the GFS ensembles? Virtually all of them are colder than the GFS early next week.

[Portastorm]

Anyone check out the GFS ensembles? Virtually all of them are colder than the GFS early next week.

Now THAT is something to get excited about.

Here's hoping the good trends we have seen in the 0z runs, today's 12z runs, and Ntxw's nice find about the GFS ensembles continues.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wow, both models look promising. I REALLY want snow this year in houston to make it three in a row. Never been done here. Im with wxman that we need some pretty cold air to go with it.

I am reading that the MJO is at phase 7-8, when should we expect this moisture to be reaching our neck of the woods?

I don't think we will get snow in Houston this year. Tuesday would be our best shot, but even that is marginal at best.

I don't see any real chance at snow down here Tuesday, as the air aloft will almost certainly be above freezing for quite a ways up. However, our greatest snowfalls in history have typically occurred around the 2nd week of February. Unfortunately, winter is far from over for Houston. I'm still waiting for my warm, dry, sunny La Nina winter...

Me too, i prepared myself for a warm winter. I was ok with it since last year was quite cold and we had a nice snowstorm where basically my town was the bullseye. (Sugar land) But these cold shots are teasing me and now im just getting greedy so BRING IT JACK FROST!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Anyone check out the GFS ensembles? Virtually all of them are colder than the GFS early next week.

LINK?

[Ntxw]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html

You can find the ensemble means on this site.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html

You can find the ensemble means on this site.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

sorry quick lesson, why are there so many different maps? lol

[Ntxw]

sorry quick lesson, why are there so many different maps? lol

Ensembles are different runs of the 'Parent' model using slight modifications, or biases. Think of it this way, essentially the GFS is an ensemble member only it has the initialization data and better resolution. If you get a consensus from the ensembles, that's a sure bet it would probably happen (if a warm biased member says cold, and the rest says cold, essentially it will probably be cold lol). Long range forecasts from the ensembles imo is much more trustworthy than the OPS.

[WacoWx]

Alright, so i guess next week is the big week? I'm just going to act like I didnt read the past few promising pages.

[hitting refresh every minute hoping for more optimism out of Portastorm]

[Tireman4]

You have to pay extra to get the premium view of the Portastorm Weather Center. After looking the budget, the meteorologists at the PWC need a revenue stream.

[WacoWx]

I'm VIP

[Tireman4]

I'm VIP

Not according to Ntxw's radar....you guys get missed everytime...LOL...Tee heeee

[Ntxw]

You have to pay extra to get the premium view of the Portastorm Weather Center. After looking the budget, the meteorologists at the PWC need a revenue stream.

Prices dropped after this week's bust . I too am awaiting his updates!

Edit: No signs of the +PNA letting up, Euro/CMC/GFS all lock it in place. Wxman may just be right about this winter going well into and beyond FEB.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zGFSEnsembles500mbHGHTNA_Loop.html

[WacoWx]

I'm VIP

Not according to Ntxw's radar....you guys get missed everytime...LOL...Tee heeee

Weather smack? Really? "All that hate's gonna burn you up kid..."

And Ntxw, your avatar is only building character for me. Greatest winter wx day in Dallas' history in my lifetime.

[Tireman4]

I'm VIP

Not according to Ntxw's radar....you guys get missed everytime...LOL...Tee heeee

Weather smack? Really? "All that hate's gonna burn you up kid..."

And Ntxw, your avatar is only building character for me. Greatest winter wx day in Dallas' history in my lifetime.

You know I am joshing ya.....

[txagwxman]

You have to pay extra to get the premium view of the Portastorm Weather Center. After looking the budget, the meteorologists at the PWC need a revenue stream.

Prices dropped after this week's bust . I too am awaiting his updates!

Edit: No signs of the +PNA letting up, Euro/CMC/GFS all lock it in place. Wxman may just be right about this winter going well into and beyond FEB.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zGFSEnsembles500mbHGHTNA_Loop.html

No doubt this winter is going into Feb. But I still don't think it will snow in Houston.

[orangeblood]

Anyone check out the GFS ensembles? Virtually all of them are colder than the GFS early next week.

The 0Z and 6Z GFS ensembles were extremely cold for next week. Even some 15-20 degrees F below normal for a few days. The 12Z runs have since back off a little but still very cold none the less.

This doesn't appear to be confined to just the US either. Has anyone noticed how much cold air is around in the middle troposphere across the Northern Hemisphere ? I don't think I've ever seen this much cold air dominate a Northern Hemisphere map like this. We just need that cold transported down to the surface i.e. closed upper lows and it'll become a very interesting week next week.

[wxman57]

No doubt this winter is going into Feb. But I still don't think it will snow in Houston.

I don't think so, either. But I could say that every winter and be right about 95% of the time. If these storm systems keep laying down snow in the Southern Plains (down to OK/KS), then we'll have to watch out across Texas if a more significant shot of Canadian/Arctic air drops south.

[txagwxman]

Yea agree...but my gut says it will stay north of IAH/HOU. I hope I am wrong though.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z UKMET looks encouraging...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Anyone check out the GFS ensembles? Virtually all of them are colder than the GFS early next week.

The 0Z and 6Z GFS ensembles were extremely cold for next week. Even some 15-20 degrees F below normal for a few days. The 12Z runs have since back off a little but still very cold none the less.

This doesn't appear to be confined to just the US either. Has anyone noticed how much cold air is around in the middle troposphere across the Northern Hemisphere ? I don't think I've ever seen this much cold air dominate a Northern Hemisphere map like this. We just need that cold transported down to the surface i.e. closed upper lows and it'll become a very interesting week next week.

How are you seeing these cold tropospheric temps? 500 MB range? JB was right ?!?!?!??!