Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

http://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image8.jpg

I thought the front was arriving late Tuesday? Man I hope this is just the models losing it for a couple runs then bring it all back. Now the Euro is warmer when it was the coldest.

Euro is very cold it just is slower than previous. There is still a winter precip event for many of us, just light amounts. The trend on the euro is actually better. I still wouldn't lose sleep on any run. As many pointed out, just of interest. The runs we all want to see is Sunday into Monday.

[TheProfessor]

Kinda getting some 2013 storm vibes, I remember the models slowing down and backing off the cold in the medium range. I think the freezing air ended up arriving at my house almost 12 hours early, which may have saved me from power outages, but entombed the entire area in thick sleet. The difference is I believe the QPF was always high for that event, but I might be wrong.

[Brent]

http://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image8.jpg

I thought the front was arriving late Tuesday? Man I hope this is just the models losing it for a couple runs then bring it all back. Now the Euro is warmer when it was the coldest.

Euro is very cold it just is slower than previous. There is still a winter precip event for many of us, just light amounts. The trend on the euro is actually better. I still wouldn't lose sleep on any run. As many pointed out, just of interest. The runs we all want to see is Sunday into Monday.

Wednesday and Thursday are definitely cold just not as cold as it was before... it would still be really cold days compared to the 80s with temperatures around 40.

The GFS is 30s at DFW Wednesday then "warms up" to around 50 Thursday

[ronyan]

Looks like the coldest air is after that on this run.

[orangeblood]

http://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image8.jpg

I thought the front was arriving late Tuesday? Man I hope this is just the models losing it for a couple runs then bring it all back. Now the Euro is warmer when it was the coldest.

Euro is very cold it just is slower than previous. There is still a winter precip event for many of us, just light amounts. The trend on the euro is actually better. I still wouldn't lose sleep on any run. As many pointed out, just of interest. The runs we all want to see is Sunday into Monday.

Getting the Euro going towards more of a neutral trough is a good sign...we'll get more lift but will the Arctic Air beat out the warm advection - most of the time it does particularly during the coldest time of the year

[aggiecutter]

[gatorcane]

Euro looks to continue the warmer trend on that 12Z run and yet again may have been overdoing the amplification of the trough in the long-range. Still quite cold for Texas though.

[Ntxw]

That -EPO is comparable to Dec 2013 but Jan's climo. All models agree and its already building now. I'm not concerned about the cold, more the progression at 500mb

[Brent]

CIPS Analog Guidance ‏@CIPSAnalogs 17m17 minutes ago
This is by far one of the strongest snow signals we’ve seen in Days 6-8.

[Cpv17]

Can anyone tell me what the Euro shows for SE TX temps and precip wise?

[Brent]

:uarrow: Looks like the coldest air is after that on this run.

Right, There's some snow Fri/Sat on the Euro and then the bottom really drops

Can anyone tell me what the Euro shows for SE TX temps and precip wise?

At IAH Mid 60s Wednesday/Thursday, around 50 Friday, rain Friday Night, ends about when temps fall below freezing Saturday morning, Highs in the mid 30s Saturday, lows in the 20s Sunday morning.

[Ralph's Weather]

Wonder if some sleet will mix in here and with cold temperatures aloft today?

[ravyrn]

Wonder if some sleet will mix in here and with cold temperatures aloft today?

It was sleeting in Palestine around lunch.

[Ralph's Weather]

Wonder if some sleet will mix in here and with cold temperatures aloft today?

It was sleeting in Palestine around lunch.

No sleet at the moment. Though it seems close to it.

[srainhoutx]

Can anyone tell me what the Euro shows for SE TX temps and precip wise?

Some potential for sleet, freezing rain possibly ending with a few flakes of snow if the ECMWF solution is correct for later next week into Saturday. Still way too soon to know with any certainty exactly what our sensible weather will be, though.

[Brent]

GFS parallel still has some light accumulations in N TX, mostly next Friday(though it has a dusting or so Wednesday Night and some snow along the Red River Thursday)

[Snowman67]

Tuesday night/Wednesday and beyond...
Another front looks to come through in the midweek, though there
is significant disagreement in timing amongst the model guidance.
The GFS is extremely fast with the frontal passage, while the Euro
lags almost a day behind. As a result, low rain chances are
splattered through Wednesday, though in reality, this likely will
need to be tightened up as this time grows closer. A little
surface low shows up in both underneath a shortwave, which brings
higher rain chances, likely Thursday and Thursday night. After
that, there is agreement in strong northerly flow bringing in a
strong arctic push. If you favor the GFS, this comes Friday night,
and if lingering precip isn`t wrapped up yet, we may have to talk
about wintry precip. On the slow end, the slow Euro brings in the
cold air Saturday, and wintry precip isn`t as big a concern. Given
the uncertainty, and more impactful weather in the interim,
there remains not much need to get too wrapped up in specifics
just yet. There will be time ahead to focus on this scenario.


HGX mentioning possibility of wintry precipitation late next week.

[Brent]

18z GFS

First wave Wednesday/Thursday is mostly in Oklahoma. Maybe a brief mix in the northern metro at the onset. 40s and some rain on Thursday.

Quick shot of light snow Friday

[Ntxw]

Trends weren't too bad today. Aside from 12z GFS whiffing, storm is still around albeit light precip

[Brent]

Just FWIW... the GFS has the polar vortex invading the country again at the end of the run lol... there is very little warmth to be found. I see one, maybe two days above normal once next week's front arrives.