Texas Winter 2010-2011

[HockeyTx82]

Don't give up on tomorrow's storm quite yet. That dotted black line was on Denton this morning, now it's further south and our chances have gone up..............

[orangeblood]

Anyone check out the GFS ensembles? Virtually all of them are colder than the GFS early next week.

The 0Z and 6Z GFS ensembles were extremely cold for next week. Even some 15-20 degrees F below normal for a few days. The 12Z runs have since back off a little but still very cold none the less.

This doesn't appear to be confined to just the US either. Has anyone noticed how much cold air is around in the middle troposphere across the Northern Hemisphere ? I don't think I've ever seen this much cold air dominate a Northern Hemisphere map like this. We just need that cold transported down to the surface i.e. closed upper lows and it'll become a very interesting week next week.

How are you seeing these cold tropospheric temps? 500 MB range? JB was right ?!?!?!??!

Yep, lower heights at the 500mb level are dominating the Northern Hemisphere map

[Ntxw]

Hunker down folks. Next few weeks should get interesting. Unlike last year, I doubt there will be a late January thaw. This is anything but ordinary considering the Nina levels and no analog since satellite has been around for this type of pattern so if anyone says they have a latch on it, they would be suspect. As a few have mentioned last year, cold winters come in bunches, and I wouldn't doubt that something larger is at play.

[DentonGal]

Out of Fort Worth this afternoon....Hmmmm...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
252 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
252 PM
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS QUICKLY THROUGH NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
IN THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY FROM THE TOP DOWN DUE TO LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD WHERE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...YET THERE WILL STILL BE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM THE SURFACE UP TO ABOUT 5000 FEET...AND
SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR. AS THE MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD WEAKEN TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING. THE
MAV/MET/MEX TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT HOVER JUST ABOVE
FREEZING FOR A WHILE...BUT WE FEEL THESE ARE TOO HIGH. THEY ARE
THE RESULT OF A MODEL INDUCED DRY ADIABATIC LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE
WHICH RESULTS IN A WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURE. WE FEEL THAT THIS
LAYER WILL NOT BE SO PRONOUNCED...AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER WHICH DROPS THEM BELOW FREEZING.

THAT BEING SAID...THE FREEZING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
PALO PINTO TO CANTON. IN THE SOUTH WE EXPECT VERY LIGHT GLAZINGS
ON ELEVATED SURFACES...INCREASING TO A HUNDREDTH OR TWO NORTHEAST
TOWARDS PARIS. IN NORTHEAST TEXAS THESE AMOUNTS MAY AFFECT
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...BUT FORTUNATELY THE VERY DRY WINDY
CONDITIONS THAT WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE RAIN SHOULD SUBLIMATE ANY
ICE THAT FORMS.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OCCASIONALLY ABOVE 35 MPH WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS. WINDS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS AFTER SUNSET.

NORTH TEXAS WILL GET QUITE COLD BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEENS
EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF NORTH
TEXAS...AND LOW 20S ELSEWHERE. ANY WATER ON ROADWAYS...SUCH AS
PUDDLES...LOW SPOTS...LAWN SPRINKLER SPRAY...WILL TURN TO ICE.

AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP...MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
INDICATED...AND ISOLATED THUNDER MAY BE HEARD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BIT OF WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS.

[northtxboy]

All of this is starting to remind me of the last winter storm we had. Does anyone else see that or is it just me?

[Ntxw]

All of this is starting to remind me of te last winter storm we had. Does anyone else see that or is it just me?

This is quite different. Set up wise. There is no potent low pressure creating cold air, this is lifting created by a cold front. You had 2-3 inch qpf from the last system. You're talking hundreths of an inch here at most. Even at best it wouldn't amount anything like last time.

[northtxboy]

Out of Fort Worth this afternoon....Hmmmm...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
252 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
252 PM
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS QUICKLY THROUGH NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
IN THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY FROM THE TOP DOWN DUE TO LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD WHERE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...YET THERE WILL STILL BE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM THE SURFACE UP TO ABOUT 5000 FEET...AND
SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR. AS THE MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD WEAKEN TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING. THE
MAV/MET/MEX TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT HOVER JUST ABOVE
FREEZING FOR A WHILE...BUT WE FEEL THESE ARE TOO HIGH. THEY ARE
THE RESULT OF A MODEL INDUCED DRY ADIABATIC LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE
WHICH RESULTS IN A WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURE. WE FEEL THAT THIS
LAYER WILL NOT BE SO PRONOUNCED...AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER WHICH DROPS THEM BELOW FREEZING.

THAT BEING SAID...THE FREEZING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
PALO PINTO TO CANTON. IN THE SOUTH WE EXPECT VERY LIGHT GLAZINGS
ON ELEVATED SURFACES...INCREASING TO A HUNDREDTH OR TWO NORTHEAST
TOWARDS PARIS. IN NORTHEAST TEXAS THESE AMOUNTS MAY AFFECT
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...BUT FORTUNATELY THE VERY DRY WINDY
CONDITIONS THAT WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE RAIN SHOULD SUBLIMATE ANY
ICE THAT FORMS.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OCCASIONALLY ABOVE 35 MPH WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS. WINDS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS AFTER SUNSET.

NORTH TEXAS WILL GET QUITE COLD BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEENS
EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF NORTH
TEXAS...AND LOW 20S ELSEWHERE. ANY WATER ON ROADWAYS...SUCH AS
PUDDLES...LOW SPOTS...LAWN SPRINKLER SPRAY...WILL TURN TO ICE.

AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP...MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
INDICATED...AND ISOLATED THUNDER MAY BE HEARD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BIT OF WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS.

hmmmmm some one here said that we were going to get freezing rain on thursday I wonder who that was??

[northtxboy]

All of this is starting to remind me of te last winter storm we had. Does anyone else see that or is it just me?

This is quite different. Set up wise. There is no potent low pressure creating cold air, this is lifting created by a cold front. You had 2-3 inch qpf from the last system. You're talking hundreths of an inch here at most. Even at best it wouldn't amount anything like last time.

I dont know man I think this could be another big snow storm for us in north texas.

[downsouthman1]

All of this is starting to remind me of te last winter storm we had. Does anyone else see that or is it just me?

This is quite different. Set up wise. There is no potent low pressure creating cold air, this is lifting created by a cold front. You had 2-3 inch qpf from the last system. You're talking hundreths of an inch here at most. Even at best it wouldn't amount anything like last time.

I dont know man I think this could be another big snow storm for us in north texas.

When -removed-.

[Ntxw]

I dont know man I think this could be another big snow storm for us in north texas.

I hope so, but I'll bet $10 donation to Storm2k that it won't be. Meaning more than an 1 inch of snow for DFW or more than 2 anywhere along the Red River within the FW CWA.

[DentonGal]

I dont know man I think this could be another big snow storm for us in north texas.

I hope so, but I'll bet $10 donation to Storm2k that it won't be. Meaning more than an 1 inch of snow for DFW or more than 2 anywhere along the Red River within the FW CWA.

Are you guys talking about tomorrow or Monday?

[orangeblood]

All of this is starting to remind me of te last winter storm we had. Does anyone else see that or is it just me?

Not really, complete different pattern starting to take over - no pineapple express this winter season. It has actually been quite a bit milder than last winter up to this point. Now, that all appears to be changing in a big way but towards a completely different setup than what we had last year.

[northtxboy]

I dont know man I think this could be another big snow storm for us in north texas.

I hope so, but I'll bet $10 donation to Storm2k that it won't be. Meaning more than an 1 inch of snow for DFW or more than 2 anywhere along the Red River within the FW CWA.

Lets make this fun,,,10 is cheap lets go $100

[Portastorm]

Uh, let's take the wagering stuff offline. Y'all can PM each other and figure it out.

Thank you!

[northtxboy]

Uh, let's take the wagering stuff offline. Y'all can PM each other and figure it out.

Thank you!

Hey Portastorm!!!!!!!,,,,sorry will do

[Ntxw]

Portastorm, that was a joke. Though donating to S2k isn't a bad idea! I honestly don't know where northtxboy is getting this idea, I'm guessing it is a wishcast. I hope it happens for him though!

Edit: Unless he is talking about next week, then I'd be in the ballpark too, but judging from the quotes of this afternoon's AFD, northtxboy is pointing out tomorrow my guess.

Edit 2: Nvm clarified! He meant next week

[Portastorm]

Portastorm, that was a joke. Though donating to S2k isn't a bad idea! I honestly don't know where northtxboy is getting this idea, I'm guessing it is a wishcast. I hope it happens for him though!

Sorry. I had my Moderator hat on and I had no way of knowing it was a joke. I was making sure our site remains "family friendly."

If it was real, something tells me others would want to cut in on your action!

[DFW Stormwatcher]

lol, betting on the winter weather possibilities in North Texas. Something tells me the house would be a huge winner in that arena. There have been those before who made a big score on a couple of forecasts only to pay for it later, never an I told you so from WxMan 57 and the other pro mets:)

[Ntxw]

MJO is officially in phase 7. Mighty interesting.

[Tig70]

Any precip. for the Lubbock area in the near future? We're at 70 days with zero measurable precipitation. I'll trade some blowing dirt for a little rain, sleet or snow! Deal? Anyone? Hello....?

Really enjoying (and learning a lot from) this board btw.