Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

The SOI is going down again as you said but the elusive El Nino is still hiding.

No El Nino from it, but we can still get the Subtropical Jet to kick in with the -SOI (westerlies) to allow the recent MJO burst to progress!

[Ntxw]

Hopefully the 12z euro will quell some of the 0z panic. Still a monster -EPO ridge and building high pressure coming from Russia to Alaska as an omega block comes in from the Aleutians.

[Rgv20]

Yeap 12zECMWF is a much better run for Cold Weather to come down the US..

[knoxtnhorn]

As a lover of all things frozen - and a teacher with 8 snow days built into the schedule - I am rooting like hell for something, anything.

Just wanted to again say thanks for the meteorological education and entertainment this particular page provides each and every day. Keep up the good work.

- Texan living in East Tennessee

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Hopefully the 12z euro will quell some of the 0z panic. Still a monster -EPO ridge and building high pressure coming from Russia to Alaska as an omega block comes in from the Aleutians.

http://i47.tinypic.com/wsjipt.gif

http://i49.tinypic.com/euk2zk.gif

Your panic not my panic!

It could bring nasty ice rain and below freezing temps well down to the coast WITHOUT snow.

I liked the other map.

[GaryHughes]

With the drought situation here in Texas it's good to see the forecast include the term Heavy Rains across a large portion of the State
The recent snow and cold rain events have brought the rye grass back for my livestock.

Hope the upcoming Winter Weather brings more snow cover to boost it along!

[PTPatrick]

Agree today's euro seems more promising. It seems like next weekend is getting some good agreement between at least a quick shot of plains cold. Things seem to diverge on whether the mother load will drop down in th week following. She the 0z euro seem to shunt it east into ontarios, the 12 has it back over Saskatchewan and Alberta. Gfs seems to agree with that in the 240 hr frame but still shunts the cold east in the longer term without the second big shot. Will remain to be seen but I'm waiting for some good cold and snow next weekend here in Denver after we flirt with 60 this coming week.

[funster]

It sounds like warm air and rain is going to do a number on snow cover to the north. This could make it more difficult for the extreme cold air to get down to Texas. The Weather Channel even has an article, Has Winter Already Peaked? http://www.weather.com/news/weather-win ... r-20130103

Even if the brutal cold does not happen there is still snow possibilities. February usually seems to be our best month.

[Ntxw]

Lets not go into the snow cover thing! We saw in December how just in a matter of days you go from no snow cover to record breaking. It relies on the pattern, if you get cold air in waves, it will build. There will be a number of systems to replenish. As JB talked about, it will likely extend to I-20 by the time we get to Feb and maybe even as close as the gulf coast region of I-10. Gboudx posted a link to Larry Cosgrove's newsletter, good read as any about the potential for frozen precip in the south.

[vbhoutex]

While all of us in Texas are more than interested in the future major arctic outbreak possibilities, we can't lose sight of the near term either. This is meteorologist Jeff Lindner's take on Texas weather Tues.-Thurs.:

MAJOR STORM SYSTEM
Increasing potential for widespread heavy rainfall and severe weather Tues-Thurs.

A powerful upper level storm system currently of the California coast will bring high impact weather to much of the state of TX this week.

Discussion:

The potent upper level system will dig SE into N MX over the next 24 hours resulting in the activation of the cold frontal boundary over the western Gulf of Mexico. This front will begin to return northward as a warm front, while above the surface strong moisture advection brings clouds and developing rainfall rapidly northward off the western Gulf by late Monday night. This is in response to deepen moisture profiles and increasing large scale lift. The powerful upper level storm moves into and across TX from the Big Bend area toward NC TX on Tues-Thurs. Surface low pressure will form somewhere over the lower Rio Grande plains and track ENE to NE across SC into EC TX Tues-Wed bringing a warm front northward over nearly all of SE TX. Widespread heavy rainfall is likely with this set up along with sporadic severe weather.

Heavy Rainfall/Flood Threat:

Models and HPC QPF guidance is really pegging the area with some large totals. Moisture level do increase significantly late Monday into Tuesday with PWS approaching 1.6-1.8 inches on Tuesday….which is above +2SD of normal for early January and at or above maximum expected values. This alone raises a warning flag for excessive rainfall, but combine those moisture levels with sustained lift and surface boundaries such as a warm front or slow moving cold front and the potential for flooding rainfall increases. Forecast soundings show a nearly saturated air column by Tuesday afternoon suggesting efficient rainfall processes…or high rainfall rates. Model guidance has been fairly consistent on the placement of amounts of rainfall with this event.

Expect widespread 2-4 inches across much of the area with isolated totals of 4-6 inches possible. Given already moist to wet grounds much of this rainfall is going to run-off. Additionally hourly rainfall rates under the stronger storms may average 1-3 inches suggesting a higher urban flooding threat. With the upper level system slowing as it moves into TX, the threat for training thunderstorms will be increasing and be prolonged from late Tuesday into Wednesday evening. Significant rises on area watersheds appears likely with the amount of rainfall forecasted.

A Flash Flood Watch will likely be required if forecasted rainfall amounts continue to look likely.

Severe Weather:

This system will be highly dynamic with a well defined warm sector spreading inland over the TX coastal plains overspread by strong winds aloft. Track of the surface low will be important for defining where the greatest severe weather threat will reside…best determination at this time is for the surface low to track from near Laredo toward College Station and then toward NW LA with the warm front moving inland across all of SE TX. Elevated instability above the retreating cold dome on Monday night into Tuesday morning will support a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms near the warm front or from north of Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. Low level wind shear will increase on Tuesday as ESE to SE surface winds veer to SW mid level flow and increase with height producing strong low level wind shear. Thunderstorms that develop along the warm front or in the warm sector will have very favorable low level turning in place for updraft rotation. Low level helicity values increase to 300-500 m^2/s^2 on Tuesday supporting tornado production in supercell type thunderstorms. Only limiting factor may be a lack of good instability with forecasted CAPE values of 400-800 J/Kg. The setup is similar to the 1-9-12 tornado outbreak over SE TX, only this event will be much longer in duration and wind fields slightly stronger.

Main severe threat will be damaging winds and tornadoes. Some sort of squall line or MCS feature may eventually develop over the coastal bend into C TX Wed-Wed PM and spread toward the coast ahead of a Pacific cold front/dry line. Area may very well be in for a prolonged (12-24 hour) period of severe weather threat from Tuesday PM to Wed PM.

SPC has already outlooked the SW parts of the area for severe weather on Tuesday and much of the area on Wednesday.

[Texas Snowman]

From Joe B earlier this afternoon: "@BigJoeBastardi: US COLD SHOT, LIKE RUSSIA IN 2010 HEADED RIGHT FOR THE HEART OF THE SUMMER HEAT."

[justinggibbs]

My interest is up for Severe Weather Potential too, shear is very impressive, at least some reasonable instability. 12z GFS tries to turn the wave more negative too which certainly would not hurt chances for severe. I'm watching mainly for the valley and far south Texas, looks like the best chances may be north of here, but something to watch closely for sure given the shear that is present. To me it seems like Tuesday late into Wednesday would have the best potential for more severe weather, with the squall line/what have you later maybe having more speed shear and a little less instability to work with.

_____________________________________
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

For those Texas members that want to have information about the severe weather and rain aspects,you can go to the U.S & Caribbean weather forum.

viewforum.php?f=24

2013 U.S Severe Weather (Videos / Stats / Forecasts) thread

[wxman57]

Canadian puts 1061mb in Alaska and the Yukon

Right where it belongs! Could use a bit of heavy rain across Texas. I had my share last year (62+ inches) so the rest of Texas can have it.

[Ntxw]

Right where it belongs! Could use a bit of heavy rain across Texas. I had my share last year (62+ inches) so the rest of Texas can have it.

How about 1056mb in Montana on the 18z GFS? I think it would love a home there

[Texas Snowman]

Maybe Mr. Cavanaugh reads Ntxw here on the forum! Fort Worth NWS mentions potential for some winter weather next weekend:

"THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...JUST KEPT LIGHT RAIN IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AT THIS TIME AS THERE WAS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF
SATURATION OR FORCING FOR ASCENT IN MASS FIELDS NEAR WHERE THE
MODELS WERE PRODUCING QPF. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE THAN SPURIOUS
QPF IN COOL AIR BEFORE INTRODUCING ANY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY."

[Rgv20]

Bring on the Rain!!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
459 PM CST SUN JAN 6 2013

TXZ229>234-239>247-071100-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LAREDO...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...
ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...
INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...
WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
459 PM CST SUN JAN 6 2013

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...AND MAINLY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY
NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER MEXICO...ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL BECOME
MORE MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

BESIDES THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
PROVIDE A GOOD FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE RETURNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING
DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. SOME OF THE STORMS WHICH DEVELOP NEAR
THE BOUNDARY COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING MARGINALLY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE CONCERN FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MEXICO AND
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS WELL.

ON TOP OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
AREA...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOILS OVER
SOUTH TEXAS ARE GENERALLY VERY DRY...PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND APPROACH THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
END...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTH TEXAS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN
BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN COASTAL BEND...BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL BEND...INCLUDING CORPUS
CHRISTI...AND 4 OR MORE INCHES OVER THE VICTORIA AREA. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE VICTORIA
AREA AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND.

RESIDENTS...SPOTTERS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT. LISTEN
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
ON THIS SITUATION. YOU CAN ALSO KEEP UPDATED ON OUR WEBSITE (ALL
LOWERCASE): http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CORPUS CHRISTI

[Palmer divide shadow]

Dear 1061 mb high.your more than welcome in these parts of the rockies:-)

[GaryHughes]

Cavanaugh is very good with his updates, this afternoons discussion was very in-depth.

[GaryHughes]

Right where it belongs! Could use a bit of heavy rain across Texas. I had my share last year (62+ inches) so the rest of Texas can have it.

How about 1056mb in Montana on the 18z GFS? I think it would love a home there

Wow Ntwx, that would bode well for all the Winter
loving folks around here .... Bring on the snow!

NWS FW mentioned a possibility of snow on the back side of the cold front this coming weekend, anyone else see this?