Texas Winter 2016-2017

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starsfan65
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2501 Postby starsfan65 » Fri Dec 30, 2016 7:16 pm

What does the 18z GFS run say?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2502 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Dec 30, 2016 7:42 pm

-1 here and 6 inches of new snow.... ski for 8 hours today and another 8 tomorrow then I'm bringing the cold and snow back
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2503 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Dec 30, 2016 7:44 pm

starsfan65 wrote:What does the 18z GFS run say?


Another variation of the limitless possibilities. The Pacific has a few things to workout before the models can start to lock in on a solution.

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2504 Postby starsfan65 » Fri Dec 30, 2016 7:54 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:What does the 18z GFS run say?


Another variation of the limitless possibilities. The Pacific has a few things to workout before the models can start to lock in on a solution.

Image
Which one will give us the Severe Weather on Sunday Night?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2505 Postby bevolon » Fri Dec 30, 2016 8:49 pm

When is the next run?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2506 Postby ronyan » Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:58 pm

bevolon wrote:When is the next run?


GFS starts at 4am, 10am, 4pm, 10pm central time.
Euro at 11:30am and pm.

Those are approximately when the models start, check around an hour later to get the full output.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2507 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 30, 2016 10:00 pm

ronyan wrote:
bevolon wrote:When is the next run?


GFS starts at 4am, 10am, 4pm, 10pm central time.
Euro at 11:30am and pm.

Those are approximately when the models start, check around an hour later to get the full output.


0z GFS will be running here in the next half hour. The period we are looking at should be fully on the table by 10 to 10:30
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2508 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:08 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Can anyone tell me what the Euro shows for SE TX temps and precip wise?
A quick look without a lot of analysis says Fri.-Sat. could be very interesting in the cold and precip categories. Not looking like we will get much above freezing on Friday and if the models are underestimating the depth and or strength of the cold we may end up with some winter precip during that time period. Still a little bit too far out to put a lock on it yet, but the trend is definitely there keep it within the realm of probability. JMHO. There are others on here much better at analyzing the models than I am.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2509 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:09 pm

0z GFS looks like it's going to be a big change from previous runs. Energy is a lot slower coming out of the west so far through 120 hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2510 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:13 pm

GFS much further south/much weaker with the Wednesday energy. Just a little stripe of rain between DFW and Austin, last run had widespread snow in Oklahoma
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2511 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:17 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:0z GFS looks like it's going to be a big change from previous runs. Energy is a lot slower coming out of the west so far through 120 hours.


It looks to be stuck off of coastal Oregon...
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2512 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:18 pm

Thursday is totally dry on this run :roll: DFW temps in the 40s
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2513 Postby orangeblood » Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:22 pm

Wow, the GFS went to the solution the Canadian showed a few runs back...the cut off solution should probably be on the table at this point, which would take the southern plains winter storm off the table
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2514 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:22 pm

Energy is finally starting to move east across Utah on Friday. Will it be cold enough for frozen precip this run?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2515 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:23 pm

DFW finally hits 32 Friday morning yayyyy. No precip really anywhere close.

Rain in East Texas, snow in Kansas and Arkansas... no precip in between Friday.
Last edited by Brent on Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2516 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:26 pm

0Z Canadian is the cutoff solution too. Windshield wipers and back to the drawing board? :lol:

GFS is hardly an arctic blast, shunts most of it to the north and towards lakes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2517 Postby orangeblood » Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:26 pm

The cut off solution seems to be backed up by the 0Z NAM as well...
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2518 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:27 pm

Ntxw wrote:0Z Canadian is the cutoff solution too. Windshield wipers and back to the drawing board? :lol:


Yeah what a big shift with the 0z runs so far. Will the Euro hold suit?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2519 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:33 pm

the GFS isn't even really cold lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#2520 Postby starsfan65 » Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:35 pm

Brent wrote:the GFS isn't even really cold lol
This GFS is a joke.
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