Texas Winter 2017-2018
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
We may not get out of the 30's here in SE Tx on Christmas. Would be a shame to waste that cold air.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:We may not get out of the 30's here in SE Tx on Christmas. Would be a shame to waste that cold air.
With the way the subtropical jet has been for us lately you never know what could happen.
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
A greater degree of run-to-run
consistency among the longer range guidance regarding the
development of this axis of mid-level frontogenesis lends higher
confidence in some precipitation on Christmas Eve. With the lift
and sufficient moisture in place, anything that falls will likely
be in the form of snow flurries/light snow given the cold profile.
The most likely area for snow flurries/light snow will be north
of I-20 on Christmas Eve and perhaps early Christmas Day. At this
point in time, heavy precipitation rates don`t appear likely and
impacts should remain low, but we will keep an eye on this.
Regardless of any winter precipitation, it looks COLD for
Christmas Day and beyond.
consistency among the longer range guidance regarding the
development of this axis of mid-level frontogenesis lends higher
confidence in some precipitation on Christmas Eve. With the lift
and sufficient moisture in place, anything that falls will likely
be in the form of snow flurries/light snow given the cold profile.
The most likely area for snow flurries/light snow will be north
of I-20 on Christmas Eve and perhaps early Christmas Day. At this
point in time, heavy precipitation rates don`t appear likely and
impacts should remain low, but we will keep an eye on this.
Regardless of any winter precipitation, it looks COLD for
Christmas Day and beyond.
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#neversummer
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Yukon Cornelius
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Any type of frozen precipitation would be a plus but I'm just happy that this wont be another shorts and tshirt Christmas.
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#neversummer
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ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Any type of frozen precipitation would be a plus but I'm just happy that this wont be another shorts and tshirt Christmas.
A-freakin-men
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
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Rgv20
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion..
The front will provide a slight chance to
chance of showers...mainly across the coastal sections...Friday
into Fri night. The rest of the forecast period is highly
dependent on a surge of colder air and moisture across south TX
through the weekend into Christmas Day. The global models have
trended colder Sunday into Monday and one of the global
models...the GFS...is progging more moisture across the CWA Sunday
and Monday than the ECMWF. In addition...the GFS is currently progging
850mb temperatures below freezing similar to the snowfall event
on the 8th of December. At the very least...the models are in
agreement with colder temperatures towards the end of the forecast
period so Christmas may actually "feel like" Christmas.
Confidence is very low for now as far as any wintry mix of
precipitation for Monday but cannot rule out a mix of light
rain/sleet/snow similar to the winter weather that occurred over a
week ago. Will mention a slight chance to chance of light rain
Sunday into Monday for now.
The front will provide a slight chance to
chance of showers...mainly across the coastal sections...Friday
into Fri night. The rest of the forecast period is highly
dependent on a surge of colder air and moisture across south TX
through the weekend into Christmas Day. The global models have
trended colder Sunday into Monday and one of the global
models...the GFS...is progging more moisture across the CWA Sunday
and Monday than the ECMWF. In addition...the GFS is currently progging
850mb temperatures below freezing similar to the snowfall event
on the 8th of December. At the very least...the models are in
agreement with colder temperatures towards the end of the forecast
period so Christmas may actually "feel like" Christmas.
Confidence is very low for now as far as any wintry mix of
precipitation for Monday but cannot rule out a mix of light
rain/sleet/snow similar to the winter weather that occurred over a
week ago. Will mention a slight chance to chance of light rain
Sunday into Monday for now.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Yukon Cornelius
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
0z-12z GFS said, "enjoy your Christmas snow". 18z GFS said. "lol, nah just kidding".
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
GFS Cold 
No precip
the flurries Christmas Eve pretty much die at the border
1065 mb high in Montana on Christmas
Teens in DFW the morning after Christmas
No precip
the flurries Christmas Eve pretty much die at the border
1065 mb high in Montana on Christmas
Teens in DFW the morning after Christmas
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Rgv20
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Yukon Cornelius wrote:0z-12z GFS said, "enjoy your Christmas snow". 18z GFS said. "lol, nah just kidding".
Me: What happen to my Christmas Snow??
18zGFS: lol Nope
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Aye carumba!! The 18z GFS is brought to you by Grey Goose Vodka!
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
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starsfan65
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Portastorm wrote:Aye carumba!! The 18z GFS is brought to you by Grey Goose Vodka!
I Like that!!
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Highs below freezing to the coast the day after Christmas
DFW struggles into the mid 20s
Definitely no precip with this level of cold
DFW struggles into the mid 20s
Definitely no precip with this level of cold
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ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Brent wrote:GFS Cold
No precip
the flurries Christmas Eve pretty much die at the border
1065 mb high in Montana on Christmas
Teens in DFW the morning after Christmas
1066 in colorado the day after! Teens to the gulf coast
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
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Rgv20
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Yeap It lost my Christmas Snow but OMG the Arctic has moved to the midwest lol
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Yep ... this 18z GFS shows a good, old-fashioned Texas pipe-buster Arctic front. Many areas of the state would be below freezing to substantially below freezing for at least 48 hours.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Folks, the GFS has a 1054 mb high into North Texas on the 27th! Are you kidding me? 
And the Artic air is reloading at hour 234 with a 1064 mb high in Alaska.
And the Artic air is reloading at hour 234 with a 1064 mb high in Alaska.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Big cutoff sitting over Cali with lots of deep cold air out in front.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Looks like a winter storm incoming at day 10
Icy mess on December 28th-29th
Icy mess on December 28th-29th
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
From the infamous Joe Bastardi via Twitter:GFS continues its now repetitive idea of PATTERN DRIVEN arctic armageddon which I will now label #arcticgeddon an evil cousin of the much hyped Polar vortex of winter of 13-14. Any outrageous model runs will have that # Peace to all who love actual winter for the Holidays
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Tammie - Sherman TX
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
If that strong of a high verifies that far south then I think the GFS just severely underdone temperatures. The lowest it gets here in Wharton County is 25 on the 18z.
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