Texas Winter 2012-2013

[South Texas Storms]

Here is my latest weather article! Much needed rainfall is likely for much of Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday!
http://www.examiner.com/article/heavy-r ... b_articles

[Rgv20]

Brownsville evening discussion.....Looks like Severe weather chances are going up for South Texas..

GOING A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE THE 00Z NAM ALSO PROJECTS A
45 TO 60KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COUPLED WITH THE UPPER JET PUTS THE
REGION IN ABOUT 50 TO 55KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 30 TO 35 KTS
OF 0-1KM SHEAR PRODUCING AROUND 350 M2/S2 OF 0-1KM
HELICITY...WHICH IS AN UPWARD TREND FROM RUN TO RUN. NAM/GFS ALSO
CONTINUE TO WANT TO TILT THE UPPER LOW A LITTLE MORE NEGATIVE AS
IT SWINGS THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION DEEPENING THE SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL CYCLONE AHEAD OF IT MORE THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THERE ARE
OBVIOUSLY STILL QUESTIONS ABOUT WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION MIGHT
INITIATE BUT THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE CERTAINLY POSES A
NOTEWORTHY RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WIND/HAIL/TORNADOES AND
HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. /68-JGG/

[BigB0882]

It has been a slow night on here, the models aren't showing anything exciting tonight? lol

[Ntxw]

It has been a slow night on here, the models aren't showing anything exciting tonight? lol

We've beaten down just about every aspect of the pattern, nothing has changed much to add. All we can do for now is wait to see how cold they will trend in the coming days.

Snow aspect for north Texas/Oklahoma still in play on GFS tonight for the 13th+-

[HouTXmetro]

Sigh, same script different year. Models tease us in texas then back off. cold air arrival gets pushed further and further back, then rarely materializes.

[Snowman67]

With all the talk about the possibility of a negatively tilted trough causing severe weather in SE Texas, I found this to be helpful.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/

[Ntxw]

Sigh, same script different year. Models tease us in texas then back off. cold air arrival gets pushed further and further back, then rarely materializes.

They haven't backed off anything. Nothing has changed, we've laid down the time frame to be watching for

Edit: Maybe people just like maps to feel better. Maybe a swarm of 1050s to soothe the soul!

[GaryHughes]

It has been a slow night on here, the models aren't showing anything exciting tonight? lol

We've beaten down just about every aspect of the pattern, nothing has changed much to add. All we can do for now is wait to see how cold they will trend in the coming days.

Snow aspect for north Texas/Oklahoma still in play on GFS tonight for the 13th+-

http://i49.tinypic.com/34pff3l.gif

That looks like a pretty good snow for the Western portion of North Texas, 3.5 to 5+ inches.

[GaryHughes]

Thanks to all that post on this board, my wife said to me earlier today that she cannot understand why I spend so much time visiting this site .... well I told her, you just have to love the Weather and the complexity of the posts and the great maps/models.

[DonWrk]

Here is a good write up about the events in the coming weeks. http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/wea ... is-coming-

[Rgv20]

Severe Weather Threat unfolding for South Texas..

Brownsville NWS Morning Discussion

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO TUES NIGHT. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY NOT
EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE METEOROLOGICAL INGREDIENTS APPEAR
TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE
BIG BEND. INITIAL THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED TORNADOES BASED
ON THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THE SECOND THREAT APPEARS TO BE
STRONG WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL OF A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
MOVES NORTHWARD TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY INCREASING THE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO
POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TIMING AND MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING.

[Tejas89]

Here is a good write up about the events in the coming weeks.

http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/weather_blogs/the-great-reversal-is-coming-

That's a good, quick explanation of things. It looks like he has the extreme cold shunted way east of Texas though!

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW also talk cold front and winter precip for next week in the last part of their AFD

GENERALLY WARM AND FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP
HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THIS TIMING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EAST
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS COOL DOWN INTO THE 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE WINTER WEATHER NEXT SUNDAY...BUT IT ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
SO STRONG AND SO FAR BACK BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL STAY WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM WHICH POINT TO DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER SUNDAY.

[NDG]

Here is a good write up about the events in the coming weeks.

http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/weather_blogs/the-great-reversal-is-coming-

That's a good, quick explanation of things. It looks like he has the extreme cold shunted way east of Texas though!

That guy Mike Masco is being a bit east coast bias, he is banking on the NAO crashing negative, but for the last couple of days the GFS ensembles have backed away in crashing the NAO, at least through the next couple of weeks.
Also, notice the last map that he used where he has the graphics showing the -EPO, -AO and the -NAO, it is the ECMWF's run from a couple of nights ago, which we all agree that most likely is erronous.

[orangeblood]

Couple of thoughts this morning:

1) I would be very surprised if there wasn't some sort of southern plains winter storm in the January 13-16th time period....there's a lot of Upper Level energy coming into the southwest along with a heck of fight across the southern US between warm and frigid cold. Both the GFS and Euro show this scenario but differ on timing, with the GFS around the 13th while the Euro produces a storm around the 15-16th. After this storm, frigid cold sets in with the potential for a few sub-freezing days for DFW late next week.

2) The GFS ensembles have started to flip flop on how long this extremely cold pattern will last. They've now started to break down the Alaskan ridge forcing warmer Pacific air into the pattern. A little skeptical of this due to the fact that the models seem to have a hard time handling these Stratospheric Warming Events, especially one of this magnitude. All of the players are on the playing field for a very cold pattern setting up....SSW, Polar Vortex splitting or collapsing , negative EPO, negative AO and negative NAO

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I hope this winter weather plays out, I could use a day off from work.

[DonWrk]

Here is a good write up about the events in the coming weeks.

http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/weather_blogs/the-great-reversal-is-coming-

That's a good, quick explanation of things. It looks like he has the extreme cold shunted way east of Texas though!

That guy Mike Masco is being a bit east coast bias, he is banking on the NAO crashing negative, but for the last couple of days the GFS ensembles have backed away in crashing the NAO, at least through the next couple of weeks.
Also, notice the last map that he used where he has the graphics showing the -EPO, -AO and the -NAO, it is the ECMWF's run from a couple of nights ago, which we all agree that most likely is erronous.

Yeah, I liked the way he explained some of the main players in this setup. The graphics and way he described it may help people understand a little better!

[gpsnowman]

I think I'm just as excited about the big rain event coming up than I am about any cold or snow that might follow. Well.........almost as excited. Winter, please follow.

[gboudx]

I think I'm just as excited about the big rain event coming up than I am about any cold or snow that might follow. Well.........almost as excited. Winter, please follow.

Me too, but I'm going to try and leave work a little early to go hit my favorite mountain bike trail. Once all this rain falls, the trail will be unusable for about a week.

[gpsnowman]

I think I'm just as excited about the big rain event coming up than I am about any cold or snow that might follow. Well.........almost as excited. Winter, please follow.

Me too, but I'm going to try and leave work a little early to go hit my favorite mountain bike trail. Once all this rain falls, the trail will be unusable for about a week.

Yeah. This rain should keep the ground moist for a while. Multiple inch rains will do some serious good for the entire state.