Texas Winter 2017-2018

[wxman57]

Lucy has control of the models, after Charlie Brown's successful kick earlier this month. Careful believing anything beyond 3-4 days.

[Cpv17]

Lucy has control of the models, after Charlie Brown's successful kick earlier this month. Careful believing anything beyond 3-4 days.
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/4AzfzR3Zhrk/hqdefault.jpg

I have a hard time believing anything past 2 days lol

[starsfan65]

Lucy has control of the models, after Charlie Brown's successful kick earlier this month. Careful believing anything beyond 3-4 days.

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/4AzfzR3Zhrk/hqdefault.jpg

I have a hard time believing anything past 2 days lol

1 thing for sure it will be very cold.

[wxman57]

Well, the one thing I think that we can take from the models is that some cold air will be coming down south later this week and in the following weeks. As for any winter weather (snow/sleet/freezing rain), I wouldn't trust any model projection until we're only a day or so away from the event. Nor would I trust any predictions of extreme cold or mega-highs coming down beyond 3-4 days out.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’m a masochist... gimme 15 degrees and 12 hours of heavy thunder sleet!

[aggiecutter]

I’m a masochist... gimme 15 degrees and 12 hours of heavy thunder sleet!

Back in January of 1978, Texarkana received 6" of sleet. I think it sleeted for 36 hours with temperatures in the low 20's.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’m a masochist... gimme 15 degrees and 12 hours of heavy thunder sleet!

Back in January of 1978, Texarkana received 6" of sleet. I think it sleeted for 36 hours with temperatures in the low 20's.

Weather tingle

[Ntxw]

Speaking of mega highs, GFS still has some outrageous HPs in about a week. In a few days 1050mbs+ shows up in Canada. Will be exciting to see if these challenge records



I mean, why not a high in the low 20s on Christmas day?

[Rgv20]

Joe Bastardi thinks there could be a damaging freeze for the lower RGV....his analogs are 1962.1983, and 1989

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/942892896407212032

[gpsnowman]

I am starting to rethink if I should bring a heavy coat to east Texas for Christmas. I wouldn't imagine too big of a difference in temperature three hours east.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Speaking of mega highs, GFS still has some outrageous HPs in about a week. In a few days 1050mbs+ shows up in Canada. Will be exciting to see if these challenge records

http://i68.tinypic.com/nq8hw0.png

I mean, why not a high in the low 20s on Christmas day?

If that were to verify I’d have to imagine that low 20s would be on the warm side.

[Brent]

If its gonna be that cold it better snow

I am imagining the gfs is kind of like what 1983 looked like

[SnowintheFalls]

This is from Steve McCauley's FB. Which German model is he referring to?


"So I am getting ready to prepare another supper from one of those home-delivery meal services. They literally send you EVERYTHING you need to cook up a decent meal. And how precious is this little egg carton included in tonight's meal!

But anyway, the main reason I posted this picture is I needed something to go with my update to the Christmas forecast. No doubt you have heard that nearly every computer model now is going for nothing of significance to occur. The Stat Method has not changed and continues to suggest that no SIGNIFICANT sleet, freezing rain, or snow (other than a passing flurry) is expected.

BUT ... for those who REALLY want a winter storm, you do have a computer model that continues to insist a crippling ice storm will strike nearly all of north Texas just in time for Christmas. Which model is predicting this apocalyptic winter storm? The American, Canadian, European, Japanese, Australian, Brazilian??? No ... it's the German Model.

I have only recently been introduced to the German weather forecast computer model, so I am not exactly familiar with its code, so I cannot speak to its accuracy. But I did find it interesting that of all the major models, this appears to be the last holdout calling for a major winter storm in our area.

Stay tuned for updates. Now time for supper prep!"

[ThunderSleetDreams]

:uarrow: I am starting to rethink if I should bring a heavy coat to east Texas for Christmas. I wouldn't imagine too big of a difference in temperature three hours east.

I’ll be in Longview and that is my plan.

[JayDT]

So how cold could we be talking if those mega highs did verify??

[iorange55]

If its gonna be that cold it better snow

I am imagining the gfs is kind of like what 1983 looked like

You know, I wonder how the models now would handle such an outbreak. We’ve had several runs 10+ days out showing extreme temps throughout the years, but nothing ever happens. This time, the models are still showing the extreme high building within 7 days now.

If this is a legit outbreak, something we haven’t seen in years, I wonder how much the models will fail with the temps. I imagine they’ll trend colder, but i guess we won’t truly know until we see the cold coming down the plains.

Btw...still think we get some snow around Christmas

[hamburgerman7070]

It definitely looks chilly in a week or so. Pretty strong hp coming down the Rockies. Ntwx or bubba hotep, what do we need to take place for the southern plains and mid south to have a good ashot at a winter storm with all this cold air around? That's what's confusing me.

[Ntxw]

So how cold could we be talking if those mega highs did verify??

Depends on how cold the air actually is Canada when it happens. Currently large area of -10s, some -20s in the northwest territories. -40s are just north of the Canadian archipelago. As the dome of high pressure builds, the air will get colder and get pushed further south out of the Arctic. The stronger the high the more intense the push.

If we start seeing -30s sink south along the Canadian Prairies then it will get quite cold, should such a high develop.

If there is a 1060HP+ high pressure dome sitting in Montana early next week, DFW will be in the single digits no question. Big IF

[Brent]

If its gonna be that cold it better snow

I am imagining the gfs is kind of like what 1983 looked like

You know, I wonder how the models now would handle such an outbreak. We’ve had several runs 10+ days out showing extreme temps throughout the years, but nothing ever happens. This time, the models are still showing the extreme high building within 7 days now.

If this is a legit outbreak, something we haven’t seen in years, I wonder how much the models will fail with the temps. I imagine they’ll trend colder, but i guess we won’t truly know until we see the cold coming down the plains.

Btw...still think we get some snow around Christmas

Oh i still like the Christmas timeframe for some snow even if its just a quick bout on the arctic front

I'm just hoping the air isnt so cold it kills our moisture. I kind of dont want 1983 level cold unless its after the snow lol

If we truly do get that cold though you'd definitely see single digits and probably a day or two where highs struggle to get above 20 in Dallas

[Ntxw]

Oh i still like the Christmas timeframe for some snow even if its just a quick bout on the arctic front

I'm just hoping the air isnt so cold it kills our moisture. I kind of dont want 1983 level cold unless its after the snow lol

If we truly do get that cold though you'd definitely see single digits and probably a day or two where highs struggle to get above 20 in Dallas

It would be nice to get a few inches high ratio powder from the arctic front. Then the cold locks it in for a few days . A person can dream.