Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Ralph's Weather]

Super light snow flurries in Texarkana.

Upper levels are already freezing?

I don't see why most precip over there wouldn't also be snow on Monday.

Texarkana may get a big dump of snow with this. Best base scenario there would be approaching a foot of all snow and worst case being 2 to 4" of sleet and snow.

[wxman57]

Models all in for 12Z. Only significant change I see is the EC ensembles a good bit warmer (less cold) for Wednesday here. Note that 18Z Monday spike in the EC and its ensembles. Probably an error.
It's interesting that there is better model agreement on Wednesday than Tuesday. I think the issue is the very shallow nature of the cold air Sun/Mon. The real push of colder air comes Monday afternoon/evening, as the upper trof passes (and precip ends). How deep will the cold air be Sun/Mon? How much may it modify? That's why models are so far apart then. Looks like some light rain around SE TX on Monday. Winter precip seems unlikely here. Again, note that afternoon highs are not plotted, just 12pm and 6pm. Temps may be 2-4F higher at 3pm.

[bubba hotep]

Thanks for the optimism compared to nearly everyone else today, Ralph! I hope you're right.

Most on the forum are near the big cities. This event is focused on our corner of the state. This still looks like a significant winter storm for East Texas.

12z EPS would make everyone happier, other than portions of OK. QPF bumped up everywhere else. Keep trending!

[Ralph's Weather]

Thanks for the optimism compared to nearly everyone else today, Ralph! I hope you're right.

Most on the forum are near the big cities. This event is focused on our corner of the state. This still looks like a significant winter storm for East Texas.

12z EPS would make everyone happier, other than portions of OK. QPF bumped up everywhere else. Keep trending!

I am really liking what I am seeing on models today, one more step in the right direction and the I-20 corridor will see some hefty snow totals start to show up. The next few runs of the meso scale models will be interesting to hopefully start to clarify details.

[Texas Snow]

Updated Graphics









Edit: Updated with Snow

[Ntxw]

Hugging 18z NAM now!

[jaguars_22]

Ntwx do you still think it will be colder down here or do you see it warming up like the models? Victoria?

[rwfromkansas]

Oh, huge shift north in 18z NAM. Interesting.

[Ralph's Weather]

Hugging 18z NAM now!

It is trending in right direction still needs to get wetter but that's enough to cause issues for many as is. Those 850mb temps are so borderline and we likely wont have a great understanding of how they will evolve until Sunday. Def looking like along I-20 and north will be cold enough at mid levels for not much freezing rain, but the sleet vs snow breakdown will be hard to nail and will greatly affect totals.

[txtwister78]

Latest NAM

[kirium]

Looks like central OKlahoma will get little to no snow around the OKC area.

Kind of sucks, if it's going to be frigid, give me snow.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Yall are rooting for ice? After numerous days of 110-118 this summer, basically too many to count. ill take dry cold all day long and be thrilled. Snow is just a plus during these cold spells. Keep that ice mess down there.

[BigB0882]

Can someone please post the NAM ice/sleet maps that show Louisiana? That only shows the western edge and it looks like it is showing some ice/sleet. Curious if that extends further east in Louisiana or not?

[Ntxw]

Ntwx do you still think it will be colder down here or do you see it warming up like the models? Victoria?

It's going to be colder and harder to moderate I think. Even the NAM is on the warmer side of other hi res. The only feature that could slow down the cold is the disturbance, since moisture is technically warmer air above. We'll have to wait and see how that plays out. South of the Red River the cold is shallow and dense and many times does not care about the upper flow.

[RNRoadWarrior]

Models all in for 12Z. Only significant change I see is the EC ensembles a good bit warmer (less cold) for Wednesday here. Note that 18Z Monday spike in the EC and its ensembles. Probably an error.
It's interesting that there is better model agreement on Wednesday than Tuesday. I think the issue is the very shallow nature of the cold air Sun/Mon. The real push of colder air comes Monday afternoon/evening, as the upper trof passes (and precip ends). How deep will the cold air be Sun/Mon? How much may it modify? That's why models are so far apart then. Looks like some light rain around SE TX on Monday. Winter precip seems unlikely here. Again, note that afternoon highs are not plotted, just 12pm and 6pm. Temps may be 2-4F higher at 3pm.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models12ZJan12HOU.JPG

I just need enough moisture to freeze Monday night and cancel school on Tuesday... and, I guess Wednesday would be too greedy.

[rwfromkansas]

Yall are rooting for ice? After numerous days of 110-118 this summer, basically too many to count. ill take dry cold all day long and be thrilled. Snow is just a plus during these cold spells. Keep that ice mess down there.

I think for my area it would honestly be more sleet and then snow regardless of models.

But, I want enough of something to cancel school and hopefully keep as many people off roads. This morning's trend of little of anything would be even more dangerous giving people a false sense of security.

[ElectricStorm]

NWS has just a 30% chance of snow Sunday now after having it at 50 earlier

But on the other hand classes are already cancelled for Tuesday so I'll take it

[gboudx]

Yall are rooting for ice? After numerous days of 110-118 this summer, basically too many to count. ill take dry cold all day long and be thrilled. Snow is just a plus during these cold spells. Keep that ice mess down there.

I don't care if there's wintry precip or not, but certainly not ice. I used to love the thought of it snowing, but that's when my boys were younger and we'd get the sleds and go to the middle school and slide down the hill. Their both grown and don't live at home anymore, so I don't really care.

[Wthrfan]

Looks like central OKlahoma will get little to no snow around the OKC area.

Kind of sucks, if it's going to be frigid, give me snow.

Just shows how everything has to line up perfectly to get snow even in Oklahoma. I’m bummed it’s looking like we are going to miss out totally in OKC.

[Stratton23]

Just give me something frozen, dry cold sucks, and cold and rainy in the mid 30’s is just as miserable, cold means nothing if their isnt any frozen precip