Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
344 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011

GAZ025-027-034>039-042>060-066>068-070-070845-
JACKSON-MADISON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-
GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-
BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-LAMAR-
344 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011

...A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF ON SUNDAY...THEN TRACK ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT THE PRECIPITATION FALLING MOSTLY
AS SNOW ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LA GRANGE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON LINE...
WITH GREATER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. A WINTRY MIX IS MORE LIKELY
FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH... WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
THERE. ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY ABREAST TO THE
LATEST FORECAST ON THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS DEVELOPING WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM.

[georgia_tech_swagger]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THU...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN EARLY WEEK WINTER STORM ACROSS THE CWFA. NOW ALL
12Z OPS RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS AND GEM SHOW A MILLER A TYPE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. THE LOW TAKES A SLOW TRACK
FROM THE LA COAST SUN EVENING...REACHING CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE TUE.
DEEP MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN NITE
AND CONTINUES ON MONDAY. THIS LIFT MOVES EAST MON NITE. HOWEVER...
DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
MON NITE AND FINALLY MOVES NE OF THE AREA TUE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF A NEAR ZERO ISOTHERMAL LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE H85 ZERO LINE DOES MOVE NORTH INTO THE CWFA. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD BE OVERDONE IF DYNAMIC COOLING AFFECTS TAKE OVER. THIS IS
BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THE JANUARY 1988 SNOW STORM WHERE A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVED THROUGH THE GULF AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT REMAINED OVER THE AREA...EVEN THO SYNOPTIC LIFT WAS WEAK. THIS
PRODUCED A LARGE AREA OF 1 FOOT ACCUMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY
WHETHER THIS MUCH SNOW DEVELOPS...HOWEVER IT IS IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY.

I HAVE LIKELY POP MOVING IN SUN NITE AND CONTINUING THRU MONDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN SNOW ACROSS ALL THE CWFA SUN NITE...WITH SLEET
MIXING IN SOUTH OF I-85 DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS P-TYPE PATTERN
CONTINUES MON NITE AND TUE AS PRECIP ENDS FROM THE SW. THEN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES TUE NITE THRU THU. EVEN WITH A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO
TEMPS AND QPF...WHICH I HAVE TAKEN...SNOWFALL WELL ABOVE WARNING
CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL THE CWFA SUN NITE THRU TUE...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THRU THU.

[BigB0882]

I'm starting to get jealous

[Stormcenter]

N.O. NWS seems to be playing it safe for the moment but keeping the door slightly open at the same time.
I still think it's too early to call IMO. It all depends (as always) on where,when and how strong the low is.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS PRIMARILY A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH JUST COOL BUT NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH NO RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE AREA
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD MOVE ASHORE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REACH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. 24/RR

.LONG TERM...
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHWEST GULF AS THE UPPER FEATURE
APPROACHES CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ECMWF MODEL WAS PREFERRED FOR TIMING
AND GENERAL TRENDS...BRINGING A STRONG AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
AREA ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE
ARE TREATING THIS SYSTEM AS A GALE CENTER WITH EXTRATROPICAL STORM
SURGE RAMIFICATIONS FOR EAST FACING SHORES GENERALLY FROM BAY ST
LOUIS TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. STRICTLY BASED ON PREFERRED
THICKNESS SCHEMES...WINTER TYPE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT SEEM
WARRANTED...HOWEVER MODEL SMOOTHING AND SHALLOWNESS OF COLD
AIR...AMONG OTHER FACTORS...MAY NOT CATCH THE FULL ESSENCE OF WHAT
CAN BE EXPECTED. SHOULD THE COLDER AIR BE MORE ENTRENCHED AND THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH THAN MODEL INDICATED...THEN A STRIP OF SLEET AND/OR SNOW MIX
MAY RESULT ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES. THERE IS A LOW NON-ZERO
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRENCE...BUT DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE FROM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HAVE
NOT QUITE GIVEN UP ENTIRELY ON THE POSSIBILITIES BUT HAVE ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO TO FOLLOW TRENDS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES UPON APPROACH.
AFTER THIS SUNDAY FEATURE...THE FORECAST REVERTS TO MAINLY A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH MUCH OF THE WEEK REMAINING BELOW TO
OCCASIONALLY MUCH BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN AIR DIVES VIRTUALLY UNABATED
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR
DOES APPEAR TO SHUNT EAST IN TIME...BUT THIS TOO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. 24/RR

&&

[BigB0882]

The NOAA site has a high next Thur of 34 in Baton Rouge! Brrr! Still a week away but 7 days out is not quite the fantasy land that it could be. Can we get a low to fly on by during that time, bring on the snow!

[Stormcenter]

That is actually a possibility.

The NOAA site has a high next Thur of 34 in Baton Rouge! Brrr! Still a week away but 7 days out is not quite the fantasy land that it could be. Can we get a low to fly on by during that time, bring on the snow!

[northjaxpro]

BigB0882, if the southern branch of the jet stream remains active, which has been the case lately, then I would say that there stands a rather decent probability that wintry precipitation may occur in your location within the next 7-10 days. It is looking more and more likely that some very cold air will be coming down into the CONUS during the next 7-10 days. The second in a series of southern stream shortwaves is coming through the Deep South this Sunday- Monday night timeframe.

It is very possible that we may see another shortwave coming into play across the Gulf region as we get into the later part of next week(1/14-1/15) , in which long range guidance is beginning to depict. So stay tuned and monitor the model trends for the next several days.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

BigB,
I have to give it to you, you have been very persistent on wishing for winter weather. Obviously you have been living down here long enough to get in on past gulf coast snowfalls by your earlier posts. Anyway seriously doubt we will get anything but a cold rain sunday night if that. These systems usually clear out pretty fast once they move east of us with the dry slot and cold dry air. Also noticed you posted earlier that the high for BTR next thursday was forecast to be 34 by the NWS. Are you sure about that becasue I was just looking at it and it shows highs in the mid to upper 40's with lows around 30 all next week? Don't get me wrong I would love to get some winter weather but it is not looking like it right now unless they are being really conservative with the temps.

[sherry]

I'm cannot wait to see how this plays out..

[BigB0882]

BigB,
I have to give it to you, you have been very persistent on wishing for winter weather. Obviously you have been living down here long enough to get in on past gulf coast snowfalls by your earlier posts. Anyway seriously doubt we will get anything but a cold rain sunday night if that. These systems usually clear out pretty fast once they move east of us with the dry slot and cold dry air. Also noticed you posted earlier that the high for BTR next thursday was forecast to be 34 by the NWS. Are you sure about that becasue I was just looking at it and it shows highs in the mid to upper 40's with lows around 30 all next week? Don't get me wrong I would love to get some winter weather but it is not looking like it right now unless they are being really conservative with the temps.

I was quoting the forecast from NOAA. Not that NOAA is a sure bet but I tend to favor their forecast between days 3-7 more. Half the fun of winter weather in the deep south is wishing for it! If we only had fun with it when it happened then we'd never have anything to talk about.

ETA: I see NOAA has now altered their forecasts. LOL Earlier today it had a high of 34 on Thursday of next week, now it shows 45. I guess models changed and so did their forecast.

[DEEDEE911]

what is the outlook for southwest mississippi near mccomb, brookhaven and natchez are we going to see snow or mainly rain and ice

[CYCLONE MIKE]

DeeDee, you guys might see some mix the way things are looking right now. Ya'll always seem to at least get on some of that while we are stuck with the cold rain. Who knows though, like they say a track 50-100 miles further south could possibly put you in target zone. It will be an unknown until the low actually develops in the gulf and where it goes from there. We wil just have to wait and see.

[Mr. Weather]

any snow for Houston in the next few weeks ?

[MississippiWx]

The NAM is showing 1000-850mb thicknesses at freezing or below all the way down into South Alabama and South Mississippi. Can any of you smarter guys tell me what that means, exactly?

Here is the link...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 84_m.shtml

[Dean4Storms]

The NAM is showing 1000-850mb thicknesses at freezing or below all the way down into South Alabama and South Mississippi. Can any of you smarter guys tell me what that means, exactly?

Here is the link...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 84_m.shtml

Sure is and it is also slowing this way down. Could see some ice/snow mixing in with the rain if this forecast bears out from the NAM across both.

[MississippiWx]

Good sign from the 00z GFS for us further South in MS and Alabama. The 00z run has moved the surface low about 50 miles farther south and thus makes temps colder. Let's hope the trend continues. Would really like to see the EURO say the same.

[bella_may]

Weather channel is showing the temps higher sunday morning than earlier forecasted

[BigB0882]

Ok, 50 miles this run...let's get another 50 next run We are going to get soaked in Baton Rouge. I wish that one day we get those kind of QPF numbers and have it be all snow. That would be a miracle. One day I'm moving to where it snows, I swear...lol

[MississippiWx]

Weather channel is showing the temps higher sunday morning than earlier forecasted

I wouldn't listen to TWC. They are wrong about 95% of the time, even when the forecast is only 24 hours out. Accuweather and TWC are about the same. They cater to the bigger cities and typically forget about the South. Listen to what your local NWS offices have to say first because they will give you a lot more accurate information over the coming days.

[BigB0882]

Plus, I doubt TWC has used any of the new runs so their current forecasts may not match up at all with the newest model runs.