Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

msstateguy83 · #2541 Postby **msstateguy83** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:00 pm

look at the 00z nam coming out =)

#2542 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:02 pm

we will hover right around the freezing mark for better half of the day, the rest will be below freezing. I dont get were they can call for melting on contact either, a fast snow burst is all it will take for it to start sticking and piling up

txtiff · #2543 Postby **txtiff** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:03 pm

msstateguy83 wrote:look at the 00z nam coming out =)

I can't look at it and even if I could I wouldn't know how to read it.LOL. Can you tell us???

#2544 Postby **srainhoutx** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:07 pm

I know everyone is focused on tomorrow, but you might want to watch the January 5th-7th time frame as well. :cheesy:

#2545 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:09 pm

srainhoutx wrote:I know everyone is focused on tomorrow, but you might want to watch the January 5th-7th time frame as well.

Feast or famine, this winter is definately feast! And wow the all important 0z nam has a bullseye for very hefty snow amounts right along I-20 through the metroplex. Maybe msstateguy will win the nobel prize for his predictions lol :lol:

DentonGal · #2546 Postby **DentonGal** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:09 pm

txtiff wrote:
msstateguy83 wrote:look at the 00z nam coming out =)

I can't look at it and even if I could I wouldn't know how to read it.LOL. Can you tell us???

ROTFL! Thank you for saying what I was thinking! :oops:

msstateguy83 · #2547 Postby **msstateguy83** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:10 pm

good 2-3" area across the entire metroplex region and appears maybe like a 4-5" in isolated spots..

iorange55 · #2548 Postby **iorange55** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:12 pm

NAM 00z is showing a heavier precip band for the DFW area.

I'd say 2-3 inches is a good bet.

#2549 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:16 pm

iorange55 wrote:NAM 00z is showing a heavier precip band for the DFW area.

I'd say 2-3 inches is a good bet.

let's see they said 1 to 2 inches for DFW X-mas eve and I got 3.5 at the house, so I will go with the 4 to 6 range on this one. AND no melting and poor driving condictions

#2550 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:18 pm

And as Srain said models have been showing lots of potential for snow all over the south going into next week. If this comes true, the Dallas area would have seen accumulating snow back to back weeks 3 in a row. I've never seen anything come close to that here since I've been interested in weather.

Tejas89 · #2551 Postby **Tejas89** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:40 pm

Another newbie here. Actually it's been so long since I posted I forgot my username.

The DFW locals, including FTW NWS, aren't nearly as bullish on this event as most here. Will we see a change in the early a.m. forecast? Most are going very conservative and taking the NWS lead on this (not as bad as X-mas eve storm).

I've lived in the 'plex all my life and don't recall a start to winter this chilly since maybe '89-'90 (-1 around NY eve as I recall). Any thoughts on that? We've had many tropical-feeling winters since. With a good southern plains snow pack, and stubborn upper pattern in place, my hunch is January will continue the cold trend.

msstateguy83 · #2552 Postby **msstateguy83** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:46 pm

this is my final forecast iam putting out for the night, will make changes early in the am if needed.
did tweek the numbers back just a little i dont think there will be anything over 6 inches at this point.
i did however keep it in the 4-6" range but the 5-6 inch amounts will likely be very isolated. metroplex region should
average around 4 inches. EDIT: i feel good saying at this point yes travel problems likely it will stick pretty quick
but i dont see this at this point now being 18 or so hours out from this being anything that will produce amounts over
6 inches. quite sure it will be within this range nothing over 5 or 6 inches at the max. this will be pushing it with
the advisory fws will atleast need to go with stronger wording later on b/c of likely impact on travel in the metroplex
by late tomorrow evening.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

#2553 Postby **gboudx** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:52 pm

C'mon, nudge that pink area in NE Dallas county just a tad to the east.

txtiff · #2554 Postby **txtiff** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 10:02 pm

gboudx wrote:C'mon, nudge that pink area in NE Dallas county just a tad to the east.

Well the 2-4 inches sounds mighty nice at this point. I know we always get the shaft!! I dont think we will this time though. But moving the pink more east just a smidgen would make me very very happy!! LOL!!

LaBreeze · #2555 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 10:10 pm

msstateguy83 wrote:this is my final forecast iam putting out for the night, will make changes early in the am if needed.
did tweek the numbers back just a little i dont think there will be anything over 6 inches at this point.
i did however keep it in the 4-6" range but the 5-6 inch amounts will likely be very isolated. metroplex region should
average around 4 inches. EDIT: i feel good saying at this point yes travel problems likely it will stick pretty quick
but i dont see this at this point now being 18 or so hours out from this being anything that will produce amounts over
6 inches. quite sure it will be within this range nothing over 5 or 6 inches at the max. this will be pushing it with
the advisory fws will atleast need to go with stronger wording later on b/c of likely impact on travel in the metroplex
by late tomorrow evening.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

How far south does the pink area go? Do you have a map that shows the southern part of this, even the light blue? Thanks in advance.

#2556 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 10:13 pm

LaBreeze wrote:
msstateguy83 wrote:this is my final forecast iam putting out for the night, will make changes early in the am if needed.
did tweek the numbers back just a little i dont think there will be anything over 6 inches at this point.
i did however keep it in the 4-6" range but the 5-6 inch amounts will likely be very isolated. metroplex region should
average around 4 inches. EDIT: i feel good saying at this point yes travel problems likely it will stick pretty quick
but i dont see this at this point now being 18 or so hours out from this being anything that will produce amounts over
6 inches. quite sure it will be within this range nothing over 5 or 6 inches at the max. this will be pushing it with
the advisory fws will atleast need to go with stronger wording later on b/c of likely impact on travel in the metroplex
by late tomorrow evening.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

How far south does the pink area go? Do you have a map that shows the southern part of this, even the light blue? Thanks in advance.

It seems like Waco is around the cutoff point for any possible accumulations as warmer air tries to surge north.

LaBreeze · #2557 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 10:15 pm

gotcha - thanks!!

msstateguy83 · #2558 Postby **msstateguy83** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 10:16 pm

sorry for the map issues, further s agreed on the eastern side down near waco, yeah warmer temps will be in that region there should be a sharp cut off between hillsboro-waco area atleast way it looks now.
edit: just add to that maybe at best 1" for waco likely in the 0.25 - 0.50 range

LaBreeze · #2559 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 10:19 pm

I'm headed in to NW Houston on Tuesday evening - just wondering. Looks like it should be alright for me, maybe just some cold rain on the drive in?

#2560 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Dec 28, 2009 10:23 pm

LaBreeze wrote:I headed in to NW Houston on Tuesday evening - just wondering. Looks like it should be alright for me, maybe just some cold rain on the drive in?

Nothing to indicate any road problems from ice or snow down there. Rain can be tricky though should still use caution.

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