Texas Winter 2010-2011

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Ntxw
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#2541 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:52 pm

Look at what the NAM is hinting for Sunday/Monday. Very low heights...certainly should be well cold enough.

Image
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Re:

#2542 Postby Brandon8181 » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:59 pm

Ntxw wrote:Look at what the NAM is hinting for Sunday/Monday. Very low heights...certainly should be well cold enough.

Image


GFS snowfall out put suggest 3-5 inches for Grayson Co. Sunday/Monday and lesser amounts further south....

interesting?
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Re: Re:

#2543 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 19, 2011 10:01 pm

Brandon8181 wrote:GFS snowfall out put suggest 3-5 inches for Grayson Co. Sunday/Monday and lesser amounts further south....

interesting?


I don't trust the GFS for something like that this far out. It's had a bad track record. Just 48 hours ago it had essentially nothing on the surface maps for Sun/Mon and has now switched. But it does appear an apparent more significant winter weather event is looming for parts of Texas.

Edit: RUC tonight has precip ending just a bit before the arrival of subfreezing air tomorrow. If this voids us from ice problems via rush hour in the evening, then I hope the RUC holds true.
Last edited by Ntxw on Wed Jan 19, 2011 10:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Re:

#2544 Postby Brandon8181 » Wed Jan 19, 2011 10:08 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brandon8181 wrote:GFS snowfall out put suggest 3-5 inches for Grayson Co. Sunday/Monday and lesser amounts further south....

interesting?


I don't trust the GFS for something like that this far out. It's had a bad track record. Just 48 hours ago it had essentially nothing on the surface maps for Sun/Mon and has now switched. But it does appear an apparent more significant winter weather event is looming for parts of Texas.


I'm really confused about Sunday night / Monday... I just feel weird about it, thats why I didn't include those timeframes in my little forecast...

Maybe someone here can give me more of their thoughts on Sunday night / monday..
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2545 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Jan 19, 2011 10:30 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
921 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF PRESSURE RISES IS NOW HEADING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
COLORADO AND TOWARD THE REGION...AND WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE
BACKING FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH. THIS WILL SEND MUCH COLDER AIR
SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. FRONT
SHOULD REACH THE METROPLEX AROUND 6AM...WACO AT 8 AM AND CLEAR THE
SE ZONES BY 11 AM. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
INDICATES AND THUS HAVE LOWERED LOWS TONIGHT IN THE NW A FEW
DEGREES...AND ALSO LOWERED THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE NW AND CENTRAL
ZONES A FEW DEGREES. NEW 0Z NAM HAS COME IN COLDER AND WITH A BIT
MORE PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS FORECAST ACTUALLY ALIGNS WITH OUR
CURRENT FORECAST SO NO CHANGES NEED TO BE MADE WITH RESPECT TO
LOCATION OR CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION.

THE RAIN WILL PRIMARILY BE A RESULT OF FRONTOGENETIC LIFTING ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. AGAIN IT WILL BE RACE BETWEEN
WHETHER SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARRIVE BEFORE THE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
FROM THIS SHALLOW/WEAK LIFTING MECHANISM SHUTS DOWN. THE BEST
LOCATION FOR ANY MEASURABLE ICING IS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE
A SMALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED WITH THE OVERNIGHT
PACKAGE. ANY CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE METROPLEX WILL BE
BETWEEN 9 AM AND 2 PM AND AMOUNTS/IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT/MINIMAL.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2546 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 19, 2011 10:42 pm

GFS + RUC = Precip outruns the cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2547 Postby SouthernMet » Wed Jan 19, 2011 10:58 pm

AGAIN IT WILL BE RACE BETWEEN
WHETHER SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARRIVE BEFORE THE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
FROM THIS SHALLOW/WEAK LIFTING MECHANISM SHUTS DOWN.


Its gonna be close. It looks like the colder airmass + light precip will move into the DFW area around the exact same time, but it's towards the end of the event, when the temps actually reach the freezing mark, which matters in terms of ice/winter precip. <----By this time the more steadier precip (if any) will be northeast of the areas sub-freezing. IMO for DFW its gonna come down to 32 or below by noon but most of the precip begining to shift its way eastward. So if there is anything left when we reach freezing it won't stick around to long, and should just be light freezing rain or drizzle. Nothing to signifigant in terms of accumulations if at all..

The precip is gonna move across north texas from a generally west-east based nature and the colder air is most likely to make the northern zones reach 32 first. So the favored areas (TX) are imo north, north east of DFW.

Now.. on to early next week?? 8-)
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#2548 Postby DonWrk » Wed Jan 19, 2011 11:11 pm

I know one thing. It's going to be cold tomorrow. Brrr!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2549 Postby downsouthman1 » Wed Jan 19, 2011 11:15 pm

Though the 00Z GFS is showing significantly colder air next week, I don't see a disturbance through 114 hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2550 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 19, 2011 11:24 pm

downsouthman1 wrote:Though the 00Z GFS is showing significantly colder air next week, I don't see a disturbance through 114 hours.


There are plenty of weak disturbances. Unfortunately the GFS doesn't give much moisture or consolidates them into a big storm yet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2551 Postby downsouthman1 » Thu Jan 20, 2011 12:01 am

Ntxw wrote:
downsouthman1 wrote:Though the 00Z GFS is showing significantly colder air next week, I don't see a disturbance through 114 hours.


There are plenty of weak disturbances. Unfortunately the GFS doesn't give much moisture or consolidates them into a big storm yet.


Has anyone seen any other Models? Even through hour 120, though the 00Z GFS shows a pretty good temperature profile, it doesn't show what I would like to see as far as a disturbance. I'm wondering if it's good on the temperature but struggling with moisture convergence.
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#2552 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 20, 2011 12:31 am

Canadian took away Portastorm's snow from 12z. Says shortwave comes through dry.
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Re:

#2553 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 20, 2011 12:57 am

Ntxw wrote:Canadian took away Portastorm's snow from 12z. Says shortwave comes through dry.


Well we go from a great trend started last night to one that's going in the opposite direction tonight. I hope we don't look back at the runs from last night at just a blimp in the models. But tonights GFS and Canadian runs aren't looking as promising for next week. Even the GFS ensembles are looking much warmer and dryer. The one thing I was afraid of with this pattern was it being too progressive (not allowing energy to dig towards the equator enough) and it looks like that might be whats happening. Hopefully this will go back the other direction but less optimistic compared to a couple of days ago. We need a stronger southeastern ridge !!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2554 Postby Turtle » Thu Jan 20, 2011 12:58 am

I-20 in East Texas.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. North wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

I know it means the rain will finish early, with temps dropping quickly. But man it's depressing. :cry:
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Re: Re:

#2555 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 20, 2011 1:01 am

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Canadian took away Portastorm's snow from 12z. Says shortwave comes through dry.


Well we go from a great trend started last night to one that's going in the opposite direction tonight. I hope we don't look back at the runs from last night at just a blimp in the models. But tonights GFS and Canadian runs aren't looking as promising for next week. Even the GFS ensembles are looking much warmer and dryer. The one thing I was afraid of with this pattern was it being too progressive (not allowing energy to dig towards the equator enough) and it looks like that might be whats happening. Hopefully this will go back the other direction but less optimistic compared to a couple of days ago. We need a stronger southeastern ridge !!!!


Well, the Canadian still has it, except moves it into Mexico (the Portastorm one). One thing I haven't liked is that most of this energy is coming from the NW. Usually that doesn't associate a lot of moisture, lots of weak shortwaves zipping by as you've mentioned. I want the Baja to get active and shift that high out west a bit further north. And enough with all this splitting of energy! Consolidate!!
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#2556 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Jan 20, 2011 1:06 am

I just read the past few pages of today's posts. A few points I wanted to respond to if I can remember them:

1. This is not a competition. :lol: But donating to Storm2K isn't a bad idea when you consider these servers never had a lot of wintertime usage until these past few years.

2. The cold front seems to be moving faster than expected. Ultimately I don't know if this will affect the forecast a whole lot since the upper levels are so dry but it is fascinating to see this scenario pan out as several people speculated it might, nearly a week ago.

3. I hope the travel impacts are minimal, luckily it will be so dry and windy following the front that any ice ought to sublimate and the roads will hopefully be fine. I don't start my delivery shift until 5:00 tomorrow, but I'm supposed to be getting out of class at 11:00, peak time for any possible icing. Maybe I'll go to the campus library and, er, study until the roads dry out. Whatever happens, good luck everybody and stay safe!

4. I'm having a difficult time pinning down next week's system. But I'll definitely be watching it with hopeful eyes. :) It seems to be a question of temperatures more than moisture, right? Or is it both? :oops:

5. Regarding the very unique and apparently unprecedented weather pattern this winter, and the extremely cold tropospheric temps all across the northern hemisphere.....could the twin volcanic eruptions of Eyeafljadgkjgfirkgjuwhatever and Merapi be the cause?
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Re:

#2557 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 20, 2011 1:13 am

somethingfunny wrote:I just read the past few pages of today's posts. A few points I wanted to respond to if I can remember them:
2. The cold front seems to be moving faster than expected. Ultimately I don't know if this will affect the forecast a whole lot since the upper levels are so dry but it is fascinating to see this scenario pan out as several people speculated it might, nearly a week ago.


I have been fairly adamant I admit about this system, simply because we (NTX) are not close enough to the shortwave's best lift for precip post frontal. What I see is the typical front causing precip ahead of it and once the cold air kicks in, things dry out as it kills moisture. The further north you are the closer you will be to the best dynamics (Oklahoma). RUC runs tonight supports that idea.

3. I hope the travel impacts are minimal, luckily it will be so dry and windy following the front that any ice ought to sublimate and the roads will hopefully be fine. I don't start my delivery shift until 5:00 tomorrow, but I'm supposed to be getting out of class at 11:00, peak time for any possible icing. Maybe I'll go to the campus library and, er, study until the roads dry out. Whatever happens, good luck everybody and stay safe!


Sounds like a good idea!

4. I'm having a difficult time pinning down next week's system. But I'll definitely be watching it with hopeful eyes. :) It seems to be a question of temperatures more than moisture, right? Or is it both? :oops:


Looks like more than one system hard to pin point which will be it if any. I still stand by my statement earlier today of a winter weather event, but tonight's trends have taken a hit.

5. Regarding the very unique and apparently unprecedented weather pattern this winter, and the extremely cold tropospheric temps all across the northern hemisphere.....could the twin volcanic eruptions of Eyeafljadgkjgfirkgjuwhatever and Merapi be the cause?


Probably has some effect. My guess is the solar minimum and cold PDO is playing a big factor (all may just be linked). It's like a snowball, once you get it started, just keeps rollin.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2558 Postby johnbasham » Thu Jan 20, 2011 4:58 am

I thought I'd share our North Texas client update for this morning with the group.
Image
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
STORM SPOTTER METOPS FT WORTH TX
345 AM CST THU JAN 20 2011

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY...
...NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL HAZARDS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...

A COLD FRONT WILL BLAST INTO N TX THIS MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
ALSO BLUSTERY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 15-25MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LOW 30'S BY MID-DAY. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET (ICE PELLETS) & FREEZING RAIN THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS N TX.

GROUND TEMPS REMAIN WARM & THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED SO WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ARE ALWAYS SUSCEPTIBLE. BRISK WINDS
& TEMPS FROM THE 20S-30S WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES BY AFTERNOON.

..BASHAM..
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2559 Postby johnbasham » Thu Jan 20, 2011 5:26 am

AS OF 1011Z SHEPPARD AIR FORCE BASE IN WICHITA FALLS IS REPORTING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND 28 DEGREES.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2560 Postby johnbasham » Thu Jan 20, 2011 5:53 am

AS OF 1033Z ABILENE REGIONAL AIRPORT IS REPORTING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND 30 DEGREES.
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