Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

I tend to agree, but temps are right around freezing into areas as far south as Bowie already. What about the heaviest of the rain? I expect it to shift with the front.

If you live up along the Red River then expect some freezing rain, but not in the DFW area or southeast of there into Lindale.

[DougNTexas]

Nothing wrong with taking a strong drink to hold off the chance of catching the flu. Even a good weather man has to watch his health. Now back to the weather...................

[weatherdude1108]

We may have marginal severe storms late tonight in this area (something for a Spring thread).
I'm just glad I don't have to shut off my water to the house when I'm gone next week! But I will go ahead and wrap/put faucet covers on my outdoor faucets as a precaution. Better safe than sorry!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
303 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS AS WE EXPECTED WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. FLOW
OVER TEXAS IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS BRINGING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WHICH IS LOADING THE LOW LEVELS WITH GULF
MOISTURE AND AREA DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. A
COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED INTO WEST TEXAS AND THEN CONTINUES IN A
COMPLEX WAY ACROSS NM AND AZ. MODELS MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL MEAN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY IN
NORTH TEXAS WILL STALL AND NOT MOVE INTO OUR CWA. THE PACIFIC PART
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO APPROACH 1000J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR 50-60KTS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
STRONG STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF I10 AND MOST LIKELY TIME WILL BE
MIDNIGHT TO 10 AM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER...DRIER AIR. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS
AND EXIT OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL
AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING MOIST GULF AIR
BACK TO OUR CWA. GFS DEVELOPS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND KEEPING PRECIPITATION TO OUR
EAST. HAVE GONE WITH SOMETHING OF A COMPROMISE...KEEPING SOME
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

A Freezing Rain Advisory has been extended into all of southern Oklahoma.

[TheProfessor]

Currently 37 degrees. Could it drop another 5 degrees?

[iorange55]

Currently 37 degrees. Could it drop another 5 degrees?

I certainly hope not.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

This is from the FW NWS:

.DISCUSSION...

21Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STRONG COLD FRONT IN
PLACE ALONG A LINE FROM PARIS TO DALLAS TO HAMILTON. THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WAS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH
A 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURE THAT WAS OBSERVED AT GREENVILLE...A 49
DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT MCKINNEY AND A 39 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT
DENTON. THIS FRONT WAS STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH AT THE
TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. A 20Z AIRPLANE SOUNDING FROM DALLAS LOVE
FIELD INDICATED THAT THE FRONT WAS SHALLOW IN NATURE...WITH THE
FRONTAL INVERSION ONLY EXTENDING UP ABOUT 1500 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL. THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA THIS EVENING...IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS
INITIATED BY THE APPROACH OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS OBSERVED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
20Z BASED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. OUT AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
NICE CONTINUOUS BAND OF SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SCOUR OUT ALL OF THE LOW TO MID-
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SUBTROPICAL PLUME...BUT
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTURE DEPTH
OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MOST TROUBLESOME FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THAT ALL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS DOING A
REMARKABLY POOR JOB RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WHILE ALL GUIDANCE IS DOING
A POOR JOB RESOLVING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT...THE RAP IN PARTICULAR IS DIFFICULT TO PROCESS BECAUSE IT
CONTINUES TO INITIALIZE THE COLD AIR...BUT PERSISTENTLY BRINGS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP 5-7 DEGREES AT FORECAST HOUR 1 DESPITE
PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD BE MORE
OR LESS A NUISANCE IF THE TEMPERATURES HAD NO POTENTIAL TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THIS FORECAST. FOR INSTANCE...AT
BOWIE...THE 21Z OBSERVATION HAD A TEMPERATURE OF 32 DEG F. THE RAP
INITIALIZES THIS AT 34 DEGREES...WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR OFF...BUT
THEN GOES AHEAD TO FORECAST A TEMPERATURE OF 40 DEGREES BY 22Z.
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION RIGHT
NOW...AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THIS ERROR IN RESOLVING NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS QUITE
PROBLEMATIC. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME...WITH NO GUIDANCE AVAILABLE
ACTUALLY RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD AIR...THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS COMPLETED USING
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...RECENT FORECAST EVENTS AND INTUITION.

AT THIS TIME EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
GAINESVILLE TO GRAHAM LINE ARE MOST LIKELY TO FALL TO 32 DEGREES
THIS EVENING...LIKELY HOLDING STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT...EVEN IF WE SEE RAIN AT 31 TO 32 DEGREES FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL NOT SEE ANY
ICE ACCUMULATION...EXCEPT PERHAPS ON TREE TOPS OR THE TOPS OF
EXPOSED METAL SURFACES. THE REASONS FOR THIS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

1. BEFORE THE FRONT...WE HAVE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ICE ACCUMULATION.

2. THE DEPTH OF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER IS ALMOST 8 TIMES AS DEEP
AS THE DEPTH OF THE COLD/SUB-FREEZING LAYER. RAIN FALLING IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE A TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN IT
REACHES THE SURFACE. THAT IS THE TEMPERATURE OF THE FALLING RAIN
DROPS ARE LIKELY TO BE ABOVE FREEZING...THIS IS ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE
TO ICE ACCUMULATION.

3. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY ABOVE THE COLD FRONTAL INVERSION. THE WARM LAYER IS
VERY LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ITS DEPTH AND STRENGTH...WHILE RELATIVELY
WARM RAIN DROPS MAY ACTUALLY SHRINK THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW COLD
AIR OVERNIGHT.

AS A RESULT...WILL NOT BE HIGHLIGHTING FREEZING RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...DESPITE THE SURFACE OBSERVATION AT BOWIE
AT 32 DEGREES SEEMINGLY SHOWING AN ICE STORM ON OUR DOORSTEP. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SUPPORT ICE
ACCUMULATION FARTHER NORTH...WELL INTO OKLAHOMA BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS AND DFW AREA AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS.

[Red Raider fan]

Its 74 here and can't believe we have our a/c on. Sounds like up north could be some problems, hope nothing like what happened earlier in the month. And tomorrow is WINTER. Doesn't feel anything like Christmas right now.

[Lagreeneyes03]

A friend of mine just posted on Facebook a screenshot of his weather radar which shows snow west of Fort Worth.

[Red Raider fan]

Have to work tonite, does anybody know if that front will come on through here tonite? Need to know whether I should take a jacket.

[Lagreeneyes03]

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[Red Raider fan]

Wow that does show some form of wintry precip west of Dallas. Could be verga though. Or a pocket of freezing temps.

[Red Raider fan]

Accuweather doesn't show any real cold weather here the week of New Years, looks like just seasonal temps.

[Tireman4]

Accuweather doesn't show any real cold weather here the week of New Years, looks like just seasonal temps.

Not to knock Accuweather ( I am sure the fine folks there do a great job), but from what I understand, those forecasts are completely computer generated. There is no human involvement whatsoever. They will and tend to fluctuate wildly.

[Jarodm12]

im getting kind of excited nws just said intuition clairvoyance is there only reliable forecast method tonight kind of makes you wonder.

[wxman57]

A friend of mine just posted on Facebook a screenshot of his weather radar which shows snow west of Fort Worth.

That radar needs recallibration as there is no snow west of Ft. Worth all the way to the southern Panhandle. There are many, many surface observations west of Ft. Worth and all have rain with temps in the mid 30s. And the temperature rises significantly above the surface west of Ft. Worth. At Abilene, the surface temp is around 36 but it rises to 52F about 5000 feet above the surface. No snow.

[Jarodm12]

wxman57 would you be surprised, or to what degree of surprised would you be if dfw saw freezing rain? heart attack fall over surprised? or within the realm of possibility surprised?

[KatDaddy]

So much for the 80F weather in League City. Temp dropped 20F just N of Corsicana and now its setting at 38F in Roanoke. Its back to Winter for NTX.

[KatDaddy]

Roanoke is very near the snow returns and I can report nothing is occurring.

[TheProfessor]

It is now 35 degrees here. we are getting really close. Could rain drop the temperature even more?