Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Cerlin]

Well, still, there is absolutely NOTHING showing up on the GFS.

The GFS is weird—I don’t really trust the GFS much, especially for individual events.

[harp]

Well, still, there is absolutely NOTHING showing up on the GFS.

The GFS is weird—I don’t really trust the GFS much, especially for individual events.

I understand. But, there isn't even a HINT of anything. If anything, it's trending warmer.

[Cerlin]

Well, still, there is absolutely NOTHING showing up on the GFS.

The GFS is weird—I don’t really trust the GFS much, especially for individual events.

I understand. But, there isn't even a HINT of anything. If anything, it's trending warmer.

That’s pretty typical from the GFS. The FV3 has some nice promising looking cold shots and the CMC has multiple days with freezing weather for DFW. I don’t know anything about technical weather terms but things are looking promising.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

True, but I love the cold as much as the snow. Without the week long cold spells here and there throughout the season it just doesn’t feel like winter. I also feel with the way our weather and temps have been over the past numerous winters, that outside of the panhandle and the further from the western and central part of the river, getting snow seems harder and harder. I’ve been rooting for y’all the last two chances there have been but let’s also see what we can do to get some true cold into Texas.

Houston had 3 separate snow events last year. Some of y’all get so frustrated that statements come out that simply aren’t based in fact.

This decade has been so much better than the 90s and before that the 50s and 30s.

The winters of 2008-2014/15 were great. DFW is going through a mini drought now. It happens.

It got down to 3 degrees in the Davy Crockett Nationl forest last year outside of Crockett and Alto. It can still get as cold as it always has and some winters it can be 80... that’s nothing new either. It’s happened at least once a decade since we started recording temps.

This “new normal” is something constructed in your heads. I’m not singling you out YC, just something I wanted to rant on.

I’m not really complaining, more making an observation regarding the last few winters. Overall this winter has been pretty decent so far. We’ve had a dusting and 2.5-3” of snow so far and we aren’t even to our snowiest period. My only wish is for some actual cold, cold cold. Not this mid 20s for lows bs, single digit lows that we’ve had for the last 3 winters. Like I said, I like extremes.

I’m with you my friend. With that said, we aren’t in a background state to get extreme cold. We very rarely see that in El Niño years.

[HockeyTx82]

It's like the sign at the bar, "free beer tomorrow" problem is tomorrow never comes............

New name for website, Storm 2-3 Weeks Away

[harp]

I'm in Louisiana, but many times, what Texas gets heads our way the next day.

[Cpv17]

I'm in Louisiana, but many times, what Texas gets heads our way the next day.

Hey Harp, good to see you here! We just need the Pacific to cooperate with us. The +EPO is killing us this winter. The question is, when will it flip to negative?

[harp]

I'm in Louisiana, but many times, what Texas gets heads our way the next day.

Hey Harp, good to see you here! We just need the Pacific to cooperate with us. The +EPO is killing us this winter. The question is, when will it flip to negative?

I'll try not to be as annoying on here as that one guy said I was on the Houston forum! Never been accused of that before, ever.

[wxman57]

I told you guys, if I can't build my wall to keep the cold air in Canada then I'm shutting winter down.

On a more serious note, the pattern really is one that could bring snow to much of Texas - IF some colder air can slip out of Canada. My cold-mongering coworker is still seeing a pattern change coming after mid-month. I don't see anything in the 500mb pattern in the GFS through Jan 21st that suggests a pattern change. If anything, it looks like a warm-up after mid-month. Low to mid 70s here in Houston today. Nice day (though a bit cool) for a bike ride.

[MississippiWx]

I told you guys, if I can't build my wall to keep the cold air in Canada then I'm shutting winter down.

On a more serious note, the pattern really is one that could bring snow to much of Texas - IF some colder air can slip out of Canada. My cold-mongering coworker is still seeing a pattern change coming after mid-month. I don't see anything in the 500mb pattern in the GFS through Jan 21st that suggests a pattern change. If anything, it looks like a warm-up after mid-month. Low to mid 70s here in Houston today. Nice day (though a bit cool) for a bike ride.

Unfortunately, I believe your cold mongering coworker is going to be incorrect. Seems like El Niño doesn’t want to allow Arctic plunges to occur, despite some favorable analogs. The pattern is a wet one overall, so maybe we can get lucky one time across the South with perfectly-timed cold air.

[Cpv17]

I'm in Louisiana, but many times, what Texas gets heads our way the next day.

Hey Harp, good to see you here! We just need the Pacific to cooperate with us. The +EPO is killing us this winter. The question is, when will it flip to negative?

I'll try not to be as annoying on here as that one guy said I was on the Houston forum! Never been accused of that before, ever.

Yeah, I’m not really sure what that was about. I was about to comment on that, but then thought better of it lol

[Lagreeneyes03]

True, but I love the cold as much as the snow. Without the week long cold spells here and there throughout the season it just doesn’t feel like winter. I also feel with the way our weather and temps have been over the past numerous winters, that outside of the panhandle and the further from the western and central part of the river, getting snow seems harder and harder. I’ve been rooting for y’all the last two chances there have been but let’s also see what we can do to get some true cold into Texas.

Houston had 3 separate snow events last year. Some of y’all get so frustrated that statements come out that simply aren’t based in fact.

This decade has been so much better than the 90s and before that the 50s and 30s.

The winters of 2008-2014/15 were great. DFW is going through a mini drought now. It happens.

It got down to 3 degrees in the Davy Crockett Nationl forest last year outside of Crockett and Alto. It can still get as cold as it always has and some winters it can be 80... that’s nothing new either. It’s happened at least once a decade since we started recording temps.

This “new normal” is something constructed in your heads. I’m not singling you out YC, just something I wanted to rant on.

I’m not really complaining, more making an observation regarding the last few winters. Overall this winter has been pretty decent so far. We’ve had a dusting and 2.5-3” of snow so far and we aren’t even to our snowiest period. My only wish is for some actual cold, cold cold. Not this mid 20s for lows bs, single digit lows that we’ve had for the last 3 winters. Like I said, I like extremes.

But those extreme temps don't bring snow, they tend to be "too cold to snow" and that's just a waste. Mid 20's would be perfect.

[gpsnowman]

A couple of warm days ahead with highs near 70 then back to the 50's for highs for several days. Cloud cover could keep the lows stuck in the 40's so maybe we get some rain this next week.
Wife and I are talking about heading to Santa Fe for spring break. Might be my only chance to see some snow this year. Still have plenty of time for something to show up here though.

[HockeyTx82]

A couple of warm days ahead with highs near 70 then back to the 50's for highs for several days. Cloud cover could keep the lows stuck in the 40's so maybe we get some rain this next week.
Wife and I are talking about heading to Santa Fe for spring break. Might be my only chance to see some snow this year. Still have plenty of time for something to show up here though.

Right there with you. The other night when the radar showed snow right on me yet nothing was falling was the worst.

[bubba hotep]

Models are actually building some decently cold air in WCAN over the next few days but we only get a glancing blow as it looks like the majority of the deep cold will stay well NE of Texas. Then it is followed up by a pretty wet system for next weekend. As stated above, it looks pretty raw for DFW with a wet weekend with temps in the 40s.

If you want to chase miracles, the Euro does show snow in Eastern OK with accumulation as far south as the Red River. Maybe a few flakes can sneak in the NE burbs? One thing to watch, can we get some of that colder air from the cold front to sneak around the Ozarks and into N. Texas?

[GalvestonWXGeek]

I'm up in Bethel Alaska for business purposes. Presently 3 degrees and heavy snowfall. Talk about a shock to your system! I've attempted to attach a couple of photos from my walk to the store yesterday.

Sent from my SM-J337U using Tapatalk

[1900hurricane]

This is what winter in Texas is all about!

 https://twitter.com/JohnRichTX/status/1081931912913059840

[bubba hotep]

This is what winter in Texas is all about!

https://twitter.com/JohnRichTX/status/1081931912913059840

Just watching that makes my eyes water!

[harp]

The 12Z GFS now starts dumping cold air out of Canada southward towards the end of the run. The January 21st/22nd time frame.

[Cpv17]

The 12Z GFS now starts dumping cold air out of Canada southward towards the end of the run. The January 21st/22nd time frame.

Yep.