Texas Winter 2022-2023

[EnnisTx]

Most of us is about to experience one of the greatest cold front passages in modern times and here you are dreaming of 70s and 80s .

https://i.imgur.com/6qzJp0B.gif

Seems overly dramatic. Just a strong Canadian front that we seem to get every 5 years or so (hitting low 20s in Houston and mid-teens in DFW). Check temps in the Northern Plains. Only -15F to -30F. Not particularly cold for winter up there. Not much of a snow pack. This is nowhere close to 2021 (or 1983, 1989). Nowhere close.

I thought he was referring more to the abrupt temp drop and attendant winds, more so than the magnitude of cold air. Agreed these temps aren’t unprecedented, but it doesn’t seem all that common to me to see a threat for spotty power outages with the dry passage of a cold front

That's what I believe he was doing as well. 57 just woke up on the wrong side of 70's and 80's this morning and he will do that for quite a few more day's as well....

[cstrunk]

30F in Longview this morning.

Travel for Xmas to Iowa still looks sketchy. Not as bad as the forecast showed a few days ago, but will have to wait to depart until Saturday.

[Cpv17]

So we get a front like this every 5 years? Yeah, okay!

[Ralph's Weather]

The temperatures may not be as extreme as 2/21 but single digits is exceedingly rare. The incredible part of it though is single digits with winds over 20mph. Friday morning will feature some of the lowest wind chills ever seen in this region.

[wxman57]

Most of us is about to experience one of the greatest cold front passages in modern times and here you are dreaming of 70s and 80s .


https://i.imgur.com/6qzJp0B.gif

Seems overly dramatic. Just a strong Canadian front that we seem to get every 5 years or so (hitting low 20s in Houston and mid-teens in DFW). Check temps in the Northern Plains. Only -15F to -30F. Not particularly cold for winter up there. Not much of a snow pack. This is nowhere close to 2021 (or 1983, 1989). Nowhere close.

ONLY -15F to -30F? That is funny. But of course, it is up in the most northern reaches of the country. But still…

That's southern Canada near the U.S. border. Happens every winter up there. Only -5 to -10 in southern MT and SD. Still no well-defined frontal boundary.

[wxman57]

So we get a front like this every 5 years? Yeah, okay!

Temps, not wind. I've been forecasting the weather here in Houston since 1980. This kind of cold isn't uncommon.

[Ntxw]

1060+ HPs don't come every five years. Return rate is more like 30 years plus to drive the cold south.

[Cpv17]

So we get a front like this every 5 years? Yeah, okay!

Temps, not wind. I've been forecasting the weather here in Houston since 1980. This kind of cold isn't uncommon.

Wrong! Go back and look how many times since 89 Houston has hit the teens. Or even low 20’s for that matter. It’s rare.

[Cpv17]

1060+ HPs don't come every five years. Return rate is more like 30 years plus to drive the cold south.

With an HP that strong, what’s keeping it from being even colder?

[Ntxw]

1060+ HPs don't come every five years. Return rate is more like 30 years plus to drive the cold south.

With an HP that strong, what’s keeping it from being even colder?

There is a lack of snow cover from KS down. Moderation and then deep cyclogenesis from the Midwest storm shifting the upper winds from N/S to W/E is not ideal. An open trough would let the cold spill further.

[Cpv17]

1060+ HPs don't come every five years. Return rate is more like 30 years plus to drive the cold south.

With an HP that strong, what’s keeping it from being even colder?

There is a lack of snow cover from KS down. Moderation and then deep cyclogenesis from the Midwest storm shifting the upper winds from N/S to W/E is not ideal. An open trough would let the cold spill further.

Gotcha! That makes sense

[TheProfessor]

This is our 4th wind chill warning since 2010 so definitely not an every year cold front. On top of that we don't usually forecast -35 wind chills either. Surface Temps don't mean much for humans, helps with keeping pipes from bursting, but if people aren't dressing warm enough they'll be at risk.

[Ntxw]

So we get a front like this every 5 years? Yeah, okay!

Temps, not wind. I've been forecasting the weather here in Houston since 1980. This kind of cold isn't uncommon.

Wrong! Go back and look how many times since 89 Houston has hit the teens. Or even low 20’s for that matter. It’s rare.

Since 2000 there is only 2 dates with official subfreezing highs Feb 4th 2011 and Feb 15th 2021 in Houston proper. Something to see if it can match.

[Cpv17]

This is our 4th wind chill warning since 2010 so definitely not an every year cold front. On top of that we don't usually forecast -35 wind chills either. Surface Temps don't mean much for humans, helps with keeping pipes from bursting, but if people aren't dressing warm enough they'll be at risk.

Since as far as I can remember, this is only the second time they’ve issued watches for wind chill here in Southeast TX.

[Cpv17]

Temps, not wind. I've been forecasting the weather here in Houston since 1980. This kind of cold isn't uncommon.

Wrong! Go back and look how many times since 89 Houston has hit the teens. Or even low 20’s for that matter. It’s rare.

Since 2000 there is only 2 dates with official subfreezing highs Feb 4th 2011 and Feb 15th 2021 in Houston proper. Something to see if it can match.

I remember both of them. The one on Feb 4th 2011 I remember it very well. I was working at Buc-ees at the time and had outside grounds duty. Was brutal lol

[Ntxw]

The models (ignoring the GFS inconsistency for the period) are pushing in another trough early next week. Post Christmas warm up will be delayed with it to the second half of the week.

[orangeblood]

I haven't given up on 70s and 80s for this weekend. I never predicted that, I only wished it would happen. My wall may yet hold!

Most of us is about to experience one of the greatest cold front passages in modern times and here you are dreaming of 70s and 80s .

https://i.imgur.com/6qzJp0B.gif

Seems overly dramatic. Just a strong Canadian front that we seem to get every 5 years or so (hitting low 20s in Houston and mid-teens in DFW). Check temps in the Northern Plains. Only -15F to -30F. Not particularly cold for winter up there. Not much of a snow pack. This is nowhere close to 2021 (or 1983, 1989). Nowhere close.

Lololol! DFW Single digits with -5 to -10 F windchills in an area with more Urbanization than anytime in History...yep, just your average every 5 year front!!

[Iceresistance]

I'm under a Freezing Fog Advisory. It's currently 28°F.

[orangeblood]

Even on the warm biased GFS, it has -47F in Yellowstone tomorrow morning...60F Deg below normal. On top of that, it's forecasting the All Time lower 48 High Pressure record of 1067 hPa as well

Respectfully King Warm Mongerer, you're wrong about this one! This fits in the historic category...unless the Russians are correct and the next Ice Age is upon us, then this will become a new normal every 5 year front

[Ntxw]

Whatever the case, we should probably enjoy what's about to come through as much as possible. If we get a moderate El Nino next year, probability of a big cold snap like this (and 2021) probably won't happen again for awhile. +ENSO favored (not always but usually) persistent chill but not severe cold with monster HPs.