Texas Winter 2020-2021

[orangeblood]

Yikes, 1060 Plus HP ALERT on latest GFS!!!

[South Texas Storms]

Snow stretching from Mexico to NC on the 12z GFS in 10 days. Wow that image needs to go in the winter model hall of fame!

[gpsnowman]

Yikes, 1060 Plus HP ALERT on latest GFS!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020312/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_37.png

Damn that is one good-looking HP.

[Haris]

Hour 240 again . Wish it was like hour 144 at least

[Iceresistance]

Snow stretching from Mexico to NC on the 12z GFS in 10 days. Wow that image needs to go in the winter model hall of fame!

Similar to the size of the Storm of the Century in 1993 with the amount of snow

[Iceresistance]

Yikes, 1060 Plus HP ALERT on latest GFS!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020312/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_37.png

That thing is STRONG! More snow for the Southern Plains for sure!

[PTrackerLA]

What the...I've never seen a GFS run this cold down to the coast.

[orangeblood]

Snow stretching from Mexico to NC on the 12z GFS in 10 days. Wow that image needs to go in the winter model hall of fame!

Yep, not going to find many better runs from the GFS than that one (might be the best one I've personally seen inside 240 hrs)....below freezing temps for 150 plus hrs with Moderate Snow/temps in high teens for DFW next Saturday!

[InfernoFlameCat]

Its beautiful. Too bad it won't likely happen. I would love to eat these words however.

[Ntxw]

I mean we are looking potentially record breaking -AO. Something close to -6 SD which is absurd. As mentioned before, there is no real consistency of late from the guidance and swings of extremes to holding it up has been happening.

But one thing is consistent, every now and then we get a crazy run from a model (not just 1) but each one of them have shown something wild at one point. I still believe something in the lines of 1985 Jan-Feb is possible. Where you have a fantastic AO and somewhat ok Pacific.

[Iceresistance]

I mean we are looking potentially record breaking -AO. Something close to -6 SD which is absurd. As mentioned before, there is no real consistency of late from the guidance and swings of extremes to holding it up has been happening.

But one thing is consistent, every now and then we get a crazy run from a model (not just 1) but each one of them have shown something wild at one point.

The conditions for something like that have to be insane for this to happen

[orangeblood]

I mean we are looking potentially record breaking -AO. Something close to -6 SD which is absurd. As mentioned before, there is no real consistency of late from the guidance and swings of extremes to holding it up has been happening.

But one thing is consistent, every now and then we get a crazy run from a model (not just 1) but each one of them have shown something wild at one point.

Yep, and latest CMC falls right in line with the GFS....climatologically speaking, we are due for an extreme outbreak like this!!

[InfernoFlameCat]

I mean we are looking potentially record breaking -AO. Something close to -6 SD which is absurd. As mentioned before, there is no real consistency of late from the guidance and swings of extremes to holding it up has been happening.

But one thing is consistent, every now and then we get a crazy run from a model (not just 1) but each one of them have shown something wild at one point.

The conditions for something like that have to be insane for this to happen

Yeah, I think a 1061 high north of Montana might do it.

[Quixotic]

1061 mb would be close to the contiguous US record of 1064 during the December 83 outbreak.

[Ntxw]

I mean we are looking potentially record breaking -AO. Something close to -6 SD which is absurd. As mentioned before, there is no real consistency of late from the guidance and swings of extremes to holding it up has been happening.

But one thing is consistent, every now and then we get a crazy run from a model (not just 1) but each one of them have shown something wild at one point.

The conditions for something like that have to be insane for this to happen

30-40 day composite post SSW (back in early Jan) favors such an outcome and the models looks just about like it. You need an extreme index, like the AO, and we need the coldest air in the world to be on our side (it is). Unlike December and January I think high 1050s is pretty close to record territory for the month.

[Ntxw]

1061 mb would be close to the contiguous US record of 1064 during the December 83 outbreak.

I don't think Feb has a 1060+. If there was you would need to go back to Feb 1899.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS

Storm #1, I get a glancing blow & the moisture is so close, yet so far away. (But! It's on a South trend! )



Gets nasty cold after that for a looooooong while!



Storm #2 (Cold from Storm #1 is still here, with a Second Push!)

Some snow is possible on I-40 from Amarillo to Sallisaw, then Winter mix along I-10 in Louisiana & Texas, & then, it's showtime for ALL of Texas!

It looks UNREAL!



INASNE amount of snow for Most of Texas!

[InfernoFlameCat]

This model appears to follow what happened in 1899; a massive high followed by a record snowstorm.

[bubba hotep]

Snow stretching from Mexico to NC on the 12z GFS in 10 days. Wow that image needs to go in the winter model hall of fame!

There is actually pretty good ensemble support for something in that range. Actually, more so than many of the other systems we have tracked this winter.

Also, DFW is in the 20s with snow :lockitup:

[Haris]

Every Gefs member shows ice for TX at some point by hour 192