Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

Considering the short range models that are almost in range, are much colder than the operational models, I wouldnt put much weight on the GFS in terms of temperatures , a blend of the ICON/ CMC at least temperature wise is the more probable outcome at this time

[Ntxw]

CMC going ice storm mania

Based on 0z runs we don't yet have the timing, and we may not know until we know when it starts moving or lackthereof after digging unfortunately.

[HockeyTx82]

CMC going ice storm mania

Based on 0z runs we don't yet have the timing, and we may not know until we know when it starts moving or lackthereof after digging unfortunately.

Okay so wait I thought the latest runs are pulling everything south of DFW? What's going on? I think multiple people are talking about multiple parts of a very large state.

[Ntxw]

CMC going ice storm mania

Based on 0z runs we don't yet have the timing, and we may not know until we know when it starts moving or lackthereof after digging unfortunately.

Okay so wait I thought the latest runs are pulling everything south of DFW? What's going on? I think multiple people are talking about multiple parts of a very large state.

We have 3 different OP guidance so far pulling different solutions for ejection of the ULL. So we know it will dig, after that point the timing, as portrayed is not set in stone.

[txtwister78]

CMC going ice storm mania

Based on 0z runs we don't yet have the timing, and we may not know until we know when it starts moving or lackthereof after digging unfortunately.

Yeah my guess is if the CMC is right on this run, all that freezing rain is probably going to end up being a cold rain due to its colder surface temp bias. Upper levels warmer on this run but yeah this is going to be more watching and waiting. But we're going to do that anyway. Lol

[wxman22]

Yikes if this verified. I wonder what the Euro will show tonight...

[snownado]

CMC going ice storm mania

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736035200/1736532000-5nBEwiaTxdg.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/frzr_total/1736035200/1736542800-xWuiZimJgoU.png

Disgusting...

[txtwister78]

Keep in mind folks and I mentioned this above, the CMC ice output is highly uncertain due to temps being borderline below freezing during much of the freezing rain period it displays and so my point is this could all end up being a cold rain if the surface temps it currently has modeled are just a few degrees warmer. Keep in mind CMC is typically one of our coldest models.

Basically, it's saying no snow because the layers/temp profiles above are too warm and thus freezing rain is the dominant precip type on this run due to surface temps being slightly below freezing. My guess is this is not likely to occur.

[Quixotic]

This is the most entertaining part of tracking winter storms: depression to mania and back again. The ensembles still look favorable for a large part of the state. And yes, someone will get more snow than I.

[snownado]

Keep in mind folks and I mentioned this above, the CMC ice output is highly uncertain due to temps being borderline below freezing during much of the freezing rain period it displays and so my point is this could all end up being a cold rain if the surface temps it currently has modeled are just a few degrees warmer. Keep in mind CMC is typically one of our coldest models.

Basically, it's saying no snow because the layers/temp profiles above are too warm and thus freezing rain is the dominant precip type on this run due to surface temps being slightly below freezing. My guess is this is not likely to occur.

If I absolutely had to pick a poison, I would definitely take a cold rain over ice.

That said, it's still a disgusting pill to swallow, lol...

[Stratton23]

Hopefully the ICON is the winner lol, but I do see some pretty big signs that the pattern is going to reload beyond the 17th, the cold may be more centered over the central US by then

[wxman22]

0Z GEFS

[wxman22]

Well the UKMET finally caved LOL

[txtwister78]

Well the UKMET finally caved LOL

https://i.ibb.co/MnLQ2H9/prateptype-ukmo-imp-us-sc.png

I wouldn't count on that one just yet. Hell, next run it will have temps in the 60's & 70's with thunderstorms. Kidding of course but that one sure does deliver wild swings. Surprised it's still in use to be honest.

[Throckmorton]

Well the UKMET finally caved LOL

https://i.ibb.co/MnLQ2H9/prateptype-ukmo-imp-us-sc.png

What a worthless model. I often read the prognostic discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center. Not much respect for this model coming from them. It's almost like some higher up is forcing them to consider it every cycle.

[txtwister78]

Central Texas continues to be favored region on CMC Ens. A good portion of this is Wednesday evening into Thursday evening.

[Stratton23]

Ensembles keep the arctic chill in place even beyond day 10, and then the pattern looks to potentially reload big time after the 17th, im really hoping we have more opportunities down the road

[orangeblood]

King Euro


Bi Polar GFS


Every single year!!! Broken record with this model

[orangeblood]

Don’t think we can ignore the consistency, it’s the King for a reason. With the slight warm bias to this model, Probably wise to shift these bands southeast though

[txtwister78]

Well folks another night of not real sure where this all goes. Still more questions than answers. Euro looks a bit warmer and even the snow totals around DFW look questionable now with Euro on this run bringing more freezing rain/sleet mix up there on this latest run as opposed to all snow which means warmer temp profiles.

See ya back here tomorrow.