Texas Winter 2025-2026

[DukeMu]

After Houston, Austin is the most important city in Texas.

So I see we're just talking to be talking now...

He's not wrong tho lol

but all kidding aside, I would rather keep it all liquid here in Austin. I still have PTSD from 2021 and 2023 and as I said back then, I've had more than enough frozen precipitation to last me the rest of my life. Bring on the rain. Leave the freezing temps behind.

As long as no one drives. Black ice guaranteed overnight.

[hurricane2025]

Euro trend is north, it’s the king, also cmc doesn’t have to much moisture

[DukeMu]

I hope for a deeper cold layer. Or enough heavy sleet to cool things down. We need a bit of a southern trend here in DFW to help with that. But my word, the moisture is insane. This is a MAJOR storm.

I just don't want what happened a few years ago where I was hoping for a change from sleet to snow that only came at the very end.

There will be Moisture. Give me the entire cold column.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Euro temps are going to be incorrect at the surface. Thats a lot of moisture though.

Whats interesting to me is the reason there is alot of moisture with this type of setup is due to the size of the HP coming down. (Air rising over the large dome of HP.) You can see the omega levels are fairly high where the precip is taking place. It says lots of precip but doesnt understand what the temps are like below such a large HP.

[Iceresistance]

Worse than January 1988??

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/2013323804030968259

[TomballEd]

So I see we're just talking to be talking now...

He's not wrong tho lol

but all kidding aside, I would rather keep it all liquid here in Austin. I still have PTSD from 2021 and 2023 and as I said back then, I've had more than enough frozen precipitation to last me the rest of my life. Bring on the rain. Leave the freezing temps behind.

As long as no one drives. Black ice guaranteed overnight.

Some people have to drive to work and even parts of Austin proper have some decent hills. I remember mapping a road cut on 360 and while its the Austin Chalk around campus it is older Edwards Limestone there. Early introduction to climate change mapping, deep water and shallow water (to very shallow briny water) fossils repeat in the Edwards.

[rwfromkansas]

If you blend the GFS and Euro DFW could still see significant snow with more sleet. The Euro hopefully will be too warm.

[Texas Snowman]

As a survivor of the “Great Christmas Eve Snowstorm Debate” here in 2009, it might be time for a friendly S2K Moderator reminder here.

Since big ticket events (like this one appears to be on its way to becoming) are a part of why many of us love the Texas Winter Weather thread here on Storm2K, sometimes things can get a little less friendly around here.

While honest discussion is welcome, it might pay to reread the Storm2K rules again, particularly the portions about trolling, attacking others, etc.

Basically, follow the Golden Rule and this idea: “Show some RESPECT and think before you post…”

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=37&t=87189

[TomballEd]

Euro temps are going to be incorrect at the surface. Thats a lot of moisture though.

Whats interesting to me is the reason there is alot of moisture with this type of setup is due to the size of the HP coming down. (Air rising over the large dome of HP.) You can see the omega levels are fairly high where the precip is taking place. It says lots of precip but doesnt understand what the temps are like below such a large HP.

Euro has more vertical layers than the GFS, it should handle shallow dense airmasses better. WxMan57's post does show what I'd expect isn't what actually exists although we haven't had a super cold airmass yet. Morning lows just below freezing isn't what I call super cold.

[DallasAg]

Worse than January 1988??

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/2013323804030968259

That Jan 1988 event was a pretty decent sleet storm for DFW iirc. Started as rain but quickly turned to freezing rain and sleet after it was too late to cancel school. I was a junior in HS at the time and got to "learn" to drive on ice by slipping and sliding home from school that afternoon. Anti-lock brakes weren't really a thing at the time (esp in a 79 Firebird), so braking was a real adventure. Once the cold set it we were below freezing for a couple of days and had basically non-stop light snow. Didn't accumulate to much, but the overcast kept the ice from doing much other than sublimating.

[DukeMu]

He's not wrong tho lol

but all kidding aside, I would rather keep it all liquid here in Austin. I still have PTSD from 2021 and 2023 and as I said back then, I've had more than enough frozen precipitation to last me the rest of my life. Bring on the rain. Leave the freezing temps behind.

As long as no one drives. Black ice guaranteed overnight.

Some people have to drive to work and even parts of Austin proper have some decent hills. I remember mapping a road cut on 360 and while its the Austin Chalk around campus it is older Edwards Limestone there. Early introduction to climate change mapping, deep water and shallow water (to very shallow briny water) fossils repeat in the Edwards.

I love looking at the limestone layers and Earth's history on 360/Capital of Texas Hwy...naturally, while keeping eyes on the road.

[wxman57]

Not much difference in the 12Z models for Houston. Near freezing Sat/Sun with precip. 12Z EC backed off on freezing rain/sleet amounts for us. Canadian is still nuts. AI models don't handle the abrupt drop in temperatures. Typically all those very warm temperatures Saturday morning will trend way colder this week. Models don't handle the onset of the cold well.

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZJan19Models.jpg

[Brent]

Worse than January 1988??

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/2013323804030968259

Just for reference but 1988 had totals well over a foot around here

[bubba hotep]

Since the flip yesterday, the Euro and EPS have been pretty consistent, with the band of highest QPF being along the I-20 corridor. The EPS has trended colder at the surface with each run.

[Ntxw]

Since the flip yesterday, the Euro and EPS have been pretty consistent, with the band of highest QPF being along the I-20 corridor.

WPC winter wx discussion this afternoon will be interesting. They were highlighting a large area of up to ~30% chance (prior to today's guidance) of risk just about along the I-20 corridor up to the mid-Atlantic.

[wxman57]

EC and CMC keep the snow line north of D-FW. GFS has 2-4" across D-FW, but it tends to overdue snowfall. I imagine there will be changes during the coming days. Meanwhile, my office temperature is up to 81.9 degrees. Almost starting to feel warm in here. Only problem is that there's a cold front just outside of my office door.

Oh, note that the NWS tends to use the National Blend of Models, which is a blend of some that are way too warm and way too cold. That's reflected in their winter precip maps. It's not going to verify well until the models start handling the arrival of the cold air better.

[bubba hotep]

FWD continues to slow walk, but is now calling for "minor to moderate" impacts this weekend from winter weather.

[wxman57]

FWD continues to slow walk, but is now calling for "minor to moderate" impacts this weekend from winter weather.

They still saying only a 40% chance of precip this weekend? That would be ridiculous.

[Ntxw]

FWD continues to slow walk, but is now calling for "minor to moderate" impacts this weekend from winter weather.

They still saying only a 40% chance of precip this weekend? That would be ridiculous.

Here is their latest forecast for the airport.

NWS Forecast for: Dallas / Fort Worth International Airport TX
Issued by: National Weather Service Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Last Update: 11:21 am CST Jan 19, 2026

M.L.King Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 50. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 29. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 54. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers after midnight. Increasing clouds, with a steady temperature around 50. South wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. South wind around 5 mph becoming north northeast in the morning.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. East wind around 5 mph.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 50. East northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday Night: Rain showers likely before midnight, then rain showers, freezing rain, and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday: Snow showers, freezing rain, and sleet likely. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 32.

[snownado]

FWD continues to slow walk, but is now calling for "minor to moderate" impacts this weekend from winter weather.

Slow walk is probably the wise move ATM.