Texas Winter 2023-2024

Winter Weather Discussion

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2581 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:52 pm

What is going on? Why are all of the models trending drier??
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2582 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:55 pm

Iceresistance wrote:What is going on? Why are all of the models trending drier??


I dunno but one TV station still has a 4-8 band. I would like some of what they are smoking
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2583 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:56 pm

Iceresistance wrote:What is going on? Why are all of the models trending drier??

Not sure, the precipitable water and PWAT anomalies do not seem to align even with the new GFS. I’m sure it’s something to do with the upper atmosphere or something one of the Mets could better explain.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2584 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:57 pm

Gotwood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:What is going on? Why are all of the models trending drier??

Not sure, the precipitable water and PWAT anomalies do not seem to align even with the new GFS. I’m sure it’s something to do with the upper atmosphere or something one of the Mets could better explain.


Well if this does bust and not snow here I'm totally blaming the Arctic air... 100 percent. I'm sure the fact we're gonna be 10 degrees Sunday is not helping us at all
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2585 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:58 pm

Gotwood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:What is going on? Why are all of the models trending drier??

Not sure, the precipitable water and PWAT anomalies do not seem to align even with the new GFS. I’m sure it’s something to do with the upper atmosphere or something one of the Mets could better explain.


It's been trending drier, and I am having a hard time properly explaining it. It's not just the GFS that is doing it, it's all of the models.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2586 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:59 pm

Brent wrote:
Gotwood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:What is going on? Why are all of the models trending drier??

Not sure, the precipitable water and PWAT anomalies do not seem to align even with the new GFS. I’m sure it’s something to do with the upper atmosphere or something one of the Mets could better explain.


Well if this does bust and not snow here I'm totally blaming the Arctic air... 100 percent. I'm sure the fact we're gonna be 10 degrees Sunday is not helping us at all

Yeah it’s a bummer for sure, that and the coming weeks are in question as well. Just odd timing for the wells to go dry.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2587 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:00 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Gotwood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:What is going on? Why are all of the models trending drier??

Not sure, the precipitable water and PWAT anomalies do not seem to align even with the new GFS. I’m sure it’s something to do with the upper atmosphere or something one of the Mets could better explain.


It's been trending drier, and I am having a hard time properly explaining it. It's not just the GFS that is doing it, it's all of the models.

Yeah I’ve been looking through all of them pretty bizarre I guess we just have to let it play out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2588 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:07 pm

Ya and my area seems to be asking… what cold front… it comes down to cuero and then backs up! I always thought these fronts push through… being in Victoria I’m kind of feeling better about no ice… :)
CMC and rgem show the most precip
Last edited by jaguars_22 on Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2589 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:08 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:Ya and my area seems to be asking… what cold front… it comes down to cuero and then backs up! I always thought these fronts push through… being in Victoria I’m kind of feeling better about no ice… :)

Let’s check back in tomorrow night and see what happens with the front.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2590 Postby Harp.1 » Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:13 pm

The temps on the gfs are insane!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2591 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:20 pm

School already closed here Tuesday for the cold

OU closed already too
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2592 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:21 pm

Lol the 00z CMC has another strong arctic front with another shot of really cold air
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2593 Postby Harp.1 » Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:25 pm

For us in south Louisiana, it’s always the same thing. Cold air chasing precipitation. Never works out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2594 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:40 pm

Looks like the front / cold air is over performing so far, could have some pretty big implications if that ends up being the case once the front plows through texas
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2595 Postby Harp.1 » Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:43 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Looks like the front / cold air is over performing so far, could have some pretty big implications if that ends up being the case once the front plows through texas

Where is the front right now?
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2596 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:47 pm

Harp.1 looks to be in oklahoma right now, it’s making fast progrss south
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2597 Postby Harp.1 » Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:57 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Harp.1 looks to be in oklahoma right now, it’s making fast progrss south

Oklahoma??? Wow! That’s fast!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2598 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:59 pm

At least to me it appears the front is pushing south even faster than some of the “ fastest guidance” also front is over performing by a good 3-5 degrees in some areas, could have significant implications down here
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2599 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sat Jan 13, 2024 12:00 am

-40 in beautiful East Glacier Park right now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2600 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 13, 2024 12:22 am

Both GEFS and CMC Ensembles continue to indicate a secondary arctic blast next Friday. Pretty strong signal/agreement 7 days out.
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