Texas Winter 2023-2024
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9289
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
What is going on? Why are all of the models trending drier??
2 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38095
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Iceresistance wrote:What is going on? Why are all of the models trending drier??
I dunno but one TV station still has a 4-8 band. I would like some of what they are smoking
2 likes
#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Iceresistance wrote:What is going on? Why are all of the models trending drier??
Not sure, the precipitable water and PWAT anomalies do not seem to align even with the new GFS. I’m sure it’s something to do with the upper atmosphere or something one of the Mets could better explain.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38095
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Gotwood wrote:Iceresistance wrote:What is going on? Why are all of the models trending drier??
Not sure, the precipitable water and PWAT anomalies do not seem to align even with the new GFS. I’m sure it’s something to do with the upper atmosphere or something one of the Mets could better explain.
Well if this does bust and not snow here I'm totally blaming the Arctic air... 100 percent. I'm sure the fact we're gonna be 10 degrees Sunday is not helping us at all
2 likes
#neversummer
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9289
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Gotwood wrote:Iceresistance wrote:What is going on? Why are all of the models trending drier??
Not sure, the precipitable water and PWAT anomalies do not seem to align even with the new GFS. I’m sure it’s something to do with the upper atmosphere or something one of the Mets could better explain.
It's been trending drier, and I am having a hard time properly explaining it. It's not just the GFS that is doing it, it's all of the models.
1 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Brent wrote:Gotwood wrote:Iceresistance wrote:What is going on? Why are all of the models trending drier??
Not sure, the precipitable water and PWAT anomalies do not seem to align even with the new GFS. I’m sure it’s something to do with the upper atmosphere or something one of the Mets could better explain.
Well if this does bust and not snow here I'm totally blaming the Arctic air... 100 percent. I'm sure the fact we're gonna be 10 degrees Sunday is not helping us at all
Yeah it’s a bummer for sure, that and the coming weeks are in question as well. Just odd timing for the wells to go dry.
1 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Iceresistance wrote:Gotwood wrote:Iceresistance wrote:What is going on? Why are all of the models trending drier??
Not sure, the precipitable water and PWAT anomalies do not seem to align even with the new GFS. I’m sure it’s something to do with the upper atmosphere or something one of the Mets could better explain.
It's been trending drier, and I am having a hard time properly explaining it. It's not just the GFS that is doing it, it's all of the models.
Yeah I’ve been looking through all of them pretty bizarre I guess we just have to let it play out.
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 597
- Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm
- Location: Victoria TX
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Ya and my area seems to be asking… what cold front… it comes down to cuero and then backs up! I always thought these fronts push through… being in Victoria I’m kind of feeling better about no ice… 
CMC and rgem show the most precip

CMC and rgem show the most precip
Last edited by jaguars_22 on Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
jaguars_22 wrote:Ya and my area seems to be asking… what cold front… it comes down to cuero and then backs up! I always thought these fronts push through… being in Victoria I’m kind of feeling better about no ice…
Let’s check back in tomorrow night and see what happens with the front.
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38095
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
School already closed here Tuesday for the cold
OU closed already too
OU closed already too
2 likes
#neversummer
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2539
- Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:59 pm
- Location: Katy, Tx
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Lol the 00z CMC has another strong arctic front with another shot of really cold air
4 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
For us in south Louisiana, it’s always the same thing. Cold air chasing precipitation. Never works out.
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2539
- Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:59 pm
- Location: Katy, Tx
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Looks like the front / cold air is over performing so far, could have some pretty big implications if that ends up being the case once the front plows through texas
2 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Stratton23 wrote:Looks like the front / cold air is over performing so far, could have some pretty big implications if that ends up being the case once the front plows through texas
Where is the front right now?
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2539
- Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:59 pm
- Location: Katy, Tx
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Harp.1 looks to be in oklahoma right now, it’s making fast progrss south
1 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Stratton23 wrote:Harp.1 looks to be in oklahoma right now, it’s making fast progrss south
Oklahoma??? Wow! That’s fast!!
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2539
- Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:59 pm
- Location: Katy, Tx
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
At least to me it appears the front is pushing south even faster than some of the “ fastest guidance” also front is over performing by a good 3-5 degrees in some areas, could have significant implications down here
2 likes
- ThunderSleetDreams
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1477
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
- Location: S of Weimar, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
-40 in beautiful East Glacier Park right now.
1 likes
#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
- txtwister78
- Category 5
- Posts: 1863
- Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
- Location: San Antonio
Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024
Both GEFS and CMC Ensembles continue to indicate a secondary arctic blast next Friday. Pretty strong signal/agreement 7 days out.
3 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests