Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[northjaxpro]

I expect to see the Jackson, MS WFO, as well as the Greenville/Spartanburg WFO to issue Winter Storm watches for their respective regions as well shortly.

[cycloneye]

This is the graphic made by the Jackson,MS NWS of the upcomming event.

[georgia_tech_swagger]

I expect to see the Jackson, MS WFO, as well as the Greenville/Spartanburg WFO to issue Winter Storm watches for their respective regions as well shortly.

Not so fast.

Looking a bit more dicey ......



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011


-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 PM FRI...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
WINTER STORM IN SOME FORM OR FASHION MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS QUIETLY INCREASING THAT WE WILL HAVE A PRECIP EVENT
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE
DETAILS AT THIS POINT REMAIN QUITE SKETCHY...NOT SO MUCH IN TERMS OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE...BUT THE TEMPS ALOFT AND
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP WE CAN REASONABLY EXPECT.

TO START OFF...THE NW FLOW SNOW ON THE TN BORDER SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY AS THE DAMPENING SHORT
WAVE APROACHES FROM THE WEST AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
DOWN FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL THINK THAT ANY PRECIP WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCEEDINGLY DRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPS CLOSE
TO THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A QUICK DOWNHILL SLIDE AS MOISTURE...
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND UPPER FORCING SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST. PRECIP SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW PIEDMONT. ONCE IT
STARTS...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRECIPITATE ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGHOUT THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY. THE CRUX OF THE PROBLEM IS THE PRECIP TYPE. WE ARE
REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW BECAUSE ALL
MODEL PROFILES ARE SUB FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST 1200 UTC MONDAY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET COMPLICATED. THE NAM
WAS THOUGHT TO BE AN OUTLIER BECAUSE OF ITS SLOWER SOLUTION AND QPF
ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. THE FCST WAS BASED MAINLY ON A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE GFS CAME IN WITH A STRONGER
WARM NOSE SUCH THAT AREAS ALONG AND S OF I-85 WOULD SEE A TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...I AM SUSPICIOUS OF THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW THE GFS IS CREATING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS LATE
MONDAY IN A SORT OF MILLER-B FASHION...AND WONDER IF THE STRONGER
WARM ADVECTION IS A RESULT OF THAT. GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT WARM
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY EATEN
UP BY DYNAMIC COOLING...THAT WILL DELAY ANY PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...AND MORE TO THE SOUTH OF I-85. THE SFC TEMP
FORECAST IS CRITICAL...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP AS SNOW
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT. I WOULD HESITATE TO PUT TOO MUCH
STOCK IN THIS RIGHT NOW AS THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE WARM
NOSE STRENGTH. REPRESENTATIVE OF THAT THOUGHT WAS THE 09Z SREF PLUME
DIAGRAMS WHICH REALLY DEMONSTRATED THE POSSIBLE MIXED BAG OF
P-TYPES. THE QPF WAS TAKEN FROM HPC GUIDANCE WITH A GFS/SREF BLEND
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH GIVES US A CONSERVATIVE POTENTIAL SNOW
TOTAL FOR THE EVENT. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE REMAINS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS TO FULLY ENTERTAIN A WATCH.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...THE POP WAS LIMITED TO LIKELY. FOR
NOW...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND LET THE PUBLIC
FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF.
-- End Changed Discussion --

[northjaxpro]

I expect to see the Jackson, MS WFO, as well as the Greenville/Spartanburg WFO to issue Winter Storm watches for their respective regions as well shortly.

Not so fast.

Looking a bit more dicey ......



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011


-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 PM FRI...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
WINTER STORM IN SOME FORM OR FASHION MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS QUIETLY INCREASING THAT WE WILL HAVE A PRECIP EVENT
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE
DETAILS AT THIS POINT REMAIN QUITE SKETCHY...NOT SO MUCH IN TERMS OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE...BUT THE TEMPS ALOFT AND
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP WE CAN REASONABLY EXPECT.

TO START OFF...THE NW FLOW SNOW ON THE TN BORDER SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY AS THE DAMPENING SHORT
WAVE APROACHES FROM THE WEST AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
DOWN FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL THINK THAT ANY PRECIP WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCEEDINGLY DRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPS CLOSE
TO THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A QUICK DOWNHILL SLIDE AS MOISTURE...
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND UPPER FORCING SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST. PRECIP SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW PIEDMONT. ONCE IT
STARTS...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRECIPITATE ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGHOUT THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY. THE CRUX OF THE PROBLEM IS THE PRECIP TYPE. WE ARE
REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW BECAUSE ALL
MODEL PROFILES ARE SUB FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST 1200 UTC MONDAY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET COMPLICATED. THE NAM
WAS THOUGHT TO BE AN OUTLIER BECAUSE OF ITS SLOWER SOLUTION AND QPF
ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. THE FCST WAS BASED MAINLY ON A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE GFS CAME IN WITH A STRONGER
WARM NOSE SUCH THAT AREAS ALONG AND S OF I-85 WOULD SEE A TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...I AM SUSPICIOUS OF THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW THE GFS IS CREATING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MTNS LATE
MONDAY IN A SORT OF MILLER-B FASHION...AND WONDER IF THE STRONGER
WARM ADVECTION IS A RESULT OF THAT. GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT WARM
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY EATEN
UP BY DYNAMIC COOLING...THAT WILL DELAY ANY PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...AND MORE TO THE SOUTH OF I-85. THE SFC TEMP
FORECAST IS CRITICAL...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP AS SNOW
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT. I WOULD HESITATE TO PUT TOO MUCH
STOCK IN THIS RIGHT NOW AS THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE WARM
NOSE STRENGTH. REPRESENTATIVE OF THAT THOUGHT WAS THE 09Z SREF PLUME
DIAGRAMS WHICH REALLY DEMONSTRATED THE POSSIBLE MIXED BAG OF
P-TYPES. THE QPF WAS TAKEN FROM HPC GUIDANCE WITH A GFS/SREF BLEND
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH GIVES US A CONSERVATIVE POTENTIAL SNOW
TOTAL FOR THE EVENT. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE REMAINS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS TO FULLY ENTERTAIN A WATCH.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...THE POP WAS LIMITED TO LIKELY. FOR
NOW...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND LET THE PUBLIC
FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF.
-- End Changed Discussion --

Ah, OK. Just to quickly sum up all of the above, the forecasters at the Greenville office are not fully ready yet to hedge their bet until they see the next set of model runs. They are being cautious and that is smart for now.

I think eventually they will probably be issuing some sort of watch for portions of the SC upstate into the NC Piedmont within the next 24 hours.

[rsvh2000]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
329 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH...

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-
080930-
/O.NEW.KCAE.WS.A.0001.110110T0500Z-110111T0000Z/
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LINCOLNTON...THOMSON...MARTINEZ...
EVANS...AUGUSTA...HEPHZIBAH...WAYNESBORO...LANCASTER...ELGIN...
CHERAW...PAGELAND...MCCORMICK...NEWBERRY...WINNSBORO...CAMDEN...
LUGOFF...EDGEFIELD...JOHNSTON...SALUDA...RIDGE SPRING...
WEST COLUMBIA...CAYCE...LEXINGTON...RED BANK...COLUMBIA...
BISHOPVILLE...AIKEN...NORTH AUGUSTA...SUMTER...BARNWELL...
WILLISTON...BLACKVILLE...ORANGEBURG...ST. MATTHEWS...MANNING...
SUMMERTON...BAMBERG...DENMARK
329 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

* LOCATION: PEE DEE...CENTRAL MIDLANDS...CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER
AREA...ALONG WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

* HAZARDS: SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING: THE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...AND EXITING THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: SLICK AND ICY SPOTS ALONG AREA ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[Brent]

Peachtree City:


GIVEN EXPECTED
WARNING CRITERIA FOR SN FOR NORTHERN HALF AND PROSPECTS FOR ICE
ACCUMULATION TO THE SOUTH...WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
ALL AREAS. FOR THE METRO AREAS NORTH...WILL ADVERTISE 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH 5 TO 7 INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH...IT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW DYNAMIC THE SYSTEM BECOMES BUT WILL ADVERTISE 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH THE ICE THREAT BEING MORE OF A CONCERN.

AT THIS POINT...WOULD BE RE-MISSED IF DID NOT MENTION WHERE FORECAST
COULD GO AWRY. SHOULD SQUALL LINE DEVELOP OVER THE GULF...MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAY BE LIMITED AND AMOUNTS MENTIONED ABOVE WOULD BE
LOWER. LIKEWISE...IF WARM NOSE IS STRONG ENOUGH...AND WEDGE HOLDS
AT THE SURFACE...SEVERE ICE EVENT COULD UNFOLD FOR A LAGER PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE EXPECTATIONS IN WINTER STORM
WATCH.

[jabber]

The Raleigh NWS has back off a little bit as well... recent discussion

CONCERNING PTYPES...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...BUT A WEAK
COASTAL LOW...LACK OF A TRUE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...AND A
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW AND H85 LOW WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUPPORTS A
MORE MIXED PTYPE EVENT. SINCE THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO BE
DEAMPLIFIED AND THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE ARE
PROGGED TO OCCUR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY..PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
MAINLY DRIVEN BY MODEST WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALSO
ARGUES FOR A TRANSITION FROM SNOW AT ONSET TO A PTYPE MIX LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING (SNOW NW AND RAIN SE)...FITTING CLIMATOLOGY
QUITE WELL. GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL THICKNESS NOMOGRAMS SUPPORT THIS
THINKING ALSO...SO THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS MORE IN THE WAY OF
A MIX FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIAD.

TEMPS STARTING MONDAY MORNING WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY THE
TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET...BUT GIVEN A COLD START WILL LIKELY HAVE A
HARD TIME SURPASSING THE MID 30S...MAYBE UPPER 30S WHERE PRECIP
HOLDS OFF LONGEST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

[Brent]

Speechless at this.

[Ivanhater]

I really at a loss trying to figure out why the snowfall maps continue to show snow reaching down to the Gulf coast. 18z Nam again shows snow reaching down to the Mississippi Gulf coast and Mobile, Alabama.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
255 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...

.A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER A VERY COLD AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. AS A
RESULT...WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH WILL INCLUDE SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ALZ011>015-017>050-081200-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0001.110109T1800Z-110110T1800Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...
LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MARION...
CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...
VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE...DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA...
PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...
MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...
PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
255 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
NOON MONDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
STARTING AROUND NOON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 INCHES OR LESS ACROSS THE
SOUTH TO 4 TO 7 INCHES ALONG THE NORTH..WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

IN ADDITION...SNOW WILL TRANSITION INTO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. ICE ACCUMULATION COULD
BE AS HIGH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

[Brent]

!!!!

[Ivanhater]

18z Nam snowfall. With the trend of the snow line moving further and further south and still 2 days away. you gotta wonder. It is not every day you see snowfall maps like this down here.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
401 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>038-041>049-052>055-057-081200-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0001.110110T0000Z-110111T0000Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-HARALSON-
CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-
HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY
401 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SUNDAY MORNING AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A WINTER STORM LOCALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY EVENING
AND REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY SNOW THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY...AREAS FORM CARROLLTON TO METRO ATLANTA AND WASHINGTON
WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET...LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS TO 3
TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. NORTH OF THIS AREA...ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE HIGHER WITH 5 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS REMAINING ALL SNOW...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS.

FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE SLEET AND SNOW
WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE...CREATING A
DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR AREA ROADWAYS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL OUT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS EVENT REMAINS 24 TO 36 HOURS OUT
AND THAT MINOR DEVIATIONS IN THE STORM TRACK OR TEMPERATURE
PROFILES COULD RESULT IN MORE OR LESS WINTER IMPACTS ACROSS THE
AREA. PLEASE PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THIS
OFFICE AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THIS
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

[PTPatrick]

I have decided that the snow shown down south toward mobile, hburg, etc is just little wet bulbing sleet and snow at the onset...column looks to warm through Sunday night. That is the only way I canexplain it.

[Ivanhater]

I have decided that the snow shown down south toward mobile, hburg, etc is just little wet bulbing sleet and snow at the onset...column looks to warm through Sunday night. That is the only way I canexplain it.

Check out twisterdata, it starts accumulating at 12z on Monday not at the beginning. Very odd.

[BigB0882]

I'm tempted to hop in the car and drive to enjoy the event but with the possibilities of icing, I don't want to get stuck anywhere for more than a day. It sucks being so close to the action but that seems to be the norm for here. I can't complain, though, we've had an amazing last few winters.

[northjaxpro]

I have decided that the snow shown down south toward mobile, hburg, etc is just little wet bulbing sleet and snow at the onset...column looks to warm through Sunday night. That is the only way I canexplain it.

That is pretty much it in a nut shell. Areas in extreme Southern MS, AL will be dependent upon the wet bulbing factor, mainly during the day on Sunday if the precipitation moves in early enough. There may be just enough dynamic cooling at the very onset to see mixed bag of wintry precipitation in inland areas just north of Mobile and into extreme Southern AL and westward to inland SE Mississippi to the Hattiesburg area.

It is all dependent upon the track of the surface Low pressure system on Sunday. Any deviation of the track 50-100 miles either way will make a HUGE impact one way or the other. If the Low Pressure area tracks inland along the coast, then the probability increases for the warm nose to lift north to severely cripple this particular region's chances for frozen precip. If the Low stays a little farther off shore, then thermal profiles will remain at levels sufficiently cold enough to possibly have a mix precip bag this far south.

A very interesting situation to monitor this weekend over there and the next model runs over the next 24-36 hours should nail down what will happen hopefully.

I will add that if the Low pressure moves more inland, look for a major icing event across many areas of AL and GA. A track a little more to the north for the Low pressure area would mean definitely a more pronounced warm nose and hence a more freezing rain event is my fear, which is the absolute worst scenario.

[Ivanhater]

Wow! Winter storm watch issued

[Metalicwx220]

So whats the possibility of snow in florida. Is there still that artic outbreak potential next week?

[Ivanhater]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
338 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM EXISTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
INTO OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...

ALZ051>058-MSZ067-075-076-080545-
/O.NEW.KMOB.WS.A.0001.110109T1800Z-110110T1800Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN
338 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY GATHERING STRENGTH TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA
WILL MOVE IN ATOP A COLD DOME OF AIR ON SUNDAY THAT WILL ALREADY BE
IN PLACE WITHIN OUR REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS A MIX
OF SLEET AND RAIN ONCE THE ONSET BEGINS JUST BEFORE NOON ON SUNDAY
WEST OF I-65. AS TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN IS POSSIBLE EXCEPT A MIX OF SLEET AND
RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84.

AS TIME PROGRESSES INTO SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
INCREASE. THIS WILL CAUSE A CHANGE BACK TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET...WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. AT THIS
TIME...AREAS SOUTH OF A WIGGINS TO CITRONELLE TO BREWTON TO ANDALUSIA
LINE CAN EXPECT MAINLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TREND HAS BEEN TO
ADJUST THIS FURTHER SOUTH.

AT THIS TIME WE ARE VERY CONCERNED THAT A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF ICING
COULD POTENTIALLY FORM ON TREES...POWER LINES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LINE...ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS...FROM MID SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. TRYING TO
PINPOINT THE EXACT AREA OF ICING IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
THIS POTENTIAL MUST BE CONVEYED DUE TO THE SERIOUS IMPACTS THAT ARISE
WHEN FROM ICING.

AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING...THE ICE WILL
BEGIN TO MELT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 INCHES OR MORE IN 12 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE...
CREATING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...
KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN
YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.