Texas Winter 2010-2011

[txagwxman]

Very interesting video, thanks!

EDIT: I shouldn't have watched it. Now I'm going to be glued to mini ice age articles and not get anything done! I'm guessing magnetic reversal plays a big part in ice ages?

Junk science. I don't believe that sun spots have much of an impact at all. Net radiation loss/gain is roughly 1.3 watt/m^2. Maybe it has some effect on the upper-atmosphere and the QBO. However, not convinced.

[gpsnowman]

Man, this is frustrating. Another storm just to our north. Oklahoma got hit pretty good. One of these bad boys is going to hit the Metroplex before it is all said and done. This cold day with wind sure does feel great though. Cant complain about that!

[DonWrk]

We have plenty of cold to pay attention to the next few weeks alone nonetheless a mini ice age

Yeah, definitely don't need to get that conversation started up and just focus on things in there near futue lol

[txagwxman]

Just not much precip today in DFW. Probably GOOD, because DFW now 31F.

[DentonGal]

Very interesting video, thanks!

EDIT: I shouldn't have watched it. Now I'm going to be glued to mini ice age articles and not get anything done! I'm guessing magnetic reversal plays a big part in ice ages?

LOL DonWrk! I know what you mean...it's all so very interesting! Solar minimums are a lot easier for me to understand than all this weather data....but I'm getting there!

[txagwxman]

Euro no snow Monday.

[Ntxw]

Euro no snow Monday.

What about the following energy? Looks more like the GFS to me vs the Canadian which digs it into MX. QPF on the GFS isn't impressive but my guess is it will correct itself. I can't imagine such a non event with a potential cutoff.

[MississippiWx]

Noticed on the 12z GFS that it brings that cut-off low east into MS and LA, while showing an increase in QPF. Looks like a snow event here, but too bad it's still 6 days out. Hopefully it's a trend that will stick around. Gotta believe it will start showing more QPF back into TX as well.

[srainhoutx]

Euro no snow Monday.

What about the following energy? Looks more like the GFS to me vs the Canadian which digs it into MX. QPF on the GFS isn't impressive but my guess is it will correct itself. I can't imagine such a non event with a potential cutoff.

At hour 168, that feature is in S AZ/N MX. At hour 192, it's over the Baja

[Ntxw]

Euro no snow Monday.

What about the following energy? Looks more like the GFS to me vs the Canadian which digs it into MX. QPF on the GFS isn't impressive but my guess is it will correct itself. I can't imagine such a non event with a potential cutoff.

At hour 168, that feature is in S AZ/N MX. At hour 192, it's over the Baja

Yeah I see that. I was more pointing out the quirks of the GFS lacking moisture. It's a long way out to talk about details but a baja low is definitely optimistic! Euro also has a strong storm off Northern/Central California. First real big storm to penetrate the west coast ridge. Hmm...

[downsouthman1]

Euro no snow Monday.

What about the following energy? Looks more like the GFS to me vs the Canadian which digs it into MX. QPF on the GFS isn't impressive but my guess is it will correct itself. I can't imagine such a non event with a potential cutoff.

At hour 168, that feature is in S AZ/N MX. At hour 192, it's over the Baja

The 12Z GFS must be showing this move around beyond 126 hours, since I see it in West Texas by El Paso, Southern New Mexico, & adjacent Northern Mexico. It appears to be sitting in the base of the trough & it looks to me like it will be moving somewhat ELY/NELY from there, with it being fed moisture from the Gulf of Mexico by the 1028MB High that should be centered over Arkansas.

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST!

[jasons2k]

I think some of my DFW friends have been too spoiled over the last few years with snow events. I lived many a year up there and saw nothing while OKC and Wichita Falls got pounded. It's just not normal for the DFW to get dumped-on every year, or multiple times each year, or have a foot of snow in one helping. More "normal" is an ice threat once or twice each year (if that) and a snow event every few years. If you got over 2 or 3 inches at once that would be considered a very rare snowstorm indeed. This streak of getting nailed each winter just won't last forever....

[downsouthman1]

I think some of my DFW friends have been too spoiled over the last few years with snow events. I lived many a year up there and saw nothing while OKC and Wichita Falls got pounded. It's just not normal for the DFW to get dumped-on every year, or multiples times each year, or have a foot of snow in one helping. More "normal" is an ice threat once or twice each year (if that) and a snow event every few years. If you got over 2 or 3 inches at once that would be considered a very rare snowstorm indeed. This streak of getting nailed each winter just won't last forever....

Not to contradict you but if climate change has anything to do with it, I would say we will start to experience a new norm. But I know what you mean, when I lived up there, we would call a good snow 2-3 inches in 1 helping once/year.

[Ntxw]

I think some of my DFW friends have been too spoiled over the last few years with snow events. I lived many a year up there and saw nothing while OKC and Wichita Falls got pounded. It's just not normal for the DFW to get dumped-on every year, or multiple times each year, or have a foot of snow in one helping. More "normal" is an ice threat once or twice each year (if that) and a snow event every few years. If you got over 2 or 3 inches at once that would be considered a very rare snowstorm indeed. This streak of getting nailed each winter just won't last forever....

I hear ya. But I'm not so sure exactly what 'normal' is anymore! There hasn't been a good ice storm in Texas the second half of the 2000s since the PDO went cold. We haven't been in such a regime since the 1950s-1970s. Wxman is suffering without his warm January and it looks like Feb isn't too optimistic . I don't think the Houston snow miracles the past few years were a mere coincidence. We may have to just go over what's 'normal'

[srainhoutx]

HPC giving some credence to the digging short wave idea next week...

12Z UPDATE... NEW GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DAY 3 SUN PLAINS EVOLUTION WITH A BETTER
DEFINED SFC REFLECTION THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE FINAL FCST
INCORPORATES IDEAS FROM THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC WITH THE GFS LESS
FAVORED AS IT IS ON THE DEEP SIDE OF THE SOLN SPREAD. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT AS HIGH AS BEFORE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST. THE
UKMET/CMC HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SCENARIO OF PULLING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ENERGY SWWD INTO NWRN MEXICO BY DAY 5 TUE
THUS LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE/EWD WRN ATLC SYSTEM. HOWEVER
THE 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS CONTINUITY... ALBEIT IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FORM... TOWARD A MORE CONSOLIDATED NRN STREAM MID LVL SYSTEM THAT
ULTIMATELY MAINTAINS AN EAST COAST SFC LOW ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE SPREAD. SOME TIMING/DETAIL DIFFS ARE NOTED WITH UPSTREAM
FEATURES WITH MORE DATA DESIRED BEFORE MAKING A CONFIDENT
ADJUSTMENT. FOR DAYS 4-7 THE FULL EVALUATION OF LATEST SOLNS IN
LIGHT OF SENSITIVITY OF THE FCST PATTERN FAVORS ONLY MINOR DETAIL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE UPDATED PRELIM ISSUANCE.



THE LARGE SCALE MEAN PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDS
OVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. THE MOST EXTREME READINGS ARE FCST
OVER THE NORTHEAST ON SUN-MON WHEN HIGHS MAY BE UP TO 15-25 F
BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
EVENTUAL NWD EXTENT OF WINTRY PCPN SPREADING EWD FROM THE PLAINS
SUN ONWARD... WITH POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OVER THE NORTHEAST BY
TUE-WED RANGING FROM A MAJOR EVENT TO NO PCPN AT ALL. CURRENT
FCST PREFERENCES ARE TOWARD HAVING AT LEAST SOME PCPN REACHING
NERN AREAS. MEANWHILE DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF GULF INFLOW
THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY MDT-HVY RNFL OVER EXTREME SRN AREAS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LOCATIONS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
GRTLKS/OH VALLEY MAY SEE ONE OR MORE DAYS OF LGT SNOW. THOUGH A
LOW PROBABILITY SOLN AT THIS TIME... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
RESIDUAL SRN STREAM ENERGY TO GENERATE ANOTHER GULF OF MEXICO WAVE
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
RAUSCH

[Portastorm]

Encouraging but will there be enough cold air to make something of it?!

Even with ULLs, you still have to have air temperatures close enough to freezing to optimize that full column cooling on top.

[Cuda17]

Looks good for Austin on the 3rd/4th. We'll see...

[Cuda17]

Hmmmm... even Houston is getting in on it for the 3rd/4th of Feb. Here's hoping...

[downsouthman1]

Hmmmm... even Houston is getting in on it for the 3rd/4th of Feb. Here's hoping...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/iahgfsb.png

Do Killeen. Do Killeen please! As I'm the only representative in here from Killeen, it is pertinent to me. LOL

[Cuda17]

Hmmmm... even Houston is getting in on it for the 3rd/4th of Feb. Here's hoping...

Do Killeen. Do Killeen please! As I'm the only representative in here from Killeen, it is pertinent to me. LOL

Ha, ha... I don't have one for Killeen, Austin is the closest meteo to Killeen, from the sight that I get them from:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/meteograms.html