Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

Euro's first big high building in the arctic 1057mb



Correction: It had 1055 last night so second lol

[orangeblood]

Euro's first big high building in the arctic 1057mb


Correction: It had 1055 last night so second lol

Coincides with the SSW lag time down to the surface of 7-14 days

[TeamPlayersBlue]

For todays rain event, it looks like the GFS is winning so far. Massive rains just off shore.

[cycloneye]

Hopefully,this rain event trims a bit the drought conditions that some parts of Texas has been enduring. But as some have said,maybe too much rain will cause floodings. Here is loop that doesn't update.

[dhweather]

Luis, it looks like the GFS might have been right, most of the heavy rain out in the Gulf, which doesn't need the water!

[Ntxw]

Why are we betting the lowest resolution non-mesoscale model to be right about rain? The main storm is still in Mexico, lift doesn't even arrive until tonight. The rain you see in the Gulf is from boundaries.

[HouTXmetro]

Ntxw, I just love your insight. Keep it coming!

[Portastorm]

For todays rain event, it looks like the GFS is winning so far. Massive rains just off shore.

I don't understand this. The GFS this morning progged the heaviest rains over the I-35 corridor (just east) in central and south Texas. Did it also show a convective blob in the Gulf?

[weatherdude1108]

Ntxw, I just love your insight. Keep it coming!

Couldn't agree more HouTXmetro! Thanks Ntwx for keeping things in perspective! I know our reading of the models can be open to interpretation, confusing, and stir up emotions at times for many of us (including me), which can start the rumor mill. It is cool to have someone on here (and others) who can address and explain the models based on best educated guesses, without the -removed- bias. I'm very guilty of -removed-. I'm trying to get better though.

[gboudx]

For todays rain event, it looks like the GFS is winning so far. Massive rains just off shore.

I don't understand this. The GFS this morning progged the heaviest rains over the I-35 corridor (just east) in central and south Texas. Did it also show a convective blob in the Gulf?

TPB may be referring to the precipitation forecast from the 06z GFS which dhweather posted a couple pages back.

http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/2708 ... 2606am.png

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting discussion early next week!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
318 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SHORT RANGE FORECAST ENSEMBLES FORECAST A DEVELOPING SQUALL
LINE BY MID EVENING OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA PUSHING SLOWLY
EAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS BY NOON WEDNESDAY.
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SQUALL LINE LUMBERS INTO EASTERN
SECTIONS...THE WARM FRONT NOW SITUATED OFFSHORE TO THE LOWER VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THIS AREA...WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY
RESULTING IN STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AT THE
INTERFACE OF THE WARM FRONT BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WITH A LLJ IN EXCESS OF 35 TO 40 KTS. AS THE
SQUALL TAPS RICHER MOISTURE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...IN A DEEPLY MOIST AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE
SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS...WITH THE CONTINUAL
TRAINING OF CELLS NORTHWARD LIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOCALIZED
URBAN OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN
EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NOON FOR AN AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM GEORGETOWN AND AUSTIN TO GONZALES AND YORKTOWN. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN EJECTING NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT PUSHING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN PORTIONS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE VARYING
SOLUTIONS BUT IN GENERAL...THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING AN END TO OUR RAIN EVENT AS DRIER
WESTERLY AIR SWEEPS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. DECREASING CLOUDINESS
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AFTER COOL MORNING LOWS (UPPER 30S TO 40S).

THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL AID IN EJECTING THIS SYSTEM INTO THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS THURSDAY WILL DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN AND LOW CLOUDS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S OVER ALL BUT HILL COUNTRY
LOCATIONS. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY IN A BROADSCALE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT. EUROPEAN
AND GFS MODELS BOTH PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
COLDER AIRMASS BUILDS SOUTH UNDER A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY JET.
OVERRUNNING RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH BROADSCALE WAA
CONTINUING ALOFT. DEPENDING UPON THE AMOUNT OF OVERRUNNING WE
INCUR FROM CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 COULD SEE SOME
ICE. TOO EARLY NOW TO MAKE A DEFINITIVE STATEMENT ON THIS GIVEN
LACK OF DETAIL REGARDING THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS COMING INTO
THE REGION. WE'LL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL RUNS BEFORE FORECASTING
AN ICE EVENT.

[PTrackerLA]

Actually the radar right now is aligning very well with what the 12z GFS showed which was extremely heavy rain moving out of the gulf into south Louisiana through tomorrrow morning with 5-10" amounts in Louisiana and extreme east Texas and a general 1.5"-3" for most of Texas. Wish we could share some more from here I feel like I need to be building my ark tonight .

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Interesting discussion early next week!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
318 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SHORT RANGE FORECAST ENSEMBLES FORECAST A DEVELOPING SQUALL
LINE BY MID EVENING OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA PUSHING SLOWLY
EAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS BY NOON WEDNESDAY.
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SQUALL LINE LUMBERS INTO EASTERN
SECTIONS...THE WARM FRONT NOW SITUATED OFFSHORE TO THE LOWER VALLEY
WILL MOVE INTO THIS AREA...WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY
RESULTING IN STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AT THE
INTERFACE OF THE WARM FRONT BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WITH A LLJ IN EXCESS OF 35 TO 40 KTS. AS THE
SQUALL TAPS RICHER MOISTURE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...IN A DEEPLY MOIST AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE
SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS...WITH THE CONTINUAL
TRAINING OF CELLS NORTHWARD LIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOCALIZED
URBAN OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN
EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NOON FOR AN AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM GEORGETOWN AND AUSTIN TO GONZALES AND YORKTOWN. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN EJECTING NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT PUSHING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN PORTIONS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE VARYING
SOLUTIONS BUT IN GENERAL...THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING AN END TO OUR RAIN EVENT AS DRIER
WESTERLY AIR SWEEPS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. DECREASING CLOUDINESS
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AFTER COOL MORNING LOWS (UPPER 30S TO 40S).

THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL AID IN EJECTING THIS SYSTEM INTO THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS THURSDAY WILL DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN AND LOW CLOUDS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S OVER ALL BUT HILL COUNTRY
LOCATIONS. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY IN A BROADSCALE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT. EUROPEAN
AND GFS MODELS BOTH PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
COLDER AIRMASS BUILDS SOUTH UNDER A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY JET.
OVERRUNNING RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH BROADSCALE WAA
CONTINUING ALOFT. DEPENDING UPON THE AMOUNT OF OVERRUNNING WE
INCUR FROM CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 COULD SEE SOME
ICE. TOO EARLY NOW TO MAKE A DEFINITIVE STATEMENT ON THIS GIVEN
LACK OF DETAIL REGARDING THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS COMING INTO
THE REGION. WE'LL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL RUNS BEFORE FORECASTING
AN ICE EVENT.

Ha, beat me too and I'm surprised our brused rear end kicker on here Portastorm didn't post it. That's kind of bold coming from EWX knowing past performances with winter events, say like the one last week.

[Portastorm]

My rear-end isn't bruised, brutha ... I learned years ago not to trust the GFS beyond 3-4 days!

OK, on the precip issue, I now see what dhweather and TeamPlayersBlue were talking about. I would concur that the precip is lining up much like the 12z GFS progged.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

NWS Houston looks like they are hoping on the Arctic Express.....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAINS RELATIVELY RAIN FREE AT
THE MOMENT BETWEEN TWO LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. THE FIRST IS A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX CENTERED NEAR LUFKIN...WITH TRAILING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE US 59 CORRIDOR THROUGH
HOUSTON. THE SECOND IS A LARGE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS
FEATURE IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION AT THE MOMENT AS IT IS ACTING TO LIMIT INFLOW TO THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THAT SAID...THE REGION STILL STANDS TO RECEIVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL
OFF TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING INTO THE
STATE NEAR DEL RIO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AS THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW LEADS TO THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST AND
DRAWS THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES IN THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE WIND EVENT EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRONG SQUALL LINE NEAR THE I 35 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE WITH
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
RELATIVELY DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH REGARD TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE RELATIVELY STRONG MJO
SIGNAL MENTIONED YESTERDAY HAS NOW MOVED INTO PHASE 5. THIS
SIGNAL...COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
LONGWAVE RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW WEEKS FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE ARCTIC. OF
INTEREST ARE THE VERY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES FORECAST ACROSS THE
ARCTIC LATER THIS MONTH (1050-1060 MB) WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH
COLDER AIR TO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IF THEY WERE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. WHILE ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LATTER
PORTION OF JANUARY INTO FEBRUARY COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE OF TEXAS.[/color]

[gboudx]

Pertinent wintry weather part from DFW:

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORE INTERESTING PART OF THIS SCENARIO IS WHAT
HAPPENS AFTER THE COLD AIR FILTERS INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A DEEP ELONGATED TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS CONCERNING
BECAUSE THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW...AND ANY MOISTURE
OVER THIS COLD AIR COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH
COULD RESULT IN SOME UNWANTED FREEZING RAIN. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INTRODUCE A COLD RAIN IN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
40S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS INDICATE A COLD RAIN FOR
NOW...BUT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE. IF THE SURFACE TEMPS ARE A
FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A
MESSY WINTER WEATHER SITUATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SCENARIO.

[dhweather]

:uarrow:

My rear-end isn't bruised, brutha ... I learned years ago not to trust the GFS beyond 3-4 days!

OK, on the precip issue, I now see what dhweather and TeamPlayersBlue were talking about. I would concur that the precip is lining up much like the 12z GFS progged.

your wisdom is showing - don't trust the GFS beyond 3-4 days.

[dhweather]

Actually the radar right now is aligning very well with what the 12z GFS showed which was extremely heavy rain moving out of the gulf into south Louisiana through tomorrrow morning with 5-10" amounts in Louisiana and extreme east Texas and a general 1.5"-3" for most of Texas. Wish we could share some more from here I feel like I need to be building my ark tonight .

Parts of Louisiana and Mississippi look to be getting massive rains in the next 10 days. Like a foot total when it's said and done.

[Ntxw]

Actually the radar right now is aligning very well with what the 12z GFS showed which was extremely heavy rain moving out of the gulf into south Louisiana through tomorrrow morning with 5-10" amounts in Louisiana and extreme east Texas and a general 1.5"-3" for most of Texas. Wish we could share some more from here I feel like I need to be building my ark tonight .

Parts of Louisiana and Mississippi look to be getting massive rains in the next 10 days. Like a foot total when it's said and done.

Right about that! They will be in the warm sector of the stalled cold/warm boundary. While we deal with several threats of wintry weather (not the kind we love) on the other side.

Here is the latest from HPC which are siding with NAM/Euro for the current system

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Hopefully,this rain event trims a bit the drought conditions that some parts of Texas has been enduring. But as some have said,maybe too much rain will cause floodings. Here is loop that doesn't update.

Even floods aren't all bad. In most places in Texas, floods fill streams, which feed rivers, which fill lakes. And those lakes need a fillin'!