Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Texas Snowman]

Hours of heavy rain with temps in the 30s. Tons of runoff everywhere. At least for local stock tanks, this is just what the doctor ordered!

[Red Raider fan]

Well suns out here but still getting severe thunderstorm watches here.

[weatherdude1108]

We received 1.11 inches of rain in about 20 minutes this morning!

Ponding water covering the right lane of 620. Got in garage. Crazy!

[South Texas Storms]

I got about .30 inch of rain here at my house in SA this morning. I'm very happy and thankful for the early Christmas present from God!

[TheProfessor]

18:00GMT GFS run has -30s and -40s degree temperature in the Dakotas, and -50 and -60 degrees in Wyoming,Idaho,and Montana. Maybe that could get pushed to the southeast toward Texas?

[Portastorm]

18:00GMT GFS run has -30s and -40s degree temperature in the Dakotas, and -50 and -60 degrees in Wyoming,Idaho,and Montana. Maybe that could get pushed to the southeast toward Texas?

The 18z GFS run for the last few days seems to get very excited about the weather in the Southern Plains late in its forecast cycle. I believe the model run to which you refer has a 1050mb high coming into Montana around 14 days out. That would, of course, spell a significant Arctic Outbreak for Texas if verified. But it's always that pesky "if verified" phrase that's so problematic when we discuss long-range models!

[gpsnowman]

Good morning weather people. Cold, gray, and breezy 35 degree morning here in GP. Feels nice outside. Looks like Romo could be throwing the ball in thunderstorms today in the nations capital. A below normal Christmas week is ahead for us. No more warm, humid soup for a while. Hopefully we can get some cold to start the new year.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Its like 57 here. What a weak front! Boo that front!

[srainhoutx]

Its like 57 here. What a weak front! Boo that front!

The 850mb front is just approaching Waller/Montgomery/Harris Counties at this hour. Actually is quite cold across the Panhandle into N Texas and the Plains. Add to the mix a very noisy sub tropical jet and you have a recipe for a rather uncertain forecast throughout the coming week as the pattern transitions to that of a more -EPO/+PNA/-AO regime. There will be a lot of volatility via the guidance and large changes appear likely by next weekend as the entire North American pattern reloads and shuffles. It is also noteworthy the convection is increasing across the tropical Pacific and the jet stream appears to buckle with disturbances riding along the Northern branch and additional storms track below the building heights across the Gulf of Alaska. I would not be too surprised to see at least 2-3 rather significant Winter Storms affecting the Lower 48 into the first week or two of January. We will see.

[Portastorm]

BREAKING NEWS ...

PWC REINSTATES 2 METEOROLOGISTS, STARTS HONKING ABOUT UPCOMING 'WINTER'

The Portastorm Weather Center this morning announced it has reinstated the two meteorologists who were placed on a "indefinite hiatus" suspension several days ago due to poor forecasts and on-the-job consumption of Grey Goose vodka. The suspensions came in the wake of a poorly worded, non-sensical forecast statement issued late last week. The PWC chief indicated this morning that the two employees received counseling and are back on the job.

"Yes, Grey Goose vodka is our sponsor and we love it when it's vodka cold outside, but these guys took it too far," the PWC chief said. "Because of what they did, we had to 'duck' from all of the rotten fruit being thrown at us and that in itself casted a pall on our weather 'dynasty.' We believe the two should be fine now and understand how their lapses in judgment hurt the PWC."

The PWC chief went on to say that he believes the winter season is going to hit Texas in a hard way in the next three weeks. He provided maps to the reporters showing how the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern is projected to go positive, the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) staying negative, and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) going negative.

"We're 'honking' because we believe that the combination of a +PNA/-EPO/-AO is going to really chill down Texas and provide some storminess which will, in turn, provide some wintry weather opportunities for the fans of the winter season. As you can see from the 'teal' colors on these maps, cold is coming! Don't pull your 'canvasses back' yet on the backyard hot-tubs and purchase your 'limit' of outdoor faucet covers. Time to get ready folks, and don't be 'blind' to the possibilities."



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[Ntxw]

You beat me to the punch . Finally some fast, good work from those drunken mets in HQ.

It's the first good indication this season of a meaningful -AO period. I still would like to see some stratospheric warming to keep it negative. The risk with a +PNA is that core of cold will slip to our east, but at the very least it will be stormy and the EPO remains negative. No January thaw this year, sorry wxman57. Of course unless you believe NOAA which forecasts a mild month, but then again they have been blown out of water November and December.

[Big O]

:uarrow: You beat me to the punch . Finally some fast, good work from those drunken mets in HQ.

It's the first good indication this season of a meaningful -AO period. I still would like to see some stratospheric warming to keep it negative. The risk with a +PNA is that core of cold will slip to our east, but at the very least it will be stormy and the EPO remains negative. No January thaw this year, sorry wxman57. Of course unless you believe NOAA which forecasts a mild month, but then again they have been blown out of water November and December.

I remember some discussion a few years back that while a +PNA is, generally speaking, a cold sign, the cold will be shunted to the east unless the PNA is only slightly positive. Please correct me if I am wrong.

[Ntxw]

I remember some discussion a few years back that while a +PNA is, generally speaking, a cold sign, the cold will be shunted to the east unless the PNA is only slightly positive. Please correct me if I am wrong.

I think this is mostly correct. The more +PNA the bigger the ridge out west. Location of it is important too, if it's along the west coast that's fine but if it's so strong it moves into the inter-mountain west the trough is then pushed further east. There is a reason why our biggest cold outbreaks are associated with a -PNA and not a +PNA. But conversely a +PNA is good for digging storms deep into Texas.

[Portastorm]

I remember some discussion a few years back that while a +PNA is, generally speaking, a cold sign, the cold will be shunted to the east unless the PNA is only slightly positive. Please correct me if I am wrong.

I think this is mostly correct. The more +PNA the bigger the ridge out west. Location of it is important too, if it's along the west coast that's fine but if it's so strong it moves into the inter-mountain west the trough is then pushed further east. There is a reason why our biggest cold outbreaks are associated with a -PNA and not a +PNA. But conversely a +PNA is good for digging storms deep into Texas.

The eventual location of the polar vortex is also going to play a role here. If the PV ends up west of Hudson Bay that should help us.

But Ntxw is right ... sometimes that +PNA can foster such a large ridge in the West that all of the "good stuff" goes north and east of us. Bears watch.

[northjaxpro]

I remember some discussion a few years back that while a +PNA is, generally speaking, a cold sign, the cold will be shunted to the east unless the PNA is only slightly positive. Please correct me if I am wrong.

I think this is mostly correct. The more +PNA the bigger the ridge out west. Location of it is important too, if it's along the west coast that's fine but if it's so strong it moves into the inter-mountain west the trough is then pushed further east. There is a reason why our biggest cold outbreaks are associated with a -PNA and not a +PNA. But conversely a +PNA is good for digging storms deep into Texas.

Yep, here in the South and the Florida peninsula, a positive PNA is exactly one of the main indicators needed to bring a major cold outbreak in our direction for sure, other than a -AO indicator. As you and the others have pointed out, there are hints that a +PNA and the AO going either neutral or slightly negative may be taking shape by the start of 2014. May be interesting times ahead for you all in Texas and cold finally may arrive in my neck of the woods.

[dhweather]

looking at the 12Z GFS, it looks like all the cold shots go north and east of us. Glancing blows.

Fortunately I know that beyond 3-5 days, the models are mostly garbage.

[TheProfessor]

12:00 GFS shows snow for parts of North Texas next Sunday. Hopefully this is the start of a trend toward a major snow storm for all of Texas!

[TheProfessor]

Overall a good day today. I had some of my favorite weather (cold and cloudy). And the Cowboys won.

[Ntxw]

12:00 GFS shows snow for parts of North Texas next Sunday. Hopefully this is the start of a trend toward a major snow storm for all of Texas!

As mentioned in a previous post, flare up of convection along the international dateline supports a winter storm pattern New Year's week. Worth monitoring and with the PNA/AO changes the storms likely won't eject out flat and in pieces as they have been. Likely deeper and more intense systems between now and mid-January.

[Ntxw]

Yep, here in the South and the Florida peninsula, a positive PNA is exactly one of the main indicators needed to bring a major cold outbreak in our direction for sure, other than a -AO indicator. As you and the others have pointed out, there are hints that a +PNA and the AO going either neutral or slightly negative may be taking shape by the start of 2014. May be interesting times ahead for you all in Texas and cold finally may arrive in my neck of the woods.

I hope so for you guys. I've seen the warmth there on maps and it's ugly. It's like summer over there, it's wxman57's doing. MGC welcomed him over there and he's given you all he's got! A -AO/+PNA signal will beat down that pesky SE ridge!