Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brent]

Already near blizzard conditions in Kansas City

This is gonna be one of the worst snowstorms on record here

[wxman22]

The EPS seems locked in. 6Z Eps snowfall mean below.

[orangeblood]

For those interested in the Euro soundings for late Thursday evening. Pretty substantial warm nose for Austin and San Antonio

DFW


Austin Camp Mabry


San Antonio

[Ntxw]

From a probability standpoint it would be hard to ignore what's happening on the ENS with mean totals. Nevertheless, here is FW's latest.

[HockeyTx82]

From a probability standpoint it would be hard to ignore what's happening on the ENS with mean totals. Nevertheless, here is FW's latest.

https://i.imgur.com/huG2LIZ.png

Are you saying they need to widen that dotted line to the north and south and increase totals?

[Ntxw]

From a probability standpoint it would be hard to ignore what's happening on the ENS with mean totals. Nevertheless, here is FW's latest.

https://i.imgur.com/huG2LIZ.png

Are you saying they need to widen that dotted line to the north and south and increase totals?

Ensembles both GEFS and EPS are zoning in on I-20 corridor for consistent accumulations. In a range now the NWS will probably weight more and thus they did with their graphic.

[Brent]

I'm pretty sure this is gonna make a run for the worst snowstorm ever in Kansas City. The peak isnt even til around 2pm

https://streamable.com/oko0dy

[gboudx]

Front is through Rockwall. Yesterday we moved our youngest son and his friend into an apt down in Nacogdoches. He’s a 2nd semester Junior at SFA. We noticed starting around Canton, I-20 was pretreated eastbound and westbound all the way to our exit at Longview. Ralph is probably seeing that in Lindale as well.

[gpsnowman]

:double:

I'm pretty sure this is gonna make a run for the worst snowstorm ever in Kansas City. The peak is around 2pm

https://streamable.com/oko0dy

Make that the "best snowstorm ever".

[Ntxw]

King Euro
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_precip_inch/1736035200/1736596800-qQ0fyChHnM0.png

Bi Polar GFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_precip_inch/1736035200/1736596800-jRTA7kAxQrw.png

Every single year!!! Broken record with this model

At 5h it had the least amount of change compared to the other OPs which shifted, not in the same way at that, as their own prior runs. Good test if its 500mb skill scores being highest at the medium range holds.

Pretty clear the 0Z GFS was an outlier as 6Z has gone back to more in line with King Euro (at least at 5h). Euro has been the most consistent of all globals by a long shot. Probably wise to overweight this one for the forecast moving forward.

That being said, the Euro Op trend is getting colder with a QPF event on the higher end of the ensemble mean. You can start to see that over the last few runs, axis of heaviest snow and ice starting to move southeast

Nasty ice storm from San Antonio to Austin to Tyler if this colder trend continues

Beef with the Euro is the surface during cold blasts with temps. Perhaps it is fixed, or not, hold judgement on that for a true arctic blast. However there's no denying at 500mb when locked in, it has the best skill scores over the others. So yeah in the 3-7 day range you definitely want the Euro on your side with storm features where it is known for.

[Ralph's Weather]

Front is through Rockwall. Yesterday we moved our youngest son and his friend into an apt down in Nacogdoches. He’s a 2nd semester Junior at SFA. We noticed starting around Canton, I-20 was pretreated eastbound and westbound all the way to our exit at Longview. Ralph is probably seeing that in Lindale as well.

Yes, I20 was treated even I drove it yesterday morning.
I am hoping my call of a limited warm nose around here holds true. Half inch of ice vs heavy snow would suck.

[Fifty Rock]

:double:

I'm pretty sure this is gonna make a run for the worst snowstorm ever in Kansas City. The peak isnt even til around 2pm

https://streamable.com/oko0dy

It’s very possible that it could be the worst, crazy, historic snow storm ever in Kansas City! lol, you sound like a kid at Christmas. Enjoy

[gboudx]

Steve McCauley has made a new post on his FB account. Good read in these early Sunday hours.

It’s worth posting at least a link to his page. His optimism on the potential for DFW increases my level of confidence in wintry precip later this week. Here’s a snippet:

https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley/

By Thursday a strong upper-level disturbance - currently thousands of miles away in the Pacific - will move into Texas. The exact path of the storm will determine who gets which precipitation type (i.e., rain, sleet, or freezing rain) and how much of each type for Thursday and Friday.

Since the storm is so far away, it is not yet possible to say what that exact path will be. For example, a small 10-mile error in the forecast path NOW could mean an error of hundreds of miles by Thursday (i.e., error accumulates over time). But it is clear that a significant part of Texas will see freezing rain, snow, sleet and snow this coming week and that should include the DFW area! But exact type and amounts cannot be predicted this far in advance.
Stay tuned...

[orangeblood]

At 5h it had the least amount of change compared to the other OPs which shifted, not in the same way at that, as their own prior runs. Good test if its 500mb skill scores being highest at the medium range holds.

Pretty clear the 0Z GFS was an outlier as 6Z has gone back to more in line with King Euro (at least at 5h). Euro has been the most consistent of all globals by a long shot. Probably wise to overweight this one for the forecast moving forward.

That being said, the Euro Op trend is getting colder with a QPF event on the higher end of the ensemble mean. You can start to see that over the last few runs, axis of heaviest snow and ice starting to move southeast

Nasty ice storm from San Antonio to Austin to Tyler if this colder trend continues

Beef with the Euro is the surface during cold blasts with temps. Perhaps it is fixed, or not, hold judgement on that for a true arctic blast. However there's no denying at 500mb when locked in, it has the best skill scores over the others. So yeah in the 3-7 day range you definitely want the Euro on your side with storm features where it is known for.

No doubt, really shallow arctic air masses it seems to have trouble. This one is deeper cold with top down cooling so likely handles it better. At 5h, it’s the King in medium range

[Ntxw]

Jan 18th-20th is another storm signal for the southern plains. Just FYI. That will usher in a new PNA regime.

[Gotwood]

Weather channel app bumped projected totals to 3-5 inches of snow. Also colder temps. Front is here crazy winds.

[gboudx]

:double:

I'm pretty sure this is gonna make a run for the worst snowstorm ever in Kansas City. The peak isnt even til around 2pm

https://streamable.com/oko0dy

lol, you sound like a kid at Christmas.

Brent is like Ralphie. All he kept hearing is that he would shoot his eye out, but now he has his Red Ryder BB gun with a compass in the stock, and this thing that tells time.

[TexasF6]

Just eyeballed the texmesonet in the panhandle? The ICON is running 11-12 degrees too warm. Is anyone surprised? I'd like some snow for Austin please!

[jasons2k]

For those interested in the Euro soundings for late Thursday evening. Pretty substantial warm nose for Austin and San Antonio

I mentioned this yesterday - watch out for this as we get closer to Thursday.

[Ntxw]

NWS FW discussion over night (before the 6z suite.) Sometimes it is good to read these discussions rather than just a point forecast. Pretty much highlights everything discussed here.

.LONG TERM... /Issued 329 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025/
/Monday Night and Beyond/

Our period of cold temperatures will continue into midweek with
lows dipping into the 20s region wide Monday night, Tuesday night,
and Wednesday night with a few readings in the teens possible
along the Red River. Expect afternoon highs to only peak in the
mid 30s to mid 40s each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday. It is
becoming increasingly likely that a few locations north of I-20
and across the Big Country will struggle to get above freezing on
Wednesday (30-40% chance). This could put further strain on any
vulnerable and unprotected pipes, so prepare accordingly!

By Wednesday, our well advertised upper-level low will slide over
northwestern Mexico. 700mb-300mb Pacific moisture and shortwave
disturbances downstream of the parent low may be sufficient for
the development of light showers or snow over parts of West Texas
during the day, potentially extending into our western North and
Central counties. However, very dry air below 700 mb will prevent
much, if not all, of this precipitation from reaching the ground.
Still, cannot rule out a few sprinkles or flurries during the day
Wednesday west of Highway 281.

Our main event is still expected to occur in the Thursday-Friday
timeframe (Day 5 and Day 6). We are still monitoring for an
increasingly likely period of wintry weather late in the work
week. The ultimate result will depend upon the track and strength
of the aforementioned upper low. Roughly a 1/3 of the most recent
suite of ensemble members (heavy GEFS and GEPS) indicate a warmer
and less favorable for winter weather over North and Central Texas
solution with the cut-off low meandering near Baja California
detached from the main flow aloft until the weekend. A majority
~2/3 of members (heavy EPS) paint a colder, more favorable
scenario for wintry precipitation over our region with the cut-off
low transitioning into an open wave then quickly shifting into the
Southern Plains in that Thursday-Friday timeframe.

As you all know, most Texas winter weather events are a game of
just a few degrees and radically different outcomes can occur with
just slightly colder or slightly warmer temperatures. This event
will be no different. Right now our forecast leans toward the
colder scenario, therefore we have a rain/snow mix over much of
North and Central Texas in the Thursday morning to Friday morning
time frame. There is now a 60-70% chance that our entire forecast
area observes at least measurable (>0.1" of snowfall). We are also
noticing a northward trend in the heavier snow potential with a
majority of GEFS, GEPS, and EPS members painting an area of 2-3"
of snow generally along and just south of the I-20 and I-30
corridors. Portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley will
likely see warmer temperatures and more rainfall, potentially a
quick period of freezing rain Thursday night, which would eat into
final snow amounts. Do not take these amounts at face value just
yet! Monitor the trends until we get a bit closer to the event.

Potential failure modes: If we end up just 2-3 degrees warmer than
currently forecast, the potential for wintry weather accumulations
will drastically decrease. Additionally, if our beloved cut-off
low does remain displaced to the southwest, the better lift and
moisture will remain just south of our area, and we could see very
little precipitation extend into our forecast area.

Again, the forecast at this moment does favor wintry precipitation
over North and Central Texas and potentially some larger snowfall
accumulations in the Thursday-Friday time frame. In the next
couple of days, we will start to get some help from additional
medium-range model guidance and hopefully we can obtain a clearer
vision on how this event will unfold. But for now, prepare for the
cold (it starts today!) and keep up-to-date with the most current
forecast.

Langfeld