Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Portastorm]

Downsouthman1, check out this link ... while it's not a graphical meteogram, it does have the 12z GFS progged highs and lows and precip ... should it verify ... you'd see some snow.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KHLR

[downsouthman1]

Downsouthman1, check out this link ... while it's not a graphical meteogram, it does have the 12z GFS progged highs and lows and precip ... should it verify ... you'd see some snow.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KHLR

What data on that are you using to conclude that? I didn't see any precip after the drizzle this morning.

[Portastorm]

Downsouthman1, check out this link ... while it's not a graphical meteogram, it does have the 12z GFS progged highs and lows and precip ... should it verify ... you'd see some snow.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KHLR

What data on that are you using to conclude that? I didn't see any precip after the drizzle this morning.

Check your PMs. We can discuss further without clogging up the bandwith.

[wxman57]

Downsouthman1,

Here's a meteogram for Killeen from the 12Z GFS. Note that temps are plotted only for 6am and 6pm each day, the afternoon high will be a bit warmer than the 6pm temp and the morning low possibly a bit cooler.

What it shows is about .14" of precip falling between 6am Wed, Feb 2 and 6pm Wed., Feb 2 with a surface temperature somewhere between 32 and 38 degrees. That would indicate cold rain or sleet and possibly a few snowflakes toward the end of the precip. Of course, you're looking 2 weeks out with the GFS. The GFS does like to tease you in the long-range outlook.

[downsouthman1]

Downsouthman1,

Here's a meteogram for Killeen from the 12Z GFS. Note that temps are plotted only for 6am and 6pm each day, the afternoon high will be a bit warmer than the 6pm temp and the morning low possibly a bit cooler.

What it shows is about .14" of precip falling between 6am Wed, Feb 2 and 6pm Wed., Feb 2 with a surface temperature somewhere between 32 and 38 degrees. That would indicate cold rain or sleet and possibly a few snowflakes toward the end of the precip. Of course, you're looking 2 weeks out with the GFS. The GFS does like to tease you in the long-range outlook.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/killeen.gif

Since that's so far out, I will take that with a thick grain of salt.

[wxman57]

http://www.accuweather.com/video/73146202001/bastardi-a-la-nina-that-is-king?more-cold-to-follow.asp

Great video by JB today. Look at all the cold.. BRRRR

On his "Long Ranger", he shows the ensemble forecast for the end of the month and compares it to the pattern during the March, 1993 "Storm of the Century". It's a fairly close match. Interestingly, the GFS has been predicting the development of a storm in the north-central Gulf of Mexico that tracks up the East U.S. Coast around that time.

Back in 1993, we didn't have any real long-range model guidance. Models typically went out to 48-60 hrs, with a 500mb panel out to 72 and 84 hrs. I have some of the model forecasts saved from back in 1993.

[Ntxw]

On his "Long Ranger", he shows the ensemble forecast for the end of the month and compares it to the pattern during the March, 1993 "Storm of the Century". It's a fairly close match. Interestingly, the GFS has been predicting the development of a storm in the north-central Gulf of Mexico that tracks up the East U.S. Coast around that time.

Back in 1993, we didn't have any real long-range model guidance. Models typically went out to 48-60 hrs, with a 500mb panel out to 72 and 84 hrs. I have some of the model forecasts saved from back in 1993.

Nice to see you give in to this cold Wxman! I'm awaiting for the news of you seeing your shadow or not rising from the Hawaiian fresh bunker! We'll be sure to keep a lookout for that 80+ degree temps. I'm sure it will show up in April! or May!

[wxman57]

Nice to see you give in to this cold Wxman! I'm awaiting for the news of you seeing your shadow or not rising from the Hawaiian fresh bunker! We'll be sure to keep a lookout for that 80+ degree temps. I'm sure it will show up in April! or May!

I'm not giving in, Ntxw. I know the long-range GFS just can't be right. I'm sure it'll be up in the 80s by February 1st.

[amawea]

Yeehaw, we got 4 inches here on the Ar/Mo border. It sure is pretty but it has quit snowing now. They are giving us another chance for snow Sunday night.

edited to add that I know this is the Texas thread but I couldn't help myself.

[BigB0882]

Yeehaw, we got 4 inches here on the Ar/Mo border. It sure is pretty but it has quit snowing now. They are giving us another chance for snow Sunday night.

edited to add that I know this is the Texas thread but I couldn't help myself.

I post in here all the time and I am in Louisiana. I was born in TX so I have birth rights, haha! We love to hear about others getting snow, though, so thanks for sharing!

[benrayrog]

So when's the next possible winter weather event here in the state? We must have something to anticipate and count down!

[Ntxw]

So when's the next possible winter weather event here in the state? We must have something to anticipate and count down!

FW

NEXT WEEK...MODEL DISCREPANCIES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADS TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW NEXT WEEK WILL PAN OUT. THE LAST SEVERAL GFS
RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THEN SWING IT EAST ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SENDS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND FORMS A CLOSE UPPER LOW OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE
MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS SET
UP WOULD FORM A TROUGH EXTENSION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LOW
WESTWARD TO NORTHERN BAJA THAT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...BOTH SCENARIOS SHOULD PRODUCE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS DRY CONDITIONS. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE WILL BE HOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE STATE. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION.

Bottom line, who knows

[Metalicwx220]

HOLY!!!!!! Whats going to happen in an EL Nino(the boy) YEAR? I watched the video.

[BigB0882]

http://www.accuweather.com/video/73146202001/bastardi-a-la-nina-that-is-king?more-cold-to-follow.asp

Great video by JB today. Look at all the cold.. BRRRR

Fascinating video. I am very curious to see if he is on to something. With the way things have been the last 2-3 winters here in the deep south, I tend to think we are heading into a colder period. It doesn't mean we will have a foot of snow in New Orleans every winter but I think temps are on the way down.

[Metalicwx220]

http://www.accuweather.com/video/73146202001/bastardi-a-la-nina-that-is-king?more-cold-to-follow.asp

Great video by JB today. Look at all the cold.. BRRRR

Fascinating video. I am very curious to see if he is on to something. With the way things have been the last 2-3 winters here in the deep south, I tend to think we are heading into a colder period. It doesn't mean we will have a foot of snow in New Orleans every winter but I think temps are on the way down.

Snow forecast for the entire south including florida and South Texas?

[Ntxw]

Man, today has been brutal. I don't think being in the 30s today has ever felt any colder. It actually burns facing the winds. Give me snow over this any day!

[Brandon8181]

Summary of events for today...

The day started out very cold...cooling to near 27 degrees.

We had freezing drizzle this morning which changed to snow for a very short time around noon, then promptly ended; however, there was no accumulation. There was a few slick spots on the road, but not many. Its pretty cold outside now though ...warming up inside

Did DFW end up getting any kind of winter precip?

[iorange55]

So I go away for a day and the snow chances next seem to have gone down :[

IT'S ALWAYS BAD NEWS! Anyways....it's cold.

[gboudx]

Did DFW end up getting any kind of winter precip?

I live in Rockwall and work in Richardson/eastern Plano area(George Bush/75) and we had no wintry precip. Not even freezing drizzle. As wxman57 had said, the precip moved out and shut off before the freezing temps arrived. Thank God we didn't have any ice on the roadways.

[txagwxman]

This arctic front still seems so weak for January. I remember when I was kid growing up in Houston and have afternoons drop into the upper 20s with freezing drizzle.

1985 Jan (San Antonio snow storm)
1982 Jan (12F Houston).
1989 Feb (freezing drizzle to Galveston).


I am with JB I think next winter could be the coldest we have seen since the 70s.