Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[gboudx]

I've already thrown in the towel for this winter and already looking forward to next winter. Hope it's an early one! Much rather have an early winter than late.

I have too. We were spoiled the past 2-3 winters with snow, but some winters need to balance out the averages, and that appears to be the role for this winter. Like I told the kids, at least they won't have any school to make-up on the days scheduled for that. They can just be off from school.

[MGC]

Nature has a tendency to fool us. With all the grass turning green and trees starting to bloom, I'm worried about a killer frost or freeze. I can't remember such an early start to the greening of plants here. We have at least two more months to worry about a frost here....MGC

[wxman57]

Looking at the 12Z models, the GFS keeps freezing temps north of the Red River (generally) through 384 hrs. Euro is similar, though slightly farther north with the southern extent of the freezing line through 240 hrs. Canadian surface temp forecast is only in through 60 hrs and it only goes out a week at 12Z. None of the models is indicating any significant cold in western Canada over the coming weeks. No cold in Canada = no extreme cold down here.

Euro & GFS are in much better agreement on the passing short wave Sunday evening that may produce a narrow swath of heavy snow across the OK panhandle, KS and western MO Sunday night/Monday. Amounts in the 3-6" range though there could be peaks approaching 8-10", probably in southern KS.

Beyond this weekend/early next week, the models each go their own merry ways for the most part as far as timing, location and strength of future storm systems. I'm wishing I hadn't forecast 29F as the lowest temp IAH would see in February for our forecast contest. Could be closer to 35F for this month.

My wife pointed out to me that our red oak is starting to bud out (leaf buds) already. The trees are starting to believe that winter is over. The real key is always going to be when the pecan trees leaf out. They're always the last to leaf out in spring.

[gboudx]

While jogging Sunday, I noticed the Bradford Pears in my neighborhood have started to bud out. The elm tree in our backyard always seems to be a late bloomer. No sign of buds on it yet.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I've given up on this winter, but honestly, the warm weather has been quite enjoyable. I love snow and ice, as rare as it is, but the last two, even three winters here in Houston have been good to those who love a cold, snowy winter. Two accumulating snow events, and one MAJOR arctic outbreak which should have led to an epic storm but instead led to .1" of ice. Still, JB said last year that this years winter would be quite warm, and i remember thinking to myself "thats ok" since recent winters have been cold.

In that same vlog from JB, he did say the next two winters from now would be very cold, so something to look forward to. All in all, we have to give back and suffer for one winter every once and a while.

[Ntxw]

Yeah it is very green out there especially compared to just last summer, very odd. My mother keeps asking me if she can do some early planting on her garden seeing all the warm weather of late, I'm hesitant to tell her yes but this winter has made it very hard.

I'm waiting for this MJO wave to finish it's progress. If it comes out to nothing, I will likely give up on winter for good and declare wxman victorious for 2011-2012! I want to see how things compare via tropical forcing compared to stuff I went through from the last 3 winter threads (thank you to all those who put it on a host site and not just linking)and make a post about it. Hopefully it will explain why this winter is what it was and how it can help us in the medium-long range forecasting for seasons to come.

[MGC]

Here is another indicator of how warm it has been this winter: my electric bill. My Jan 2012 electricity bill is 130.43. My Jan 2011 was 350.56. I have a heat pump. Since my husband and I both hate the cold, we keep the house at 70 during the day a bit cooler at night. Sure has been nice saving that money.....MGC

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I haven't been around for awhile, but to make up for time I will go ahead and post what we all know....

TEXAS WINTER CANCEL!

[weatherdude1108]

Looking at the 12Z models, the GFS keeps freezing temps north of the Red River (generally) through 384 hrs. Euro is similar, though slightly farther north with the southern extent of the freezing line through 240 hrs. Canadian surface temp forecast is only in through 60 hrs and it only goes out a week at 12Z. None of the models is indicating any significant cold in western Canada over the coming weeks. No cold in Canada = no extreme cold down here.

Euro & GFS are in much better agreement on the passing short wave Sunday evening that may produce a narrow swath of heavy snow across the OK panhandle, KS and western MO Sunday night/Monday. Amounts in the 3-6" range though there could be peaks approaching 8-10", probably in southern KS.

Beyond this weekend/early next week, the models each go their own merry ways for the most part as far as timing, location and strength of future storm systems. I'm wishing I hadn't forecast 29F as the lowest temp IAH would see in February for our forecast contest. Could be closer to 35F for this month.

My wife pointed out to me that our red oak is starting to bud out (leaf buds) already. The trees are starting to believe that winter is over. The real key is always going to be when the pecan trees leaf out. They're always the last to leaf out in spring.

I read/heard somewhere a while back that the Mesquite trees are also a good indicator of the end of Winter -- one of the last trees to leaf out. Crepe Myrtles I think are another. I have three Crepe Myrtles in the front yard. The Crepe Myrtles in my yard don't leaf out until the end of March. This year, they may show at the end of February at this rate! Sad that we're talking about greening and budding of plants on a Texas Winter forum.

[somethingfunny]

THE STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTH
TOMORROW. IT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN TROUGH BEFORE EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SHEARED APART AND WEAKENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
PARENT TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR LOW RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL FROM
THIS SYSTEM.

AT THE SAME TIME THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS...THE MAIN
POLAR LOW WHICH HAS BEEN LOCATED IN NORTHEASTERN CANADA FOR MOST
OF THE WINTER SEASON WILL ROTATE SOUTH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND
THIS WILL SEND A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
NORTH TEXAS WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR...WITH
THE COLDEST AIR ACROSS OUR THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE GFS
REMAINS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH...BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BECOME
MORE AGREEABLE WITH THEIR OUTCOMES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE NEAR FREEZING NEAR PARIS AS THE BEST LIFT ARRIVES AND THIS
IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST AIR IS
EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY
WINTER PRECIP. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY SUPPORT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION GIVEN
THE COLDEST AIR IS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL QUICKLY
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID-MORNING WHICH WOULD BE JUST AFTER THE ONSET OF
PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. NEVERTHELESS...THIS IS ON
DAY 6 AND MANY FACTORS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

[Tireman4]

I haven't been around for awhile, but to make up for time I will go ahead and post what we all know....

TEXAS WINTER CANCEL!

NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND

[Ntxw]

I demand a state of the winter address out of PWC after tonight's runs! We want answers! I am contemplating on removing my much beloved avatar since the message has not been delivered!!! Head of PWC needs to step up their game or come election time and the warm crew party will take over this summer!

[Texas Snowman]

I think we need to impeach the Warmingista Crew led by wxman57!

Still too early to say "winter cancel" in Texas.

I've said it before, but some on the Tropics forum were screaming "season cancel" in August 2008.

And then Ike came calling...

[hriverajr]

Yes we are suffering greatly... and warm mongerer is crushing our spirits.. but revenge shall be ours some day

[Portastorm]

The only comment from the PWC this morning is that those who gave up on winter yesterday may want to take a look at how variable the models are now, even at the 72 hour range. For example, the Euro and CMC look A LOT colder by Sunday for North Texas than the GFS. Sprinkle in some precip and ...waa-laa ... you know what you get!

[wxman57]

True, the models are clueless beyond a few days out. However, there's still no cold air in western Canada (or Alaska now). Can't get cold in Texas if temps are well above normal in western Canada. I think we've seen our last freeze in Houston, though I do need a 29F low at IAH for the forecast contest.

[Ntxw]

No chatter about the 0z euro? I know we dont have much faith in modelling atm but its showing snow for dfw around 120+ hrs. I cant post images being on mobile, but one can see on wunderground

[Portastorm]

No chatter about the 0z euro? I know we dont have much faith in modelling atm but its showing snow for dfw around 120+ hrs. I cant post images being on mobile, but one can see on wunderground

Dude ... did you not see my post this morning?!

As for the King of Warm mongerers post ... all I know is that the Euro and CMC carve up portions of north and west Texas with a 0-degree isotherm into Texas by Sunday. Either they're manufacturing cold air out of nothing or there must be cold air coming from somewhere.

[Ntxw]

Your post got canceled out from sir warmness . I saw it, I was just wondering why no one has posted images and beaten it down to death yet given how rare it has been this winter for the ec to show anything!

[wxman57]

Dude ... did you not see my post this morning?!

As for the King of Warm mongerers post ... all I know is that the Euro and CMC carve up portions of north and west Texas with a 0-degree isotherm into Texas by Sunday. Either they're manufacturing cold air out of nothing or there must be cold air coming from somewhere.

Take a look in the panhandle now. 850mb temp down to -4C there now and 0C in the Dallas area. After a brief warm-up, 850mb temps drop down to current levels again on Sunday (00Z ECMWF). Is that the big cold wave you're talking about? Lows in the upper 30s in the Dallas area by Sunday (ECMWF)? That's just slightly below normal air. Quite close to today's temps.