Texas Winter 2013-2014

[northjaxpro]

Yep, here in the South and the Florida peninsula, a positive PNA is exactly one of the main indicators needed to bring a major cold outbreak in our direction for sure, other than a -AO indicator. As you and the others have pointed out, there are hints that a +PNA and the AO going either neutral or slightly negative may be taking shape by the start of 2014. May be interesting times ahead for you all in Texas and cold finally may arrive in my neck of the woods.

I hope so for you guys. I've seen the warmth there on maps and it's ugly. It's like summer over there, it's wxman57's doing. MGC welcomed him over there and he's given you all he's got! A -AO/+PNA signal will beat down that pesky SE ridge!

Ntxw, we have either tied or set new record highs on 5 days this month here in Jax and today may have been the sixth. Today's record high was 82. It has been crazy warm across Florida all month long. Yeah, I am hoping that a +PNA and -AO will develop and bring down some cold our way come January. The Ridge has been stubborn to leave our region that's for sure. But hopefully the ridge will relinquish its grip over our area soon.

[JDawg512]

Now correct me if I'm wrong but I remember looking at the central Pacific water temps back in October and while still looked to be neutral it was on the warmer side and rising. What we have seen recently with these systems and the jet stream pulling up a lot of Pacific moisture across northern Mexico into Texas reminds me of a classic El Niño pattern. To me it's not so much that we are waiting to see an El Niño form it seems that it's started or at least is influencing our weather now. So my question is what are the current water temps right now in the Central Pacific? I haven't seen any recent numbers and are we in a weak El Niño pattern now?

[srainhoutx]

Now correct me if I'm wrong but I remember looking at the central Pacific water temps back in October and while still looked to be neutral it was on the warmer side and rising. What we have seen recently with these systems and the jet stream pulling up a lot of Pacific moisture across northern Mexico into Texas reminds me of a classic El Niño pattern. To me it's not so much that we are waiting to see an El Niño form it seems that it's started or at least is influencing our weather now. So my question is what are the current water temps right now in the Central Pacific? I haven't seen any recent numbers and are we in a weak El Niño pattern now?

We may be seeing a weak Modoki W based El Nino developing.



http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research ... _s.html.en

[wxman57]

European deterministic and ensembles say no freeze in Houston for 10 days, GFS says no freeze for 16 days. Fine with me.

[ronyan]

European deterministic and ensembles say no freeze in Houston for 10 days, GFS says no freeze for 16 days. Fine with me.

Lousy for winter time, we could use some cold air. The indices look to be moving in the right direction from what I understand. If you went by the ensembles from a couple weeks ago we would be in the deep freeze now...so hopefully they are not seeing the whole picture.

[Portastorm]

European deterministic and ensembles say no freeze in Houston for 10 days, GFS says no freeze for 16 days. Fine with me.

I would be very, VERY surprised if you could make this same statement in about five days.

[Ntxw]

European deterministic and ensembles say no freeze in Houston for 10 days, GFS says no freeze for 16 days. Fine with me.

Lousy for winter time, we could use some cold air. The indices look to be moving in the right direction from what I understand. If you went by the ensembles from a couple weeks ago we would be in the deep freeze now...so hopefully they are not seeing the whole picture.

This is not correct, the ensembles never forecasted a deep freeze. What we looked at was a "favorable" pattern not the surface temperatures through the ensembles, in essence it was the translator's fault not the message. The ensembles are the best guidance to use for trends beyond day 5 because at that point the OPs have little skill.

[wxman57]

European deterministic and ensembles say no freeze in Houston for 10 days, GFS says no freeze for 16 days. Fine with me.

I would be very, VERY surprised if you could make this same statement in about five days.

I'll get back to you on that next Friday...

[hriverajr]

The latest runs still show the brunt of the cold air going east.

[TheProfessor]

The latest runs still show the brunt of the cold air going east.

I don't care where the brunt of the cold goes, I just need it to be 28 degrees with heavy snow falling.

[orangeblood]

The latest runs still show the brunt of the cold air going east.

The latest GFS ensembles have temps 10-20 deg F below normal across Texas from Dec. 30th through Jan. 7th with cold air reloading across southern Canada at the end of the forecast period. Latest Long range CFSv2 is showing 6-10 deg F below normal for the entire month of January.

[BigB0882]

The latest runs still show the brunt of the cold air going east.

The latest GFS ensembles have temps 10-20 deg F below normal across Texas from Dec. 30th through Jan. 7th with cold air reloading across southern Canada at the end of the forecast period. Latest Long range CFSv2 is showing 6-10 deg F below normal for the entire month of January.

Is that cold making it to Louisiana this time or is the ridge blocking any eastward movement?

[dhweather]

The latest runs still show the brunt of the cold air going east.

Still looks that way with the 00Z GFS & ECMWF runs, we'll see what the 12Z has to say, but I expect the same. The most disappointing thing is both are dry. At least some rain would be really nice.

[cycloneye]

Here is a cold tweet by JB.

Joe Bastardi
‏@BigJoeBastardi
1h
Dreadful cold pattern is coming back, and normals are lower with it. US plains east to shiver well into Jan, if not all month.Looks like 94

[wxman57]

Looks pretty cold to me here in Houston. Low in the mid 30s this morning with a high only near 50. Very slow warming trend up to New Year's Eve then more cold. 00Z GFS has us near freezing on New Year's Eve. BRRR! Nothing even close to 80 degrees for the next 2 weeks. Euro is similar, but I see 60s across east TX by New Year's Day. The very cold air JB is speaking of is for him in PA, not us in TX.

[hriverajr]

Yep for JB for the most part,the western part of the country does not exist.

[dhweather]

Yes, Joe B is hyping again, and somewhat misleading. US Plains and East covers North Dakota to Texas, Maine to Florida.

Hey Joe, I'll save you a lot of trouble. Climatology tells us it's going to cold in Northern states in the winter. Just like its going to be hot in Southern states in the summer.

[dhweather]

Yep for JB for the most part,the western part of the country does not exist.

Ha, sad but true. He's basically the center of his own little universe.

[Portastorm]

Heh, the 12z GFS run ought to get tongues wagging around here.

Hint: You North Texans should focus on the period beginning at 216 hours. Enjoy.

[dhweather]

Great read here:

http://www.gensiniwx.com/2013/12/the-tr ... t.html?m=1