Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

GFS is still pretty unimpressed. Canadian is a little positive, and pretty cold. Euro yet to run.

[TexasF6]

Anyone else notice the PDS TOR sigs on some of the models with this storm coming through today? I know tomorrow is enhanced, but we have a robust 5% chance in our area today....And Happy New Years everyone!!!

[Portastorm]

Anyone else notice the PDS TOR sigs on some of the models with this storm coming through today? I know tomorrow is enhanced, but we have a robust 5% chance in our area today....And Happy New Years everyone!!!

It will be interesting to watch the development late tonight out in west Texas and to see if the higher-based storms morph into something more severe with bases closer to the boundary layer. As it is, we expect a hail threat and maybe some isolated straight-line wind threat here in the general Austin area.

[Brent]

Euro much different than the GFS it appears, the energy is diving through the Rockies on Thursday

DFW upper 40s Wednesday again and still above freezing Thursday morning

More reasonable 40s on Thursday this run

Colder Thursday Night but dry so far

Looks like just dry and cold

[ronyan]

The EPO forecast for Jan 3 is now -420, how many SDs below normal is it if it were to reach that value? I believe we're now ~ -200 EPO. Really I'm asking what is the standard deviation value. I have the full historical data set but it seems a bit unwieldy for copying into excel.

I think wxman laid it out well on a previous page, the source region for the cold is usually the biggest factor for how cold it gets downstream. Snow pack also quite important between the source and destination.

[Ntxw]

The EPO forecast for Jan 3 is now -420, how many SDs below normal is it if it were to reach that value? I believe we're now ~ -200 EPO. Really I'm asking what is the standard deviation value. I have the full historical data set but it seems a bit unwieldy for copying into excel.

I think wxman laid it out well on a previous page, the source region for the cold is usually the biggest factor for how cold it gets downstream. Snow pack also quite important between the source and destination.

I've always been under the assumption that the value is pretty much the standard deviations because the reading is basically the anomaly against the mean

-420 if it happens would be a pretty astounding value

[ronyan]

Well there must be some conversion factor between the value and the SD at least. It can't be 420 SDs (maybe 4.2?). I may do some more digging on that.

[Ntxw]

Well there must be some conversion factor between the value and the SD at least. It can't be 420 SDs. I may do some more digging on that.

4SD's below normal

[ronyan]

Thanks Ntxw, I wasn't sure how the values from ESRL translated. 4 SDs would be quite exceptional.

[davidiowx]

What's the Euro sayin?

[Ntxw]

What's the Euro sayin?

Cold later this week, perhaps similar to what we saw in December but mostly dry for the run. Warm up after, and towards the end of the run cross polar flow in place really cold air in Western Canada.

[orangeblood]

Interesting reversal on the 12Z Euro ENS package, over half of its members now showing frozen precip for North Texas later this week (mean of 0.5 inch snow @ DFW)...almost doubled from the previous run. Tonight's package should be the fork in the road b/w storm or no storm

[hriverajr]

Dead in here eh... :/

[bevolon]

i thought the site was froze up!

[Brent]

I want the winter storm back... I had enough cold and dry 2 weeks ago

[Ntxw]

I remember posting some days ago back that a pattern like this the risk is everything may slide east. Over the past several days that's what the models have trended to. That dip in the NAO couldn't have had worse timing.

[Brent]

We've just had no luck lately I mean even the cold in December we still finished warmer than normal and we can't get any moisture when it is cold. I really hope climo wins out and the best of winter is ahead but I'm just not terribly optimistic after what December was supposed to be

[Ntxw]

We've just had no luck lately I mean even the cold in December we still finished warmer than normal and we can't get any moisture when it is cold. I really hope climo wins out and the best of winter is ahead but I'm just not terribly optimistic after what December was supposed to be

What really did December in was the overnight lows the last week or so. Several times the + anomalies skyrocketed because the lows were warmer than what the average high was supposed to be. While the 80s were painful, it was the lows that really did the month in. 70s and near 80s gets you about 10-15F above normal maybe 20. But 50s for lows gets you to 30 above normal.

As the theme for some years now, the overnight lows for DFW continues to warm.

[bubba hotep]

Interesting reversal on the 12Z Euro ENS package, over half of its members now showing frozen precip for North Texas later this week (mean of 0.5 inch snow @ DFW)...almost doubled from the previous run. Tonight's package should be the fork in the road b/w storm or no storm

This jumped out at me when looking over things this evening, was it a blip or will we see a trend in the 00z guidance?

[bubba hotep]

Show is getting started out West: