Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Ghost0321
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2641 Postby Ghost0321 » Wed Dec 21, 2022 5:57 pm

Would a winter weather advisory be out of the question for DFW?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2642 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Dec 21, 2022 6:02 pm

Ghost0321 wrote:Would a winter weather advisory be out of the question for DFW?

Likely a decision that is made once event is underway. So hard to know ahead of time if there will be enough to affect things. I did see SHV mentioned the possibility.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2643 Postby TropicalTundra » Wed Dec 21, 2022 6:03 pm

On the temp map the front looks to be entering NW Kansas. 25-30 mph winds on the backside and temps dropping from mid 30's to almost 0 in minutes
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2644 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Dec 21, 2022 6:13 pm

Fascinating to see all these upstream station reports with the dramatic temp drops. Amazing actually. Can't wait to witness ours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2645 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Dec 21, 2022 6:42 pm

Just took a look at the NAM soundings for DFW and I think y'all might see some snow grains tomorrow. You're cold enough and saturated from 850 to 925mb to make ice crystals. We saw something similar here this morning that gave us a dusting of snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2646 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Dec 21, 2022 6:47 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Just took a look at the NAM soundings for DFW and I think y'all might see some snow grains tomorrow. You're cold enough and saturated from 850 to 925mb to make ice crystals. We saw something similar here this morning that gave us a dusting of snow.



There are NAM hints at HGX. False echos, maybe? I thought this front suppresses almost anything in its path.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2647 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 21, 2022 6:54 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Just took a look at the NAM soundings for DFW and I think y'all might see some snow grains tomorrow. You're cold enough and saturated from 850 to 925mb to make ice crystals. We saw something similar here this morning that gave us a dusting of snow.



There are NAM hints at HGX. False echos, maybe? I thought this front suppresses almost anything in its path.


Eventually it will but initially as the front comes through it will lift the warm air ahead up. Rising air, we know what that does sometimes :lol:.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2648 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:00 pm

Denver 42F -> 5F
Limon 43 -> 10F

Front is well south of Goodland and halfway there to Garden City and Dodge City. Late evening and night time hours Oklahoma. Temps dropping so fast the hour maps most sites have can't keep up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2649 Postby Gotwood » Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:04 pm

Ntxw wrote:Denver 42F -> 5F
Limon 43 -> 10F

Front is well south of Goodland and halfway there to Garden City and Dodge City. Late evening and night time hours Oklahoma. Temps dropping so fast the hour maps most sites have can't keep up.

Is it moving faster than anticipated?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2650 Postby H2O_PROVIDER » Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:12 pm

Hey everyone...really enjoy all of the outstanding knowledge and analysis on this forum. As a retired water systems operator, these are the kind of weather events that put the most stress on a water plant.
Having to pull in dozens of automatic flushers from the field, filling all storage tanks to capacity and maintaining sufficient pressure levels for an extended period is daunting. Good luck to all of the utility companies
that will be dealing with this particular event.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2651 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:13 pm

Gotwood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Denver 42F -> 5F
Limon 43 -> 10F

Front is well south of Goodland and halfway there to Garden City and Dodge City. Late evening and night time hours Oklahoma. Temps dropping so fast the hour maps most sites have can't keep up.

Is it moving faster than anticipated?


A little bit nothing drastic yet that I would to consider a bust. At least the latest guidance. Now ask about GFS/Euro from three to four days ago, oh yeah faster.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2652 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:32 pm

It looks like that Hays, KS just got the cold front.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2653 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:45 pm

Most CAMs/RAP/NAM didn't have the front push through till 7 or 8z (1 to 2 AM) so if it clears before then it's ahead of schedule. Something for y'all to watch. I'll be heading to bed pretty soon since I have an early shift.

If we can get that front through before 9 here we have a shot at record low maximum temperatures tomorrow which is -2. Could be close
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2654 Postby Cerlin » Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:20 pm

Front at its current pace is about 2 hours ahead of the 18z HRRR and a little faster than even the 0z HRRR. This is not surprising but it’s undetermined what effects this would have, as the 0z HRRR is still rolling.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2655 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:01 pm

It looks like that the Blue Norther Front is already almost to Oklahoma, it's a shame that I can't film it since it comes in at night!
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2656 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:37 pm

I can see the cold front on Dodge City, KS Radar. It's about to scream through the city.

Decided to put out the loop of it, would like to know how fast it's moving, but I know it's FAST for frontal standards!

Image
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/KDDC_loop.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2657 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:49 pm

The front is on my doorstep now. Gonna end up being a good 3 to 5 hours early. We may have a shot at record low highs here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2658 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:10 pm

We'll see where the front is when I head to the gym @530am :ggreen: :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2659 Postby Quixotic » Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:29 pm

Actually kinda disappointed the front is going to be early. Was going to set up with my camera pointed to the north with a time lapse and thermometer. Cest La vie and all that. Been a while with a true blue norther…..
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2660 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:31 pm

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