Texas Winter 2010-2011

[wxman57]

Oh, and here's one for Portastorm. Too bad the 6Z doesn't predict the lows and highs:

[Tireman4]

Not buying yet.....Give it a week....LOL or more...

[wxman57]

Not buying yet.....Give it a week....LOL or more...

Come on! You doubt the GFS 12-day forecast? Unfortunately, I do agree with Bastardi that the evolving pattern is quite similar to the pattern that produced the March 1993 Storm of the Century.

[srainhoutx]

Here is an image of the 12Z GFS from last Tuesday I saved. Look familiar?

[Tireman4]

I am learning to be a winter weather curmudgeon like you Wxman57. I aint gonna believe it until it is hitting the ground.

[wxman57]

I am learning to be a winter weather curmudgeon like you Wxman57. I aint gonna believe it until it is hitting the ground.

Normally, I'd just laugh at a GFS run like that. But consider this - before the first "Arctic Outbreak" a few weeks ago, the temps in NW and north-central Canada were just BARELY below zero in spots. Now, in the same region, I see widespread -35 to -52F up there. That's COLD and it's quite a big area of cold. So I'm not laughing too hard at the 6Z GFS run now...

[orangeblood]

Not buying yet.....Give it a week....LOL or more...

Come on! You doubt the GFS 12-day forecast? Unfortunately, I do agree with Bastardi that the evolving pattern is quite similar to the pattern that produced the March 1993 Storm of the Century.

The GFS and it's ensembles appear to be catching on to something with the evolution of this pattern. It even appears to have some support from the European and Canadian around days 8-10 - just look at the massive height rises and highs building across Northwest-Central Canada. How are we going to dislodge the cold air with the AO forecasted to turn positive? I would assume from the +PNA that continues to overwhelm the pattern.

[Portastorm]

Actually, what Wxman57 isn't telling you guys is that I drew up that 6z GFS run. Cracked the code and spun up a historic winter storm for Texas.

More seriously, I don't know if any of us can trust a computer model run beyond 72 hours at this point. The runs seem so volatile and struggling with the larger-scale signals. But it remains quite hard for me to believe that we won't see some kind of major winter storm here in Texas in the next few weeks given those larger-scale signals and the severity of the cold to our north.

[Tireman4]

I am learning to be a winter weather curmudgeon like you Wxman57. I aint gonna believe it until it is hitting the ground.

Normally, I'd just laugh at a GFS run like that. But consider this - before the first "Arctic Outbreak" a few weeks ago, the temps in NW and north-central Canada were just BARELY below zero in spots. Now, in the same region, I see widespread -35 to -52F up there. That's COLD and it's quite a big area of cold. So I'm not laughing too hard at the 6Z GFS run now...

Wait. Wait. Don't tell me. ( That sounds like a show). You are starting to believe the GFS runs that far out. (I know, the source region)Oh my stars. You must have had too much coffee today. LOL. As long as I have known you (virtually), I have only seen you commit (the last snow event for Houston) when the event was 2-3 days out. Now, Ike, if I remember right, you had a gut feeling early. I know many things can change, but wow. You have made me take notice a teeny weenie bit.

[srainhoutx]

I am learning to be a winter weather curmudgeon like you Wxman57. I aint gonna believe it until it is hitting the ground.

Normally, I'd just laugh at a GFS run like that. But consider this - before the first "Arctic Outbreak" a few weeks ago, the temps in NW and north-central Canada were just BARELY below zero in spots. Now, in the same region, I see widespread -35 to -52F up there. That's COLD and it's quite a big area of cold. So I'm not laughing too hard at the 6Z GFS run now...

I will add if you look at the 240 hour Canadian (00Z) and the Euro, there is some agreement that a sizeable surge of that cold air will be heading S at the end of the runs for both of them as well. That adds some credence from other guidance beyond what the GFS is suggesting. We will see.

[Tireman4]

Actually, what Wxman57 isn't telling you guys is that I drew up that 6z GFS run. Cracked the code and spun up a historic winter storm for Texas.

Thank goodness. I know something was out of kilter.

The proceeding message was brought to you by the Portastorm Weather Center. Our cracked ...oops..crack team of meteorologists are here for you 24/7 (Well, we do not do windows in winter). Our motto, you want snow, you got it.

[Portastorm]

Actually, what Wxman57 isn't telling you guys is that I drew up that 6z GFS run. Cracked the code and spun up a historic winter storm for Texas.

Thank goodness. I know something was out of kilter.

The proceeding message was brought to you by the Portastorm Weather Center. Our cracked ...oops..crack team of meteorologists are here for you 24/7 (Well, we do not do windows in winter). Our motto, you want snow, you got it.

Tireman, you're hired! You are the new Marketing Director for the Portastorm Weather Center. Good work!!

[wxman57]

Wait. Wait. Don't tell me. ( That sounds like a show). You are starting to believe the GFS runs that far out. (I know, the source region)Oh my stars. You must have had too much coffee today. LOL. As long as I have known you (virtually), I have only seen you commit (the last snow event for Houston) when the event was 2-3 days out. Now, Ike, if I remember right, you had a gut feeling early. I know many things can change, but wow. You have made me take notice a teeny weenie bit.

Whenever I see such model runs, I always say "show me the cold air" (in Canada). Well, I can see the cold air there. It's quite cold and quite widespread. The projected upper-level flow (GFS/Euro/CMC) would support a southward transport of this cold air. So I wouldn't discount a long-range model run indicating that cold air reaching Texas. I'm not ready to actually forecast such cold (as in more likely than not happening), but I am close to the point of starting to mention it to our clients.

[djmikey]

Snow flurries being reported in the Beaumont, Tx area!

http://www.kfdm.com/articles/flurries-4 ... heast.html

[wxman57]

Snow flurries being reported in the Beaumont, Tx area!

http://www.kfdm.com/articles/flurries-4 ... heast.html

RUC sounding indicates a very thin layer of stratus clouds in sub-freezing air over Beaumont. There's very little moisture up there, so any snowflakes that form should be quite small.

[Cuda17]

Wait. Wait. Don't tell me. ( That sounds like a show). You are starting to believe the GFS runs that far out. (I know, the source region)Oh my stars. You must have had too much coffee today. LOL. As long as I have known you (virtually), I have only seen you commit (the last snow event for Houston) when the event was 2-3 days out. Now, Ike, if I remember right, you had a gut feeling early. I know many things can change, but wow. You have made me take notice a teeny weenie bit.

Whenever I see such model runs, I always say "show me the cold air" (in Canada). Well, I can see the cold air there. It's quite cold and quite widespread. The projected upper-level flow (GFS/Euro/CMC) would support a southward transport of this cold air. So I wouldn't discount a long-range model run indicating that cold air reaching Texas. I'm not ready to actually forecast such cold (as in more likely than not happening), but I am close to the point of starting to mention it to our clients.

Can you please let us know when you inform your clients... I believe that we will all pay closer attention when that happens since you seem to be the more "conservative" of the pro-mets

[wxman57]

Can you please let us know when you inform your clients... I believe that we will all pay closer attention when that happens since you seem to be the more "conservative" of the pro-mets

The event would have to be supported by at least the Euro or the Canadian over the coming week for us to begin contacting clients. I suspect future GFS runs will be quite a bit warmer (at least I hope so!).

[northtxboy]

Hello everyone,,,I had a friend send me this link and after watching it it scared the crap out of me. I would like everyones take on this,,I dont know rather to beleave it or not,,,they say the North Atlantic current is dead and thats why we have been having these crazy weather paterns all over the world. its kind of long about 20 mins. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUOLXiK9xxE

[southerngale]

Can you please let us know when you inform your clients... I believe that we will all pay closer attention when that happens since you seem to be the more "conservative" of the pro-mets

The event would have to be supported by at least the Euro or the Canadian over the coming week for us to begin contacting clients. I suspect future GFS runs will be quite a bit warmer (at least I hope so!).

You think future runs will warm up, but you're not discounting it because of how cold the source region is, if I'm following you correctly? You've certainly made me take notice this morning. Interesting stuff. I had been eyeing all the flip-flops in my closet, wondering when it was going to warm up enough to wear them. lol Guess I'll be sporting my boots for a while yet.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

wow, very interesting indeed. Im not going to bite yet though, but if Mr Bastardi is correct we may be onto something.

The 12z from Tuesday is screaming '934 superstorm too. Lol, doubt it but we will see.

On the 360 before our big arctic front, the GFS showed a 1060 MB high in canada and i thought that was laughable too