Texas Winter 2012-2013

[TeamPlayersBlue]

After an SSW event, does that pretty much mean the end of winter for us? In Feb. 2011, it certainly was the last hurrah for us here in Texas. We had plenty of winter that year though.

[Ntxw]

[b]Not looking at the Vortex....the split PV is forecast to weaken drastically in the 7-10 day range even over North America. What I'm looking at are the temperature anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere in the next 2 weeks. Just look at the extreme cold over Eurasia in the 10-15 day range compared to North America. These anomalies are more than likely a by product of the SSW - where the cold air developed and the flow out of the Arctic

I see what you're saying. Lets hope it's wrong, still very long range. The ECMWF and ensembles as well do show cold anomalies over north-central Asia, but I don't believe that is SSW PV resulted cold. Their extreme outbreaks has to involve a Caspian Sea vortex much like our HB vortex. The big high on all the runs is still in the Arctic so there isn't truly arctic air in the picture yet for anybody, mostly continent-brewed

[DonWrk]

Not the news I was expecting to see this morning.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Still no rain north of Wichita Falls, just light drizzle

[Ntxw]

Not the news I was expecting to see this morning.

Don't get too down, we'll see them change many more times. At least for the next week+ wxman57 will remain in discontent state

[orangeblood]

After an SSW event, does that pretty much mean the end of winter for us? In Feb. 2011, it certainly was the last hurrah for us here in Texas. We had plenty of winter that year though.

Not necessarily, we're just now getting into the heart of winter. There's plenty of time for the synoptic pattern to become more favorable for the US and the MJO plays a big part in that. Look, those cold anomalies over Eurasia are about as extreme as you can get....if the MJO can get back into the more favorable phases of 8-1-2 and the Upper Level pattern over Eurasia opens the flood gates into North America than we can starting talking extreme cold again. But the trend has not be good over the past few days for what we thought was going to be an extremely cold latter half of January. It's still going to be cold relative to averages but not to the extreme that the models were trending towards last week. The silver lining is that, if you like cold/wet/possible snow as opposed to extreme cold/dry, than this pattern might be more favorable because the southern jet looks like it's becoming more of a factor now.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Portastorm]

About ready to head to lunch and meet up with the venerable Wxman57. Perhaps if we don't see our shadow that means 12 weeks more of winter?!

I'll do what I can to find out if he has any thoughts on the days/weeks ahead.

[gpsnowman]

About ready to head to lunch and meet up with the venerable Wxman57. Perhaps if we don't see our shadow that means 12 weeks more of winter?!

I'll do what I can to find out if he has any thoughts on the days/weeks ahead.

Be on high alert, Portastorm. This might be an attempt to try to convert you to the Dark(warm) Side. Be very cautious and be strong!!!!!

[PTrackerLA]

So much for the arctic blast down south. I don't even see a freeze on the horizon over the next 16 days on the 12z GFS. With all this rain we are in for a big time mosquito problem if we don't have a hard freeze .

[Ntxw]

Since this is the mood today, I'll go ahead and do it to lower the expectations. Winter Cancel

[ndale]

Just checked my rain gauge since this all began and have 3.5 inches and still raining. Nice.

[Comanche]

Just checked my rain gauge since this all began and have 3.5 inches and still raining. Nice.

Go set up a beach chair on the bank of Lake Travis, hopefully you will experience the 'tide' coming in.

[gboudx]

Since this is the mood today, I'll go ahead and do it to lower the expectations. Winter Cancel

[Ntxw]

Since this is the mood today, I'll go ahead and do it to lower the expectations. Winter Cancel

I knew it was coming, look what I said late December

JanuaryMajority of the analogs suggest a cool to cold January. 2002, 2004, 2010, and 2011 are the best fits regarding the current blocking regime. There is a risk that the very coldest air may slide just to the east of Texas in that the PNA is too positive anchoring in the rockies, but regardless it will be a stormy pattern. The AO should relax as said in previous posts which gives way to a more seasonably warm period after the first week (again storminess may abate any further warming). A few winter events may threaten Texas especially early and late in the month.

^ Yes like I said for the January thoughts, after the first week a relaxation period. Warm mongerers will rejoice and announce winter's 2 week visit dead and cancel while the pessimism will return.

[Comanche]

Shirley you can't be serious...

[cycloneye]

Since this is the mood today, I'll go ahead and do it to lower the expectations. Winter Cancel

If that statement is true,you have to put a blame not to the AO,NAO,PNA,PDO,EPO but to the state of ENSO that presently is almost at La Nina status at -0.3C. Sure the other factors are important but if El Nino would be right now present,the Texas winter for sure would be different.

[Ntxw]

Since this is the mood today, I'll go ahead and do it to lower the expectations. Winter Cancel

If that statement is true,you have to put a blame not to the AO,NAO,PNA,PDO,EPO but to the state of ENSO that presently is almost at La Nina status at [b]-0.3C

I was only kidding Cycloneye! It has been a great winter, for most of us already. Since the solstice it has been cold (look at map below) There are still a few to have yet experience wintry weather but most everyone else has. It's on par with some of the best analog years for cold and we're not even a month into it yet, with some modest drought relief thus far

[iorange55]

Winter is far from over...it has only just begun. Keep your coats by the door!

[dhweather]

I'm at 2.22 thus far, which is nice. I hope for another 2.22 before this event is over, but I don't see it happening.

[cycloneye]

Since this is the mood today, I'll go ahead and do it to lower the expectations. Winter Cancel

If that statement is true,you have to put a blame not to the AO,NAO,PNA,PDO,EPO but to the state of ENSO that presently is almost at La Nina status at [b]-0.3C

I was only kidding Cycloneye! It has been a great winter, for most of us already. Since the solstice it has been cold (look at map below) There are still a few to have yet experience wintry weather but most everyone else has. It's on par with some of the best analog years for cold and we're not even a month into it yet, with some modest drought relief thus far

http://i50.tinypic.com/28grxqb.gif

Oh ok Yes,that state has been thru a good winter but I insist it would have been better if El Nino was present.