Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

Can someone explain the "UK Superbomb" that occurred yesterday/today? What's so significant about it, and will it have any impact on the lower 48? Is it a "trend is our friend" situation or just some historical anomaly? TIA

It's a deep low center across the Atlantic affecting England and western Europe. No direct impact across the U.S.

I think I read somewhere that it means a strong cold-core upper low will move over Houston in two weeks with sleet and snow. But then again, one can never trust what one reads on the Internet.

[Tammie]

Awwww. THANKS Porta!!!! That's the type of Grey Goose hyperbole I was wanting to hear!!!

[wxman57]

Can someone explain the "UK Superbomb" that occurred yesterday/today? What's so significant about it, and will it have any impact on the lower 48? Is it a "trend is our friend" situation or just some historical anomaly? TIA

It's a deep low center across the Atlantic affecting England and western Europe. No direct impact across the U.S.

I think I read somewhere that it means a strong cold-core upper low will move over Houston in two weeks with sleet and snow. But then again, one can never trust what one reads on the Internet.

Yeah, it could mean that... but probably not.

[dhweather]

Can someone explain the "UK Superbomb" that occurred yesterday/today? What's so significant about it, and will it have any impact on the lower 48? Is it a "trend is our friend" situation or just some historical anomaly? TIA

In general terms, bombing is when an area of low pressure, usually associated with a cyclone, intensifies rapidly and it's barometric pressure drops rapidly, or bombs.

That system was rather strong, but I don't know that it was a record breaker or anything of that nature.

[Portastorm]

Can someone explain the "UK Superbomb" that occurred yesterday/today? What's so significant about it, and will it have any impact on the lower 48? Is it a "trend is our friend" situation or just some historical anomaly? TIA

In general terms, bombing is when an area of low pressure, usually associated with a cyclone, intensifies rapidly and it's barometric pressure drops rapidly, or bombs.

That system was rather strong, but I don't know that it was a record breaker or anything of that nature.

Tammie, to answer your question based on what wxman57 shared and what I just confirmed with pro met Larry Cosgrove ... the "UK Superbomb" storm will not have a direct impact on our weather. Indirectly, storms of this magnitude can sometimes have the ability to help change weather patterns. It is possible that this storm will push the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index towards neutral or even negative. If the NAO is negative, it usually means a cold and large trough covers part of the Eastern CONUS. The eventual location of such a trough could play a role in helping bring down cold Canadian/Arctic air into Texas ... OR ... if the trough is to our east it would mean more seasonal and perhaps even warmer-than-seasonal temps for Texas. We shall see.

[Tammie]

Can someone explain the "UK Superbomb" that occurred yesterday/today? What's so significant about it, and will it have any impact on the lower 48? Is it a "trend is our friend" situation or just some historical anomaly? TIA

In general terms, bombing is when an area of low pressure, usually associated with a cyclone, intensifies rapidly and it's barometric pressure drops rapidly, or bombs.

That system was rather strong, but I don't know that it was a record breaker or anything of that nature.

Tammie, to answer your question based on what wxman57 shared and what I just confirmed with pro met Larry Cosgrove ... the "UK Superbomb" storm will not have a direct impact on our weather. Indirectly, storms of this magnitude can sometimes have the ability to help change weather patterns. It is possible that this storm will push the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index towards neutral or even negative. If the NAO is negative, it usually means a cold and large trough covers part of the Eastern CONUS. The eventual location of such a trough could play a role in helping bring down cold Canadian/Arctic air into Texas ... OR ... if the trough is to our east it would mean more seasonal and perhaps even warmer-than-seasonal temps for Texas. We shall see.

Wow! Thanks Porta! Awesome info! Thanks for going the extra mile to help us understand it!

[wxman57]

Tammie, to answer your question based on what wxman57 shared and what I just confirmed with pro met Larry Cosgrove ... the "UK Superbomb" storm will not have a direct impact on our weather. Indirectly, storms of this magnitude can sometimes have the ability to help change weather patterns. It is possible that this storm will push the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index towards neutral or even negative. If the NAO is negative, it usually means a cold and large trough covers part of the Eastern CONUS. The eventual location of such a trough could play a role in helping bring down cold Canadian/Arctic air into Texas ... OR ... if the trough is to our east it would mean more seasonal and perhaps even warmer-than-seasonal temps for Texas. We shall see.

That's precisely the impact I'm expecting.

[Portastorm]

At this point wxman57, I would have to agree with you. Everything I'm seeing on both the operational and ensemble computer models from the Euro and GFS suggest that the eastern US will experience some harsh "winter" in the next two weeks but we here in Texas will not. Looks like the developing positive PNA pattern will induce high pressure well enough into the western US to create a mild flow pattern for us, keeping much of the colder/stormier weather to our northeast.

Sorry winter fans, but I gotta try and keep it "real."

[weatherguy425]

But, But.....


I'm just hoping such a pattern would be transient. Keyword = hoping.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Winter cancel?

[srainhoutx]

Winter cancel?

More like too much uncertainty beyond the 5-7 day period with exactly how the various deterministic and even the ensembles handle the 500mb low off of California that is expect next week. High pressure looks very much in control into the weekend and early next week with comfortable temperature and dry.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1044 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2013

VALID 12Z FRI DEC 27 2013 - 12Z TUE DEC 31 2013


AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS DECEMBER THUS FAR, THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN STABLE RUN TO RUN OVER THE PAST FEW DATA
CYCLES, NOR HAVE THE SOLUTIONS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS
BEEN WELL CORRELATED. RATHER, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE AFFORDED THE
RIGOR AND CONTINUITY NEEDED FOR FORECASTS AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. FOR
THE CURRENT FORECAST, PREFERRED THE MOST RECENT ECENS MEAN OVER
THE GEFS MEAN MAINLY BECAUSE THE GEFS HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN TRYING
TO SEND ENERGY WHOLESALE THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE--TOO
MUCH AND TOO SOON. EXPECT THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TO CONTINUE TO BE
A NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE, WITH CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS BLEEDING
OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM. MOST OF THE ARCTIC AIR AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES, WITH THE SOUTHWEST STILL HIGH AND DRY WITH THE
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES SPLIT AROUND THAT REGION.


CISCO

[TheProfessor]

NO no no see this is good. At this point with the last rain event the models started trending toward a winter event for Texas but they decided change their mind about a week out. Now their saying rain and no cold weather, so maybe a week out they will start forecasting a major winter storm event for Texas, including the Texas Triangle(Dallas,San Antonio, and Houston).

[perk]

I'm gonna go off topic to wish all the members of this forum and their families a safe,happy,and blessed Christmas.

[gboudx]

When people start digging at wxman57, he summons whatever voodoo powers he's developed over the years to get back at them. He's able to put a curse on the cold-generating atmospheric entities. I'm gonna have to travel to one of the dark places on 4th Street in Harvey, La to find an anti-curse. It's risky but I'm willing to try it for my cold-weather loving friends.

[dhweather]

It's still way too early to tell, let's get a few more consistent model runs before we punt. We know this, Christmas Day will start off chilly and dry, and Santa will have made lots of girls and boys happy!!

And I hope each and every one of you have a Merry Christmas!!

[vbhoutex]

When people start digging at wxman57, he summons whatever voodoo powers he's developed over the years to get back at them. He's able to put a curse on the cold-generating atmospheric entities. I'm gonna have to travel to one of the dark places on 4th Street in Harvey, La to find an anti-curse. It's risky but I'm willing to try it for my cold-weather loving friends.

I'm glad someone is willing to "go to bat" for the cold weather lovers(at least for part of the year)!!!
Past that I do find the patterns being predicted interesting. As always we must wait till we get closer to any event to "forecast" with any certainty. As it stands now we have already had more Winter in SE TX than we had all last Winter.
MERRY CHRISTMAS STORM2K!!

[texas1836]

I'm gonna go off topic to wish all the members of this forum and their families a safe,happy,and blessed Christmas.

Merry Christmas to you too and everyone one on this Forum!!!!! I still want 24" of snow is McKinney.

[MGC]

Well you know, 57 has a hurricane voodoo doll.....perhaps he has a winter one too. Merry Christmas!......MGC

[TheProfessor]

I'm gonna go off topic to wish all the members of this forum and their families a safe,happy,and blessed Christmas.

Merry Christmas to you too and everyone one on this Forum!!!!! I still want 24" of snow is McKinney.

Why only 24"? 36" would be a lot more fun.

[texas1836]

I'm gonna go off topic to wish all the members of this forum and their families a safe,happy,and blessed Christmas.

Merry Christmas to you too and everyone one on this Forum!!!!! I still want 24" of snow is McKinney.

Why only 24"? 36" would be a lot more fun.

That would be nice too, as long as the roof didn't cave in. I hope after the 1st of the year we'll see some promise of snow, but, from what I'm reading it's looking like a normal Texas Winter (except for December).