Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ralph's Weather]

Down to 22 and DP is 5.

[TheProfessor]

So it is likely folks North of I-20 are going to miss out on Friday, but We might have problems here on Saturday night and Sunday, NWS has a 40% chance of freezing rain, Weather channel actually has us getting freezing rain throughout Sunday.

[KeriCarter]

I got this in an email from our electric company. Does anyone think this will hold true for us here in Texarkana? From what I am reading here and other places, it doesn't seem likely, but I am not an expert. Currently here it is:
20 Degrees
Humidity 54%
Wind Speed NE 8 mph
Barometer 30.81 in (1043.5 mb)
Dewpoint 7°F (-14°C)
Wind Chill 11°F (-12°C)

And as a side note, I would love to become a supporting member but do not want a paypal account. Is there another way?
Thanks, Keri

[vbhoutex]

The cold is in place and the reinforcing cold surge is almost a given. The biggest question will be the timing and track of the short waves expected over the weekend that would provide the moisture necessary for the icing to occur. IMO you have a good chance of the icing in your area verifying.

[txprog]

Pay attention to wind chill warnings when and if they are issued!

I am a hearty soul, love the cold, and will take my daily exercise - hard 3-5 mile walk - no matter how cold. Hat, scarf, thermal gloves, sweatshirt and light jacket keep me warm. Was going to take tonight off, but ventured from my office for a mile or so jaunt in just a sweat shirt. 25 degrees with a stiff north wind of about 20 MPH. After a half mile or so my hands were getting real cold so it was time to shut it down. By the time I got to my car I could barely feel or use my hands. And they hurt real bad. I was a bit worried. Took about fifteen minutes of holding them in front of the hot air blowing in my car to warm them up and longer for them to return to normal.

All is well but I learned a serious lesson tonight. Do not mess with the cold when it means business!

[TheProfessor]

A quarter- half inch of Ice would cause a lot of problems in the Eastern half of DFW Especially with The colleges and their fans headed into town. Though NWS has it occurring more at night into Sunday morning then the afternoon here.

[KeriCarter]

The cold is in place and the reinforcing cold surge is almost a given. The biggest question will be the timing and track of the short waves expected over the weekend that would provide the moisture necessary for the icing to occur. IMO you have a good chance of the icing in your area verifying.

Thank you. The ice storm of 2000 is still very fresh in my mind and while it was a great time for making memories with our family, there were a lot of people that fared much worse. Being without electricity for 2 weeks was an inconvenience, especially with small kiddos and livestock to care for, but man we had fun. I just wish it didn't have to come with loss of life and property risks.

[TheProfessor]

Yeah Ice storms can be both fun and bad, in 2003 the Metroplex got a a good one me and my sister had tons of fun. Last year's ice storm was not fun at all, though I did have some neighbors ski down are street, which is a big hill.

[KeriCarter]

:uarrow: Yeah Ice storms can be both fun and bad, in 2003 the Metroplex got a a good one me and my sister had tons of fun. Last year's ice storm was not fun at all, though I did have some neighbors ski down are street, which is a big hill.

Skiing down the street sounds fun. We tend to hop on 4 wheelers and act quite silly. Our youngest is 1 and he is even picking up on our "chatter" and wants some snow. The 3 year old just wants to see the farm critters slipping and sliding around. I have to use the kiddos as my excuse for playing in it. It's worked for me for 20 years so far

I'm glad to be able to put a name to the Ouachita Mountains' shielding of our area from some of the cooler winter weather happenings. It's somethig I have noticed for years but couldn't explain. I wonder how that will play out this go around.

[JDawg512]

2:31 and my weather station reads 26° dew point 6° pressure is 30.27. Central south Austin..

[Brent]

From FWD, so many threats... none sound all that great. Although tbh they sound a little concerned about Saturday Night/Sunday:

AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CREEPS CLOSER
TONIGHT...WEAK LOWER-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS FOR VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF A WINTRY MIX SOUTH
OF I-20 TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASED CLOUD CANOPY WILL HOLD LOWS UP FRIDAY MORNING TO
BETWEEN 25-35 DEGREES. MODEL BUFKIT AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
WEAK ELEVATED WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND 750MB WITH DRIER AND COLD
AIR BELOW THE WARM NOSE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER
HANGING RIGHT ON THE 0 DEGREE C ISOTHERM THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE LIKELY FORM OF PRECIPITATION WILL
RANGE FROM VERY LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
I-20...TO VERY LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE THROUGH MIDDAY
FRIDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BY MIDDAY AND AFTER. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF
A MIXTURE OF A LIGHT COLD RAIN...SLEET OR EVEN SNOW GRAINS SOUTH
OF I-20 BY THE AFTERNOON. IMPACTS SHOULD BE VERY MINIMAL WITH ONLY
WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING EXPECTED IN THE ELEVATED AREA OF
DEFORMATION. ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS HIGHS WARM ABOVE FREEZING MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER
AND PUSHES THE ELEVATED DEFORMATION ZONE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WE
WILL BE ADVERTISING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ON VERY LIGHT SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...MOSTLY MINOR IMPACTS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING AND ANY
VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
RISE INTO THE 30S AND JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AS STRONGER LIFT AND
WAA BEGIN ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE IN THE FORM OF A LIGHT COLD RAIN...THOUGH FAR THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES WILL HOVER AROUND FREEZING MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO THE
LACK OF INSOLATION AND WILL KEEP CAUTIONARY WORDING OF SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT STRENGTHENS.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE FINALLY BEGINS LIFTING ACROSS
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS IT GETS KICKED
EASTWARD BY DEEPENING ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY PERIOD REMAINS VERY
TRICKY REGARDING A COLD RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN AS MANY AREAS
WILL BE HOVERING BETWEEN 29 AND 33 DEGREES. THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL
BE JUST BELOW FREEZING...THERE IS A CONCERN THAT LARGER DROP
DISTRIBUTION AND RATES MAY PROVIDE LATENT HEAT RELEASE TO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND ACTUALLY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE OR
MORE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME MENTION OF EITHER/OR A
COLD RAIN/FREEZING NORTHWEST OF A TEMPLE...TO HILLSBORO...TO
CANTON LINE WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 29 TO 31
DEGREES. WILL HOLD TO JUST A COLD RAIN SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE.
DEPENDING ON AFOREMENTIONED PROCESSES...WE MAY HAVE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT TO MODERATE IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. IT WILL BE VERY TOUCH N`GO
AND HINGE ON HOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACT TO THE INCREASING RAIN
RATES. FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE STILL WAVERING ON ALL THESE
FACTORS...WE WILL CONTINUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE
WINTER MIX POTENTIAL FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
MODERATE WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH ONLY A COLD RAIN EXPECTED FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND BEYOND. A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY A COLD RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER LIGHT
WINTRY MIX FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

[Ralph's Weather]

Down to 16 here. If last March was not that low then it has been a while since we have seen that.

[Tammie]

17 degrees, DP 3, pressure 1040.1MB here in Denton.

[kingwood_tx1999]

Just got this on my phone for southeast tx



Special Weather StatementSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 600 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-082130- HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS- WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER- HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA- GALVESTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON... MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON... CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE... COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS... CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS... EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD... PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL... HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON... PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG... EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN... ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD... GALVESTON 600 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015 ...WINTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING... THE APPROACH OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL INCREASE AREA RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND AT A TIME WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING WILL FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO LIVINGSTON LINE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF AN EDNA TO COLUMBUS TO CALDWELL TO LIVINGSTON LINE. MOST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE WARMER PARTS OF THE DAY /WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING/...SO MAIN IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR OVER ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. SOUTHEAST TEXAS RESIDENTS AND THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR WHO HAVE TRAVEL PLANS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION BY FOLLOWING LOCAL MEDIA...LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT: http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HGX ...OR BY FOLLOWING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. $$


So does this mean it's going to happen or is it a possibility??

[TexasF6]

Methinks it's high time for a Portastorm WX Center Press Conference! I love the ewx guys, but I dunno about them ignoring certain things....

[Portastorm]

Methinks it's high time for a Portastorm WX Center Press Conference! I love the ewx guys, but I dunno about them ignoring certain things....

Only got one quote early this morning from a PWC met who was hurriedly running into the PWC HQ. He said: "This one feels like one of those events where watches/warnings aren't issued until the sleet is falling."

PWC offices appear to be in lockdown this AM.

[SouthernMet]

Models are now showing the entire state of Texas above freezing by noon Saturday.

[Portastorm]

Models are now showing the entire state of Texas above freezing by noon Saturday.

That seems really tough to believe at this point. Speaking of temps, it is 21 degrees currently at the PWC with a dew point of 8.

[srainhoutx]

Models..schmodels....it's cold here in NW Harris County. Just dropped down to 26F when the wind totally relaxed.

[Tammie]

When do the real time models come into play to see exactly which way the moisture is going to head? Aren't we getting close to that time?