Texas Winter 2024-2025

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txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2661 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:25 am

CMC definitely makes West Texas the jackpot winner for snow.

Still going with a freezing rain solution across a good portion of the state. Again, one thing the models are still showing is the borderline scenario this appears to be shaping up to be despite a favorable setup for winter weather as you look at other aspects.

0z to 12z ICON shows the volatility though of where this can still go wild in terms of who gets what and how much. Fun to watch.
Last edited by txtwister78 on Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2662 Postby Fifty Rock » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:31 am

Ntxw wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:This is really going to come down to the evolution of the system (timing and location) in determining who gets what and how much but as forecast offices are outlining, the temp profiles coupled with other dynamic factors are going to really make this a short range watch type event as just a few degrees warmer/colder upstairs could make all the difference for a good chunk of the state.

I think West Texas primarily can be about as confident as all right now just due to the elevation factor alone. Ensembles are certainly becoming more locked in across N TX and so that lends weight to more confidence however I've also seen ensemble guidance miss horribly with these marginal events so it's going to be an adventure as it typically is down here with winter weather forecasting.


There are guidance such as the GFS that keep West Texas dry with little qpf, I'm not sure they can be all that confident either, temps alone is not enough.


Bite your tongue Sir. Leave my qpf alone out here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2663 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:32 am

Fifty Rock wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:This is really going to come down to the evolution of the system (timing and location) in determining who gets what and how much but as forecast offices are outlining, the temp profiles coupled with other dynamic factors are going to really make this a short range watch type event as just a few degrees warmer/colder upstairs could make all the difference for a good chunk of the state.

I think West Texas primarily can be about as confident as all right now just due to the elevation factor alone. Ensembles are certainly becoming more locked in across N TX and so that lends weight to more confidence however I've also seen ensemble guidance miss horribly with these marginal events so it's going to be an adventure as it typically is down here with winter weather forecasting.


There are guidance such as the GFS that keep West Texas dry with little qpf, I'm not sure they can be all that confident either, temps alone is not enough.


Bite your tongue Sir. Leave my qpf alone out here.


Aha I know, rooting for you all also. Everyone has reason to doubt in the different areas for failed modes, with your colder temp profiles you won't need much. We're all sitting better though than we were earlier this past week!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2664 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:36 am

snownado wrote:12z GFS is improved from its 06z run, with a extremely marginal but nice hit for DFW and northeastward.

Still not as good as the runs from yesterday morning though.

Yeah definitely an improvement over the previous 2 runs. Looking at 500mb it still brings down a secondary lobe that wraps around the west side of the primary lobe, causing it to elongate and shear out as it moves east toward Texas. Other models like the euro do show this secondary lobe, but keep the overall system compact which leads to a bigger storm for us. The reason the 12z gfs is an improvement is because it shows less shearing out of the system in comparison to the previous runs and may be in the process of caving to the euro. Given this, I think the best rule right now is to continue following the euro for 500mb pattern and icon/nam for temps, as these seem to be the respective areas where these models excel. Of course, using this rule gives us in ntx the best chance for a bigger storm, so I’m probably biased :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2665 Postby Fifty Rock » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:36 am

Ntxw wrote:
Fifty Rock wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
There are guidance such as the GFS that keep West Texas dry with little qpf, I'm not sure they can be all that confident either, temps alone is not enough.


Bite your tongue Sir. Leave my qpf alone out here.


Aha I know, rooting for you all also. Everyone has reason to doubt in the different areas for failed modes, with your colder temp profiles you won't need much. We're all sitting better though than we were earlier this past week!


Yeah, we have about a thousand feet of elevation on you folks in the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2666 Postby JayDT » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:37 am

Ntxw wrote:It looks like the OP runs this morning are converging on a good timing phase painted by the last few Euro runs at 5h. Nuances will dictate qpf as well as development of coastal low pressure. There are convective streaks coming out of Mexico (with limited field of view naturally out there.) but definitely increasing confidence a major winter storm is coming out to Texas. As noted prior jet streak from SW to NE is unusually strong for our region.

Now watch the Euro flip :lol:. Probably not but seen worse.


I’ll just pretend I didn’t read that last part… :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2667 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:41 am

Central and Eastern Kansas is just getting crushed right now. That's just brutal little piece of Canada they got there.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2668 Postby wxman22 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:41 am

The important NBM (national blend of models).Good support for a snowstorm.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2669 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:43 am

wxman22 wrote:The important NBM (national blend of models).Good support for a snowstorm.

https://i.ibb.co/N9BFHM0/snowfall-acc-imp-us-sc.png


Is this the preferred conglomerate from the NWS? It might provide insight as to where they will trend in the different regions in their future discussions.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2670 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:47 am

Just to give you an idea at the volatility I was referring to above. This is an ensemble no less. 6z to 12z ensemble of the GEFS. Still putting out a decent snow signal but look at the huge shifts (further north you go) even at this range from run to run.

Image

Image
Last edited by txtwister78 on Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2671 Postby snownado » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:48 am

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't any storm greater than 2" good for a Winter Storm Warning in North Texas?

I do know the bar is quite low due to climo.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2672 Postby wxman22 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:49 am

Ntxw wrote:
wxman22 wrote:The important NBM (national blend of models).Good support for a snowstorm.

https://i.ibb.co/N9BFHM0/snowfall-acc-imp-us-sc.png


Is this the preferred conglomerate from the NWS? It might provide insight as to where they will trend in the different regions in their future discussions.


Yep the NWS puts a lot of weight in the NBM for their forecast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2673 Postby snownado » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:50 am

snownado wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't any storm greater than 2" good for a Winter Storm Warning in North Texas?

I do know the bar is quite low due to climo.


Never mind.

I just looked it up myself and it's 3"...
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2674 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:51 am

snownado wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't any storm greater than 2" good for a Winter Storm Warning in North Texas?

I do know the bar is quite low due to climo.


For the NWS Fort Worth WFO region.

Winter Storm Watch

Issued when the following conditions are possible within 12 to 36 hours: heavy snowfall of 4 or more inches in 12 hours or 6 or more inches in 24 hours; freezing rain and/or freezing drizzle accumulating to a depth of 0.25 inches or greater; or heavy sleet accumulating to a depth of 1/2 inch or more.

Winter Storm Warning

Issued when the hazardous winter weather conditions defined above are occurring or expected to occur within 12 hours.

Freeze Warning

Issued for the first occurrence of freezing temperatures in the fall, for late freezes during the spring, or for a freeze expected to occur after a prolonged warm spell.

Winter Weather Advisory

Issued when either or all of the following are expected. Snow accumulations less than 4 inches in 6 hours, or less than 6 inches in 24 hours OR freezing rain accumulation less than 0.25 inch. OR freezing drizzle with little or no accumulation.

Wind Chill Advisory

Issued when forecast wind chill values will be below -20 degrees.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2675 Postby Fifty Rock » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:53 am

snownado wrote:
snownado wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't any storm greater than 2" good for a Winter Storm Warning in North Texas?

I do know the bar is quite low due to climo.


Never mind.

I just looked it up myself and it's 3"...


Got this from NWS FTW.
Winter storm warnings are issued when forecasts indicate 4 inches or more of heavy snowfall over 12 hours (6 inches or more in 24 hours) or ½ inch of sleet accumulation. A winter storm warning is also issued when a combination of hazardous winter weather in the form of heavy snow, freezing rain, or sleet is looming.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2676 Postby Texas Snow » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:54 am

Here are the NBM trends

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2677 Postby snownado » Sun Jan 05, 2025 12:01 pm

Ntxw wrote:
snownado wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't any storm greater than 2" good for a Winter Storm Warning in North Texas?

I do know the bar is quite low due to climo.


For the NWS Fort Worth WFO region.

Winter Storm Watch

Issued when the following conditions are possible within 12 to 36 hours: heavy snowfall of 4 or more inches in 12 hours or 6 or more inches in 24 hours; freezing rain and/or freezing drizzle accumulating to a depth of 0.25 inches or greater; or heavy sleet accumulating to a depth of 1/2 inch or more.

Winter Storm Warning

Issued when the hazardous winter weather conditions defined above are occurring or expected to occur within 12 hours.

Freeze Warning

Issued for the first occurrence of freezing temperatures in the fall, for late freezes during the spring, or for a freeze expected to occur after a prolonged warm spell.

Winter Weather Advisory

Issued when either or all of the following are expected. Snow accumulations less than 4 inches in 6 hours, or less than 6 inches in 24 hours OR freezing rain accumulation less than 0.25 inch. OR freezing drizzle with little or no accumulation.

Wind Chill Advisory

Issued when forecast wind chill values will be below -20 degrees.


I'm pretty sure that's outdated (not sure why FWD still has it up).

The NWS apparently established a more simplified criteria in late 2023, which is 3" or greater for a winter storm event up to 48 hours long for our region (North Texas).

https://www.wltx.com/article/weather/ne ... ddade621ec

In the past, each of the 122 NWS offices for their respective jurisdictions set the standards by which those watches and warnings were issued. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which is in charge of the NWS, those jurisdictions normally encompass ten to twenty counties.

The main goal of altering the NWS snow criteria, according to NOAA, is to improve uniformity among nearby forecast offices. More uniformity will encourage more coordinated and efficient public and partner messaging regarding winter storms. Furthermore, the new criteria are based on improved standards of the scientific method.

The new criteria now apply to a winter storm event (up to 48 hours long) rather than the previous 12-hour or 24-hour timing criteria.

All regional NWS offices will adhere to the new standards this season, which are based on the thresholds that the main NWS office has set. The updated "Winter Storm Warning Criteria" map shows those thresholds.


https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/insta ... 05689d9949
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2678 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 12:14 pm

snownado wrote:I'm pretty sure that's outdated (not sure why FWD still has it up).

The NWS apparently established a more simplified criteria in late 2023, which is 3" or greater for a winter storm event up to 48 hours long for our region (North Texas).

https://www.wltx.com/article/weather/ne ... ddade621ec

In the past, each of the 122 NWS offices for their respective jurisdictions set the standards by which those watches and warnings were issued. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which is in charge of the NWS, those jurisdictions normally encompass ten to twenty counties.

The main goal of altering the NWS snow criteria, according to NOAA, is to improve uniformity among nearby forecast offices. More uniformity will encourage more coordinated and efficient public and partner messaging regarding winter storms. Furthermore, the new criteria are based on improved standards of the scientific method.

The new criteria now apply to a winter storm event (up to 48 hours long) rather than the previous 12-hour or 24-hour timing criteria.

All regional NWS offices will adhere to the new standards this season, which are based on the thresholds that the main NWS office has set. The updated "Winter Storm Warning Criteria" map shows those thresholds.


https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/insta ... 05689d9949


Thanks! The various offices still have the prior information saved, will update it. It's interesting the amounts still vary by region, but timing is different. So basically they lowered the snow criteria to 3" from a stripe West Texas -> North Texas -> Central Arkansas -> Upper Mid South but can issue it out up to 48 hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2679 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 12:17 pm

While we wait for more models, these weather apps and various sites are fun. AccuWeather has snow and ice here Thursday (40% odds) and my computer App shows rain and snow mix Thursday (60%) odds with flurries in DFW (AccuWeather) Weather Channel shows rain here with a Rain and Snow Dallas. Pick a site get a different outcome. Obviously, these will fluctuate but funny nonetheless.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2680 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Jan 05, 2025 12:19 pm

txtwister78 wrote:While we wait for more models, these weather apps and various sites are fun. AccuWeather has snow and ice here Thursday (40% odds) and my computer App shows rain and snow mix Thursday (60%) odds with flurries in DFW (AccuWeather) Weather Channel shows rain here with a Rain and Snow Dallas. Pick a site get a different outcome. Obviously, these will fluctuate but funny nonetheless.

So true. Sometimes if need a chuckle I will look at the weather apps to see how ridiculous they can be. Accuweather takes the cake due to the month long "forecast" it provides.
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