Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

Many regard 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 as two of the best years for cold the past decade, here is where they stood in the same time frame

2009/2010


2010/2011

[Ntxw]

Per 12z Euro, DFW will struggle getting much above freezing all of next week starting Sunday night under shallow cold. GFS says 30s and 40s

[Portastorm]

I'm sick and tired of this cold weather. When is it going to warm up?!

[DonWrk]

We're doomed, Porta joined the dark (warm) side

[TeamPlayersBlue]

WxMan57 hijack your accounr?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I'm sick and tired of this cold weather. When is it going to warm up?!

Uh oh.... looks like WXman57 spiked his lunch with something.....

[HouTXmetro]

Wow, so like that everyone is abandoning ship on the artic air? Guess I should have learned from the past not to get excited about anything more than 3 days out in the Winter time. It never fails.

[Tireman4]

Oh man. Porta has left us. Dadgummit.

[dhweather]

Wow, so like that everyone is abandoning ship on the artic air? Guess I should have learned from the past not to get excited about anything more than 3 days out in the Winter time. It never fails.

I've never been on the ship, 3-4 days out is all I trust. Maybe the arctic event happens, maybe it doesn't. We will probably get some cold weather, but nothing close to 1985. Days 5-7 are possible events, Days 8-14 is remote speculation, beyond that it's all a SWAG.


Signals don't necessarily mean something is going to happen. Like a La Nina in early 2012 that went neutral, should mean a relatively quiet or average year in the tropical Atlantic. Well, it didn't work out that way. Gray started out with 10 named storms in April, changed it to 13 in June, 14 in August, we had 19.

[Ntxw]

It's not going to happen. We skip spring to summer, I already canceled winter and Porta joined the dark side

[Texas Snowman]

Where's Mississippi State Guy when you need him?!?

[orangeblood]

Per 12z Euro, DFW will struggle getting much above freezing all of next week starting Sunday night under shallow cold. GFS says 30s and 40s

Where are you seeing this ?? The 12Z Euro model text output I'm looking for DFW 2M temps is showing highs of at least 40 Monday thru Wednesday of next week.

[Ntxw]

Where are you seeing this ?? The 12Z Euro model text output I'm looking for DFW 2M temps is showing highs of at least 40 Monday thru Wednesday of next week.

I used the free stuff from wunderground's wundermap, I'm not sure how accurate it is. I'll take your word for it since I don't have access to text output anymore

[Kennethb]

If you want to see where the cold air is, go to the link below. The coldest air in on the other side of the globe, is thick and heavy and IMO is not going anywhere.


http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/ge ... TTPPWW.gif

[Ntxw]

For wxman57 the next three days in Houston, summer is here folks

***
Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers before noon. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51. South wind around 5 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73.

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.

[Snowman67]

I'm sick and tired of this cold weather. When is it going to warm up?!

I imagine at some point these words were spoken:

57 - "Porta - I am your father, come to the dark side"

[orangeblood]

If you want to see where the cold air is, go to the link below. The coldest air in on the other side of the globe, is thick and heavy and IMO is not going anywhere.


http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/ge ... TTPPWW.gif

It really is incredible the type of winters occurring over there the past few years. Those kind of insane cold anomalies will make 100 year averages move....it's little ice age type numbers

[BigB0882]

Winter cancel? Well, then I want to jump straight to Hurricane season!

[dhweather]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CST WED JAN 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LONG DURATION RAIN EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT THE END
IS IN SIGHT AS INDICATED BY SUBSTANTIAL DRY PUSH NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. MANY AREAS IN NORTH TEXAS RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES. THIS RAIN HAS BEEN MUCH NEEDED AND WILL GREATLY HELP
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS NEAR
ABILENE IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW.
THIS HAS ALLOWED AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR
THE COAST AT ROCKPORT NORTHWEST TO AUSTIN AND SAN ANGELO. THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED AND MOVE NORTH TO NEAR WICHITA
FALLS BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF NORTH TEXAS IN A
MOISTURE RICH EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...SO THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THERE IS AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA AND THIS IS LIKELY TO
BECOME THE DOMINANT AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP MOVES
EAST...WE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE OUR FEED FROM THE GULF AND PRECIP
SHOULD END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS WELL AND FOLLOWED ITS TIMING THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS WILL GENERALLY BE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF. FORCING
FROM THE UPPER LOW IS QUITE STRONG SO WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE WILL NOT BE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS AFTER IT DEPARTS OTHER THAN
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING ALOFT.

CONCERNING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA AND GROUNDS ARE
SATURATED. WE HAVE RECEIVED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF SMALL STREAMS FULL
AND TYPICAL FLOODING OF LOW AREAS. RAINFALL RATES WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN AROUND 1/10 OF AN INCH PER HOUR
HOWEVER ACTIVITY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST IS HEAVIER. SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS OF CLOUD TOPS INDICATE COLDER TOPS SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS CORRESPONDS TO AN
AREA OF RAIN WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITY AND HEAVIER RAIN RATES. RAIN
RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH PER HOUR MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SO WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THERE
THROUGH 10 PM.

CONCERNING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LOW
WITH MOST INSTABILITY NOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND OVER THE
GULF. WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT ALL AREAS.

BEYOND TONIGHT...THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY
LOOKING QUITE NICE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S
AREAWIDE BUT THE NICE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL
CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND ALLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY
STRONG FORCING...FROM BOTH THE FRONT AND ASCENT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 40S AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A VERY COLD RAIN IN
SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

CONCERNING THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
INDICATING A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS AND MAINTAINING A
STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN
IS FAVORABLE FOR COLD AIR TO DIVE WELL INTO TEXAS. GIVEN THE
SUGGESTED PATTERN...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
THE HANDLING OF THE ENERGY TO THE SOUTHWEST. IF ANY MOISTURE CAN
BE LIFTED ATOP THE COLD AIR AND FORCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH
OVERSPREADS THE AREA...THEN WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A SETUP
FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. WITH A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM NOSE OF NEAR 10 DEGREES C JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ANY PRECIP
WOULD LIKELY WARM THE VERY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE COLD AIR. IF
SURFACE TEMPS ARE CONSIDERABLY COLDER...THEN THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN INCREASES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BUT COLD
NEXT WEEK BASED ON VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN MOISTURE/FORCING.
HOWEVER THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES.

DUNN

[cycloneye]

Winter cancel? Well, then I want to jump straight to Hurricane season!

Off Topic but only to post this for you.

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/ge ... ane+Season