Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

The indices are still looking good if you are a snow lover. Pretty consistent -AO coming and +PNA. Again the risk is the coldest air moving to the east but with lower heights the threat for significant ice storms decreases and even though it's possible we may be on the edges of cold air (direct discharge is still a possibility) it will either be rain or snow not the nasty stuff between. Storms will likely be more robust than the models are currently seeing especially if the AO indeed sinks to modest levels.

[WeatherGuesser]

Just dropping a link to a recap article for whatever it's worth:

http://www.star-telegram.com/2013/12/23 ... years.html

[somethingfunny]

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... &version=1

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Very nice

[Ntxw]

Wishing everyone a happy Christmas eve and a Merry Christmas! No such storm anywhere in Texas this year so lets take a look back at last year in what probably was the highlight of winter for north and northeast Texas. The northern Texas Christmas day miracle (not to be confused with the south Texas 2004 miracle which was amazing too and worth mentioning). And it truly was, many posters and even FWD didn't believe it would snow down in the metroplex on Christmas eve. Many believed we would be dry slotted or too warm but it happened. It fell on Christmas day and for DFW airport it was the third such recording of measurable snow on Christmas day.



2004 event, Victoria TX had 13 inches while Corpus had over 5



Both were well seen far in advance, beastly storms. Last year's storm we were tracking it when it was 240+ hours out right through impact. Though I don't have recollection of the 04 event but I've heard about forecasters predicting something of such due to the GFS seeing it far out.

[TheProfessor]

I think the greatest one of them all was the christmas eve blizzard. I remember the day before my friend and I were playing football and it was the type of weather wxman57 dreams of during the winter. ( 80 degrees and sunshine ). But the next day it would have been his worst nightmare. temperatures dropped to the 20s and we got 6+ inches of snow and 40 mph winds. It was also my dogs first snow ( He used to live in Houston) and he HATED it!

[Ntxw]

Here in the forums that storm was the notorious Msstateguy guy's prediction storm. He put bullseyes of 10+ inches near the falls and OKC and had snow down to DFW on Christmas eve. No one and I mean no one believed him and we all thought he was nuts to the core Portastorm can tell you this (he was the biggest critic of them all! Dark times for PWC), models were showing snow in Kansas and panhandles. That was exactly how it happened! Probably the most incredible forecast against the grain we have ever seen in the southern plains winter threads.

[Portastorm]

Yep. I concur, Ntxw. We all thought he was nuts. Well ... actually there were a few who he had on board with him, but I would say 95% of everyone else thought he was simply -removed- a storm that would never occur. What did we know?! It did!

Unfortunately things went downhill though after that. He went on that winter to forecast other storms which did not materialize and the subsequent chatter and debate ended badly for him. He earned a suspension for poor behavior and then he took his toys and left. So to speak.

On a brighter note, I want to wish all my friends here a very Merry Christmas! I hope whatever you're doing tonight and/or tomorrow gives you peace and joy and is in the company of friends and/or loved ones.

[TheProfessor]

Did he predict the snowmageddon in the second half of winter? I remember seeing NOAA forecasting only 4-6" and my friends at school where saying we were only going to get a few inches. I saw 1 model (I was young and didn't know to base anything off 1 model.) and told them that i thought we would get 8-12". They all laughed at me but I ended up being right. We got 13" of snow dumped on my house!

I would not mind another storm like that occurring again this year.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Did he predict the snowmageddon in the second half of winter? I remember seeing NOAA forecasting only 4-6" and my friends at school where saying we were only going to get a few inches. I saw 1 model (I was young and didn't know to base anything off 1 model.) and told them that i thought we would get 8-12". They all laughed at me but I ended up being write. We got 13" of snow dumped on my house!

I would not mind another storm like that occurring again this year.

In a sense he did, but not really. He predicted every storm after that (or non storm) to dump snow on North Texas/Falls) so I guess a blind squirrel will find a nut eventually if he kept trying. Snowmageddon was not completely blind of. Many of us here believed a snow event was going to occur within 5 days of it. Some models like the NAM predicted 8+ inches, most of us didn't have access to euro amounts back then. HPC had put out a 10% chance of a foot in north Texas which is pretty high for that category in our region. GFS was probably the outlier and had too little. But the hours leading up to it we fell into the model's depicting a warm up in the atmosphere along with the NWS and media, warm nose that would switch it to rain. That didn't happen and it just kept going.

This storm too the GFS had seen 200+ hours out dumping snow on the northern half of Texas which we also tracked well before. Lost the snow in the mid range but still had a system. I guess the moral of the story here is if there is going to be a big, wide impacting storm unusual in nature we tend to see it on the models and it continues throughout the runs in some form or fashion even if beyond truncation.

[aggiecutter]

Texarkana White Christmas 2012:
http://s269.photobucket.com/user/Photo4 ... e.mp4.html

[orangeblood]

Overnight Euro starting to show what the GFS had in its long range forecast a few days ago....phases both northern and southern branches across the southern plains around New Years!! Definitely something that bears watching

[wxman57]

I'm looking at the Euro ensembles and deterministic runs an only the deterministic run has a light freeze for Houston on the 3rd. Some of the ensemble members have a low temp near 25 that day, other say 40s for the low. Looking at the North America 500mb height anomaly maps I don't see anything much different from the current flow pattern through day 15. Continued very cold for the Great Lakes and northeast, but nothing shooting down the Plains to Texas is very cold.

[DonWrk]

I wish we could pull up a chat log of MSStateguys posts or something! Always wanted to read up on that famous post!

[Ntxw]

I'm looking at the Euro ensembles and deterministic runs an only the deterministic run has a light freeze for Houston on the 3rd. Some of the ensemble members have a low temp near 25 that day, other say 40s for the low. Looking at the North America 500mb height anomaly maps I don't see anything much different from the current flow pattern through day 15. Continued very cold for the Great Lakes and northeast, but nothing shooting down the Plains to Texas is very cold.

Just cold enough! I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of winter storms threatened Texas, even down to Houston. It's certainly no biking weather for you sir and maybe snow will make it down to your neck of the woods. We won't see the storms come out of the southwest shredded apart, they will be suppressed since the low in the lakes is a pseudo block. The models will probably trend colder across the plains, A great lakes low is not friendly for you. More or less Merry Christmas to you wxman57 and I definitely appreciate all your analysis throughout the year for us .

[Portastorm]

I wish we could pull up a chat log of MSStateguys posts or something! Always wanted to read up on that famous post!

Actually, you can. If you have some time ... click on the link below. It is the Texas winter weather thread from 2009-10. This link will take you to Dec. 21, 2009, when the chatter started to pick up on the event.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106895&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=1620

[Ntxw]

Here's an interesting story of the day. The ice storm two weeks ago still haunts many! People don't realize how big of a distribution hub DFW is. Backlog for UPS which started since the delay from the ice storm effecting many today on Christmas without some gifts.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/25/us/ups-delays/

[TexasF6]

Merry Christmas Everyone! Let it snow in Austin Texas!!! Eventually May God bless you all & your families!

[aggiecutter]

Merry Christmas to all and a special gift to Portastorm:
http://i.minus.com/ib1D9qkyHyfLRF.gif

[ndale]

Merry Christmas everyone.

No snow for Christmas but we do have rain, well at least a light drizzle.