Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

Behind that blizzard to start the new month will drive some pretty impressive cold air. Models are not too flashy with the surface numbers as of now, but history has shown behind these deep cyclogenesis drills some arctic air. Certainly shows it aloft. It will likely be the coldest thus far this winter.





Right now it's just a keep behind your mind type thing until it gets within 144 hours.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

9 inches of snow just south of Ft Stockton today. Lol

[Portastorm]

9 inches of snow just south of Ft Stockton today. Lol

Euro smoked the GFS today in Texas. But I don't think King Euro saw that coming. Clearly the upper level system was stronger than progged and squeezed every drop it could out of the air.

[South Texas Storms]

9 inches of snow just south of Ft Stockton today. Lol

Euro smoked the GFS today in Texas. But I don't think King Euro saw that coming. Clearly the upper level system was stronger than progged and squeezed every drop it could out of the air.

It definitely did Porta. The only model that was even close to how active the radar was in south central Texas today was the HRRR, but even it was drier than what actually happened across some parts of the area.

My dad said that my house in SA got just under 0.50 inch of rain today. No model showed more than 0.10 inch. There were also some hail reports around SA.

This storm was definitely stronger than all models forecasted. If it was about 10F colder, we could have seen some snow across the region. Snow is currently being reported just north of Rocksprings.

[Brent]

9 inches of snow just south of Ft Stockton today. Lol

So I-35 truly is a snow repellent...

[Ntxw]

Still seeing a powerful system to plaster the Great Plains around Groundhogs day on the GFS. Bigger and deeper than December. Track notwithstanding of yet. Some brutal cold will follow it upstream. This looks like some legit cold from the EPO, not the AO which will be Positive.

A pattern like this as modeled potentially would yield a longer duration cold snap, 'blue northers'

[gpsnowman]

Pfft it can be warmer than normal up there in March and April. We just need February to have anomalous cold for a few weeks . It's going to be a cold spring though. Nearly all El Nino's of every kind features a chilly spring.

Calling it, coldest air of the season behind that big blizzard early Feb.

I hope you are correct.

[wxman57]

What would a GFS run be without at least one forecast for winter precip in the D-FW area beyond 240 hrs? Euro indicates a few light freezes for the D-FW area next week, but nothing significant through 10 days weather-wise. Beyond 10 days, Euro ensembles indicate lowering pressures in western Canada along with rising temperatures there. That doesn't point toward any significant Arctic outbreak through mid February.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Next weeks storm is trending a bit further south as Ntx reported it would. Going to have some severe weather with this thing. Ugh.

[TheProfessor]

Looks like winter is already over here, the squirrels have already come back out and are chasing each other.

[srainhoutx]

It appears a legitimate Stratospheric Warming event is already developing and will punch the Polar Vortex fairly hard over the next week. I would be very careful regarding the run to run consistency of the operational computer guidance right now. Even the ensembles are struggling with the Hemispheric Pattern evolving. It's a bit too early to cancel Winter on January 27th.

[Ntxw]

Big weather happening next week folks. As Srain mentioned winter is far from over. As we have seen time and time again when things warm up abruptly (70s Saturday) is because a strong system is pushing up heights ahead of the crash. It creates the big temperature gradient and mois return from the gulf for a major storm to deepen

[Tireman4]

It appears a legitimate Stratospheric Warming event is already developing and will punch the Polar Vortex fairly hard over the next week. I would be very careful regarding the run to run consistency of the operational computer guidance right now. Even the ensembles are struggling with the Hemispheric Pattern evolving. It's a bit too early to cancel Winter on January 27th.

Woo hoo. Finally the wisdom of one of our seasoned mets...yes sir!!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Big weather happening next week folks. As Srain mentioned winter is far from over. As we have seen time and time again when things warm up abruptly (70s Saturday) is because a strong system is pushing up heights ahead of the crash. It creates the big temperature gradient and mois return from the gulf for a major storm to deepen

What kind of big weather are we looking at?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Big weather happening next week folks. As Srain mentioned winter is far from over. As we have seen time and time again when things warm up abruptly (70s Saturday) is because a strong system is pushing up heights ahead of the crash. It creates the big temperature gradient and mois return from the gulf for a major storm to deepen

What kind of big weather are we looking at?

Blizzard for the plains/southern plains region.

[Ntxw]

And potentially severe weather outbreak with possible tornadoes on the warm side

[Texas Snowman]

And cue Wxman57's faithful rebuttal in three, two, one...

[TheProfessor]

I'm all for a farther south and eventually east positioning of the storm next week. if the ridge can be a bit more east than modeled and the storm digs more then that should bring snow to Texas and hopefully snow for me, models are predicting qpf totals close to 2 inches for me, I would love for most of that to be snow.

[TexasStorm]

Posted by NBC 5 on FB this morning:

Snowfall @ DFW in February since 1980
No Snow - 14 years
Trace to .99" - 12 years
1" - 4" - 9 years
Over 4" - 1 year

In my best Effie Trinket voice, "May the odds ever be in your favor"

[wxman57]

First significant Central Plains snowstorm in a while next Monday/Tuesday, which makes someone who likes hot weather nervous. Nothing indicated of significance here in Texas (yet), but I never like to see the snow pack dipping farther southward.