Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

Is it ever gonna be like under 200 hours

[orangeblood]

All in a meager 360 hours.

Up for a name change to “dhbuzzkill”??

[Ralph's Weather]

Is it ever gonna be like under 200 hours

Soon, last third of this month will come soon enough. For now enjoy the pleasant temps outside.

[hamburgerman7070]

All in a meager 360 hours.

Up for a name change to “dhbuzzkill”??

Orangeblood, the change starts around hr 300 i do believe on the eps I think a little earlier

[South Texas Storms]

There is good agreement in the latest long-range models and ensembles that our much anticipated pattern change will be arriving over the next few weeks. Canada will likely get cold in the 6-10 day frame, with potential cross polar flow bringing the cold air down into the U.S. and eventually Texas around or shortly after January 20.

My long-range coworker and I are in agreement that the January 20-February 20 time period will be filled with several threats of winter storms across the state. Just be patient...exciting times are likely coming soon!

[SoupBone]

There is good agreement in the latest long-range models and ensembles that our much anticipated pattern change will be arriving over the next few weeks. Canada will likely get cold in the 6-10 day frame, with potential cross polar flow bringing the cold air down into the U.S. and eventually Texas around or shortly after January 20.

My long-range coworker and I are in agreement that the January 20-February 20 time period will be filled with several threats of winter storms across the state. Just be patient...exciting times are likely coming soon!

And if it duds, we run wxman57 out of the state with pitchforks!

[Portastorm]

There is good agreement in the latest long-range models and ensembles that our much anticipated pattern change will be arriving over the next few weeks. Canada will likely get cold in the 6-10 day frame, with potential cross polar flow bringing the cold air down into the U.S. and eventually Texas around or shortly after January 20.

My long-range coworker and I are in agreement that the January 20-February 20 time period will be filled with several threats of winter storms across the state. Just be patient...exciting times are likely coming soon!

Somebody buy this man a drink!

[Lagreeneyes03]

12z GFS shows a colder pattern setting up in the longer range and, more importantly, it maintains the active wave train.

Just watched JB's morning video. He's still very confident it's coming.

This second half of Jan fip to cold and wintery for the Southern Plains is and has been for a while a pretty safe bet. Now making bets on any given storm to produce is unreasonable, but I have high confidence that we will see winter storms between 1/20 & 3/10 over much of the Southern Plains.

Well that's a Spring Break ruiner right there. Pretty much after Feb 28, the snow and cold can take a hike, please. Then it's time for bluebonnet season.

[EnnisTx]

There is good agreement in the latest long-range models and ensembles that our much anticipated pattern change will be arriving over the next few weeks. Canada will likely get cold in the 6-10 day frame, with potential cross polar flow bringing the cold air down into the U.S. and eventually Texas around or shortly after January 20.

My long-range coworker and I are in agreement that the January 20-February 20 time period will be filled with several threats of winter storms across the state. Just be patient...exciting times are likely coming soon!

And if it duds, we run wxman57 out of the state with pitchforks!

State??? I say North of the wall he's building!

[harp]

The last couple of frames of the new GFS might be beginning to illustrate this. I realize it's way out there, but it fits the anticipated pattern change that has been discussed for a few weeks now.

[EnnisTx]

There is good agreement in the latest long-range models and ensembles that our much anticipated pattern change will be arriving over the next few weeks. Canada will likely get cold in the 6-10 day frame, with potential cross polar flow bringing the cold air down into the U.S. and eventually Texas around or shortly after January 20.

My long-range coworker and I are in agreement that the January 20-February 20 time period will be filled with several threats of winter storms across the state. Just be patient...exciting times are likely coming soon!

Somebody buy this man a drink!

If he can deliver, I'll buy him a bottle! If he doesn't. I'll still buy the bottle and drink it myself!!

[bubba hotep]

All in a meager 360 hours.

Normally, this would be my stance. However, that is a rather strong statement for the EPS at that range, it is typically overly dispersive and you usually have to do cluster analysis to tease out trends but that run is a slap in the face
Also, the upcoming MJO progression, MT/FT, and the downwelling impacts of the SSW all favor cold. I do still remain somewhat skeptical, the atmosphere is great at making fools of us all.

[bubba hotep]

NWS Houston chimes in on the upcoming rain

[Cpv17]

Hmmmm...

[Cpv17]

Well the 0z Euro is a dud tonight and the FV3 ..blahhh

[Ralph's Weather]

Just watched JB's morning video. He's still very confident it's coming.

This second half of Jan fip to cold and wintery for the Southern Plains is and has been for a while a pretty safe bet. Now making bets on any given storm to produce is unreasonable, but I have high confidence that we will see winter storms between 1/20 & 3/10 over much of the Southern Plains.

Well that's a Spring Break ruiner right there. Pretty much after Feb 28, the snow and cold can take a hike, please. Then it's time for bluebonnet season.

Recent moderate El Ninos have produced significant March winter storms and I expect this one to be No different. Sadly by March you are getting back into mixed precip season. Jan and Feb tend to be more rain or snow.

[Texas Snow]

From Steve McCauley:

Many of you have commented on hearing about a "polar vortex" and the resulting bitterly cold air moving in during the last days of December or the first couple of days of the new year. Obviously that did not happen. And I am happy to say the Stat Method continues to call for no bitterly cold Arctic Air intrusions for the foreseeable future for us.

When I was driving back from West Virginia, I was listening to an interview with a prominent forecaster who last fall was calling for a bitterly cold and icy winter across much of the country, including our area, reminiscent of the winter of 1977 when freezing temperatures and even snow made it down to Miami!

And though none of this has come true, keep in mind we still have February to get through. But so far, there does not appear to be anything in the data to suggest this will happen .... yet. My palm trees have not even gone dormant this winter!

[wxman57]

I see that both the GFS & Euro are indicating some cross-Polar flow starting around the 14th-15th. That would bring some much colder air southward through Canada. Fortunately, my wall will be finished by next week - and I'm getting the Canadians to pay for it!

[gpsnowman]

I see that both the GFS & Euro are indicating some cross-Polar flow starting around the 14th-15th. That would bring some much colder air southward through Canada. Fortunately, my wall will be finished by next week - and I'm getting the Canadians to pay for it!

Nice plan but Trudeau will never go for it.

[srainhoutx]

El Nino chances have decreased to 65% probability by Spring and a Moderate El Nino is no longer anticipated. The most to expect is a weak El Nino and that is looking less likely. Therefore no significant impacts are expected in the Hemispheric Weather Patterns.