Texas Winter 2023-2024

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
mmmmsnouts
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 154
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2023 10:04 pm
Location: Arlington, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2681 Postby mmmmsnouts » Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:04 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:Playoff game KC tonight temp -6 wc -23 :froze:


I don't get it. Frostbite kicks in pretty quickly at that temp....

I would be very concerned if I were there.


Saw a video where someone working a concession stand took a bottle of water out of the “refrigerator” and it froze solid in about 10 seconds.

 https://twitter.com/FloNoFro/status/1746316152203084201


Last edited by mmmmsnouts on Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   

snownado
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 789
Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2023 7:00 pm
Location: Plano, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2682 Postby snownado » Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:04 pm

Ghost0321 wrote:Is there a thick warm layer above the cold air? Every met has freezing drizzle for DFW even though temps will be well into the 20s


"Thick" isn't the word I would use.

But yes, as is typical with these shallow arctic airmasses, ther will often be an above-freezing layer of air somewhere aloft.
0 likes   

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2540
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2683 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:08 pm

mmmmsnouts wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:Playoff game KC tonight temp -6 wc -23 :froze:


I don't get it. Frostbite kicks in pretty quickly at that temp....

I would be very concerned if I were there.


Saw a video where someone working a concession stand took a bottle of water out of the “refrigerator” and it froze solid in about 10 seconds.

https://twitter.com/FloNoFro/status/1746316152203084201?t=2sJ4mcDz_djlI3sqVqLkPg&s=19


That happened to me in New Mexico as a kid. I found a water bottle underneath the seat of my car, from when we were down in Texas it had not frozen. I opened it up and this exact same thing happened, but it was like twenty below up in the mountains.
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38095
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2684 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:08 pm

gpsnowman wrote:I bet tomorrow will be more active once the precip is the main focus. We all knew the cold was coming. Could be people taking a weather break before it gets interesting tomorrow.


Theres so much uncertainty up here with how much snow do we lose to the dry air. Nobody has a clue but most are along the same lines in agreement(1-2 inches) but there's room for a surprise for sure especially with the high ratios and the fact its gonna be 6-7 degrees. It's just what else can you say right now... There's only so many model runs

It's a very odd setup up here for sure
4 likes   
#neversummer

Gotwood
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 627
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2022 7:18 pm
Location: Brock Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2685 Postby Gotwood » Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:13 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Gotwood wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:I don’t really follow closely or watch his videos, nor have I model chased today at all today to see if there is new data yet, but Texas Storm Chasers just posted this if anyone is interested:

Working on an update video now regarding INCREASING ice chances/coverage late Sunday afternoon into Monday. Will have it up by 9PM and share it here.

~David Baldy-in-Chief


Of course he could be talking anywhere in the state.

Nam is showing increased coverage and accumulation. A lot more QPF in the state. I have a feeling there is going to be a ton of freezing drizzle can’t imagine what that looks like with temps in the teens. Very surprised people here are quite.


I don't know. QPF looks about the same or maybe a little less than 18z overall. Maybe some more QPF across SE TX, but there weren't any obvious trends from 12z today to 00z.

Yeah I was speaking in terms to models showing literally 0 QPF for the majority of the state in the past few days.
0 likes   

Harp.1
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 207
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2023 12:37 am

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2686 Postby Harp.1 » Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:20 pm

It’s going to be nowcasting time soon.
2 likes   

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2687 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:33 pm

During most of the event my area along I-20 in East Texas will have a classic dendritic growth zone at around 500mb but a large dry and warm zone centered on 700mb then saturation but warm at 850mb with temps sharply falling from 850mb to the surface with full saturation. So low and warm cloud deck and precip freezing as it falls equals freezing drizzle when rates are low and sleet when rates are higher. Some snow as the cloud deck cools towards tomorrow morning. QPF here seems between 0.15-0.35" which should be around 1" of mixed accumulation. Precip starts late morning tomorrow and lasts until midday Monday.
2 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1477
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2688 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:37 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:During most of the event my area along I-20 in East Texas will have a classic dendritic growth zone at around 500mb but a large dry and warm zone centered on 700mb then saturation but warm at 850mb with temps sharply falling from 850mb to the surface with full saturation. So low and warm cloud deck and precip freezing as it falls equals freezing drizzle when rates are low and sleet when rates are higher. Some snow as the cloud deck cools towards tomorrow morning. QPF here seems between 0.15-0.35" which should be around 1" of mixed accumulation. Precip starts late morning tomorrow and lasts until midday Monday.



Parents in Longview aren’t enthused at wrapping the Palms around the pool.

Y’all look primed for some heavy sleet.
2 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2689 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:53 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Parents in Longview aren’t enthused at wrapping the Palms around the pool.

Y’all look primed for some heavy sleet.


What do you think is a reasonable range of outcomes around here? I am thinking a max around 2" of mix if rates are higher and more snow than expected falls. 0.5-1" of mix sounds most reasonable.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
Texas Snow
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 784
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2015 12:06 pm
Location: N. Dallas & Cedar Creek Lake

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2690 Postby Texas Snow » Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:55 pm

Just a quick glance upon latest models looks like less QPF overall. Not sure what the hype was. Like stated above, after some early morning model glances tomorrow, it switches to now-casting.

Edit: Not in reply to Ralph’s post
1 likes   
"Don't let wishcastin get in the way of your forecastin"

Image

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1477
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2691 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:56 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Parents in Longview aren’t enthused at wrapping the Palms around the pool.

Y’all look primed for some heavy sleet.


What do you think is a reasonable range of outcomes around here? I am thinking a max around 2" of mix if rates are higher and more snow than expected falls. 0.5-1" of mix sounds most reasonable.


2 is max and that doesn’t seem likely. One inch of sleet seems likely with some freezing rain mixed in.

Y’all could see a quick burst of snow but the ratios don’t look impressive.
1 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1798
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2692 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:57 pm

In the negative wind chills up here now.
2 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1477
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2693 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:58 pm

Texas Snow wrote:Just a quick glance upon latest models looks like less QPF overall. Not sure what the hype was. Like stated above, after some early morning model glances tomorrow, it switches to now-casting.

Edit: Not in reply to Ralph’s post


Heaviest precip on mesos look suppressed to the south, but these things surprise.
1 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1477
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2694 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:00 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:In the negative wind chills up here now.


53 here and waiting
0 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1798
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2695 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:10 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:In the negative wind chills up here now.


53 here and waiting

Crazy. N and S Texas are like worlds apart. The last time looked at the weather station it was 10 here. I assumed the front would have been down that way by now.
2 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1477
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2696 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:12 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:In the negative wind chills up here now.


53 here and waiting

Crazy. N and S Texas are like worlds apart. The last time looked at the weather station it was 10 here. I assumed the front would have been down that way by now.



I consider you Oklahoma, haha.
1 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2697 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:20 pm

28 here now with wind chill around 20. For now its wait and see really until precip breaks out mid to late morning. Looking like around 24 hours of precip chances and maybe longer if have some lift for Monday afternoon flurries. Even if it were to be 24 hours of freezing drizzle that would be ugly, but I think there will be bands of moderate sleet at times.
1 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38095
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2698 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:24 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:In the negative wind chills up here now.


Yup and we may stay there all day tomorrow :froze: crazy how different it is up here
2 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9289
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2699 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:59 pm

11 PM

5°F with a WC of -11°F
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1798
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO

Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#2700 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sun Jan 14, 2024 12:19 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
53 here and waiting

Crazy. N and S Texas are like worlds apart. The last time looked at the weather station it was 10 here. I assumed the front would have been down that way by now.



I consider you Oklahoma, haha.

Don’t insult a fellow Texan like that!
6 likes   
#neversummer


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest