Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

I have some very interesting rough data to report. This will aparently be one of three longest winter dry spells on record for this area. As far as I know the two longest streaks on record are:

Jan 1985 - 14 days

Feb / March 1949 - 12 days

This one looks like it will come in at 13 days...15 if days with a trace can be counted. I need to verify some of this, but this paints an intersting picture.

The winter following the 1985 dry spell had the coldest Nov on record.

The winter following the 1949 dry spell had the coldest Jan on record...hmmm.

I like the way things are stacking up here! In general I expect this to be a fascinating year for weather!

[andrewr]

Currently 30F now (some frost forming) and North Bend is at 34F. Could TT be waking up with frost?

[Guest]

It is already below freezing here... it has been for 3 hours...I just drove up to the top of a hill about 200 feet from the lake which means its 500 feet above sea level and the roads were covered with frost... I could run and slide about 10 feet... PRETTY SLICK

[TT-SEA]

Some mild temperatures and HIGH dewpoints where there are clouds this morning.

That looks like the entire area except for out here near the mountains.

I see 43 degrees at Sea-Tac and 42 degrees in Bellevue.

We have 31.1 degrees here with perfectly clear skies. Looks like very little frost has formed. Should be no frost at all for 95% of the Seattle area.

[R-Dub]

2/25/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:15:38 AM CURRENT
Temperature (ºF) 33.5
Humidity (%) 99.8
Wind (mph) E 0.7
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.11
Dew Point: 33.4 ºF

[R-Dub]

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE, WA 1035 PM PST THU FEB 24 2005 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE 24TH IN WESTERN WASHINGTON... HI TODAY RECORD HI / YEAR OLYMPIA 65 64 / 1949 SANDPOINT WSFO 61 60 / 1988

[andycottle]

Good morning all. It`s a cloudy start to the morning here, but sunny skies are forecasted for later on today. Current temp at 7:50am is 42 with humidity 100% and baro 29.88 and steady. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Hi all. Looking this mornings 6z GFS...this weekend is still shaping up to be rather nice and sunny one as 500MB vorticity heights are around 558DM with 850MB temps of +3C, light winds out of the South.. SW and heights 1470 to near 1500M. In the long range, 28th - 4th....we`ll see rounds of showers which looks to be steady times, but no real heavy amounts during this time. And in the much longer range...5th - 13th, big ridge of high pressure still appearing to take a strong hold for Much of the PNW, as 850 Temps near to +12C with 500MB vorticities of 576DM during the 7th - 13th time frame. So still going with my current thinking of mid- upper 70`s and maybe a isolated low 80`s temp during this time.

Side note:

Last year on March 29th...I had a high of 81. -- Andy

[AnthonyC]

Woah! What are those things floating in the sky?! I've never seen them before!! What could they be?! lol. Alot of low clouds this morning. From that, temperatures are pretty mild...my thermometer reads 39F...no frost anywhere. Since it's the end of February, the low clouds should not have a hard time burning off...I would say by 11am everyone is in the clear. But with a little less sun, temperatures should max out in the mid, upper 50s compared to the low, mid 60s of yesterday.

As for the extended, later next week and weekend look like the best shot for measurable precip and mountain snow. Unfortunately, snow levels remain modestly high...above 4k which doesn't bare well for Snoqualmie Pass but hopefully some good news for Stevens Pass. But in the extended, another strong ridge develops. Like TT-SEA said, don't know if I'm buying this gigantic ridge in the extended, but this winter has been crazy so for now I'll believe anything I see.

Anthony

[Guest]

To note that those records that were broken were from 1949 and from 1988, both these winters came right before really good winters, 1950, 1989... Just something I noticed and I'm sure many others did too...

[AnthonyC]

Very slow day on the boards.

Not the greatest of days, but at least a change! The fog never burned off and the sun is having a tough time making its presence. At 3pm, it's finally winning the battle but there are still alot of clouds in the sky.

Haven't looked at the latest GFS models because I've been gone most of the day...as is the case with the rest of the members of this thread. If someone wants to update, feel free.

This weekend should be awesome...the ridge should move east right over Washington and give us a very sunny, warm Saturday. Sunday looks like the transition day...and most of next week introduces some rain, but nothing heavy or worth writing home about.

Anthony

Currently 53F with mostly cloudy conditions.

[R-Dub]

Truly one of those marine air type days!! The only odd part is its Feb!! Reminds me of a summer day with a marine air push.

Anyway we started to clear here around 2:30PM, still some low clouds floating around, but its partly to mostly sunny now. Our low this morning was 32 degrees, no new frost though, just what was on the ground for the last 2 weeks. By around noon even that was gone FINALLY!!!

Currently 45.8 degrees

[R-Dub]

An article on the weather and the early development of pollen from the Everett Herald.......

http://www.heraldnet.com/stories/05/02/ ... arm001.cfm

[snow_wizzard]

It was sure nice to see some clouds and much lower high temps today. It actually felt crisp and cool throughout the day.

In Covington we came up with a high low of 53 - 30

I am thinking a couple of more cold night are in the works. The flow returns to offshore later tonight, and we are starting from a lower temperature this afternoon. Keep the frosty nights coming, until the much anticipated rain begins!

Excellent point Brennan (great minds think alike). The records from Sand Point and Olympia yesterday were both from years that led to big winters. In fact...at Sea - Tac all years with record highs in late Feb led to cold winters the next time around.

[andycottle]

Hi all!

Like most everyone eles today, including my self, we saw lots low morning stratus clouds which didn`t really start to break up till early or late afternoon. For me here in Woodinville, it was more like 12:30, 1pm when skies became partly cloudy. Then short time later, skies were mostly clear. Also bit of a cool day as my high got up to 54, after a morning low of 34. -- Andy

[R-Dub]

2/25/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:50:38 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 38.9
Humidity (%) 92.6
Wind (mph) NNW 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.06
Dew Point: 36.9 ºF

[andycottle]

Taking a look at tonights 12z and 18z GFS...Saturday and Sunday still appearing to be nice and sunny. However, these sunny days come to an end! 28th through about the 5th/6th time frame, we have bit of a zonal flow with scattered to steady rain showers at times. Then 7th - 11th...strong high pressure is still posing to take firm grip for much of the PNW with H500MB vlaues of 570 to 576DM, light south westerly winds, strong off shore flow, and 850MB temps of +6 to +9C. This should put surface temps in the mid to maybe upper 70`s. during this time. Look like somewhat of a cool down might be in store for 12th and 13th. -- Andy

[R-Dub]

WOW a very quiet night here on the thread!

Anyway we are down to 35.9 degrees here at 8:30PM

Andy, is that warm pattern that might set up be like the one we had at the end of March?

[andycottle]

Randy, this long range pattern that I have been mentioning, could very well be like the one we had back in March of last year. The GFS has been advertising it for the last 6runs now I believe. We will see what happens. What are your thoughts, Randy?

PS: Currently 37 with clears as of 9:20pm. -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

That ridge for the 8 - 15 day period is certainly irritating. It is so perfectly over us that it means almost no chance of anything exciting happening in that period. As a general rule, an upper level ridge right on top of us with very weak offshore (which is being shown) does not produce overly warm temps. That has a tendency to lock a lot of cool air in at the lower levels.

I would certainly hope that once that ridge is gone, we can get on with getting some real weather in here. Things still look interesting for the 3 - 7 day period.

Yet another surprise seems to be showing up now. The latest sea surface temperature maps indicate that we are now on the verge of entering a marginal La Nina. I cannot even imagine what implications that could have for our weather. As it stands now, quite cold water extends from the coast of South America to about 135W. If that cold water gets west of 150W it would resemble a La Nina more than El Nino. There is still time for the mountains to pick up a lot of snow, if a new La Nina driven pattern could emerge by mid March. I still believe this weather is going to put on an amazing display this year!