Texas Winter 2015-2016

[gboudx]

:uarrow: And potentially severe weather outbreak with possible tornadoes on the warm side

Possibly one of those situations where areas are under a Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watch AND some kind of wintry precip Watch?

[Ntxw]

To NBC 5; DFW since 2000 has seen ice/snow in Feb 10/15 years or 67% of the time. 4/4 during an El Nino or 100% of the time. How's that for cherry picking . I'll take those odds!

But its more important we get some snow to Austin, the snow drought for Porta is going too long. I would take a snowless winter up here for KAUS to see >4" snow

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: And potentially severe weather outbreak with possible tornadoes on the warm side

Possibly one of those situations where areas are under a Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watch AND some kind of wintry precip Watch?

Yep, one of "those" storms. Models have abandoned northern plains idea and exiting the central plains path as it approaches 144 hrs. Panhandle hooker

Doesnt look cold at the surface (yet) but this is a very deep air mass (cold aloft) behind the low

[EnnisTx]

:uarrow: And potentially severe weather outbreak with possible tornadoes on the warm side

Where do you see the dividing line of Blizzard/snow verses just severe weather? any winter weather for north Texas?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

All about timing. We have failed miserably with timing thus far this winter. Havent had big cold air intrusions at all.


In other news, our cold air is in China and the tropical islands of Japan. Okinawa reported its first snowfall in 39 years, and another island reported its first snowfall ever. Guess we were just unlucky.

[Portastorm]

To NBC 5; DFW since 2000 has seen ice/snow in Feb 10/15 years or 67% of the time. 4/4 during an El Nino or 100% of the time. How's that for cherry picking . I'll take those odds!

But its more important we get some snow to Austin, the snow drought for Porta is going too long. I would take a snowless winter up here for KAUS to see >4" snow

We appreciate those kind words. It's been 12 years since KAUS has seen more than 1" of snow and 5 years since we have seen ANY accumulating snow. But whose counting.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: And potentially severe weather outbreak with possible tornadoes on the warm side

Where do you see the dividing line of Blizzard/snow verses just severe weather? any winter weather for north Texas?

A dart board is more accurate than what I think right now, its going to dig into New Mexico maybe even N old Mexico, beyond that is always tricky. The failure with guidance long range is they love deepening the front end of the 5h vorticity, often that piece outruns the main energy and the vorticity at the base of the digging trough carries the load. Thus the south trends.

[Ntxw]

Case in point look at the 12z euro. You can see the gradual shift, from some days ago. Now has the base of the trough digging into Northern Mexico. Thats significant.

[EnnisTx]

Case in point look at the 12z euro. You can see the gradual shift, from some days ago. Now has the base of the trough digging into Northern Mexico. Thats significant.

Thanks for the info. It really is a tough situation to fathom.

[Tireman4]

First significant Central Plains snowstorm in a while next Monday/Tuesday, which makes someone who likes hot weather nervous. Nothing indicated of significance here in Texas (yet), but I never like to see the snow pack dipping farther southward.

The Force maybe strong with this snowstorm....(cue The Empire Strikes Back Theme)

[Tireman4]

For Wxman 57 (he is within 5 miles of my office..tee hee), it is nice and blustery out there today, is it not? ( I say that and I will roast on Sunday..ughh)

[TheProfessor]

I come back to Texas for the weekend and I have to say, I can't wait to spend the this weekend in the 70s, it's going to feel so good.

[wxman57]

On the map below, I plotted the 12Z Euro 500mb heights (in 20m increments) in BLUE and the GFS in RED. The Euro is a little faster with the upper low movement, and faster by 3-4 hours with the frontal passage through Texas. Neither indicates any snow in Texas outside of the northern Panhandle. It looks like the upper low will pass too far north for the D-FW area to get anything out of it snow-wise. Will have to monitor the trend over the coming days.

The bottom image is the predicted snowfall from the 12Z Euro. I plotted it in 1/2" increments.

[wxman57]

I come back to Texas for the weekend and I have to say, I can't wait to spend the this weekend in the 70s, it's going to feel so good.

Yes! Come over to the dark side!

[Ralph's Weather]

On the map below, I plotted the 12Z Euro 500mb heights (in 20m increments) in BLUE and the GFS in RED. The Euro is a little faster with the upper low movement, and faster by 3-4 hours with the frontal passage through Texas. Neither indicates any snow in Texas outside of the northern Panhandle. It looks like the upper low will pass too far north for the D-FW area to get anything out of it snow-wise. Will have to monitor the trend over the coming days.

The bottom image is the predicted snowfall from the 12Z Euro. I plotted it in 1/2" increments.

Looks like at the least I will get to see the aftermath of that storm if I end up heading to NM next week. Should be some incredible snow up in the mountains, I expect a snow depth in the 50-60" range at 9,000 feet.

[EnnisTx]

Headed down to New Orleans next week, hoping the weather is good.... mixing work with pleasure, at least I hope that's how it goes!

[gboudx]

Headed down to New Orleans next week, hoping the weather is good.... mixing work with pleasure, at least I hope that's how it goes!

Depending on when you're down there and where you're gonna be, some parades roll starting Wednesday next week.

[ATCcane]

I'm headed to New Mexico to do some skiing early next week. Looks like good timing for a little fresh powder.

[EnnisTx]

Headed down to New Orleans next week, hoping the weather is good.... mixing work with pleasure, at least I hope that's how it goes!

Depending on when you're down there and where you're gonna be, some parades roll starting Wednesday next week.

Near the convention center, going to a concert at the House of Blues as well.

[weatherdude1108]

Headed down to New Orleans next week, hoping the weather is good.... mixing work with pleasure, at least I hope that's how it goes!

Depending on when you're down there and where you're gonna be, some parades roll starting Wednesday next week.

Near the convention center, going to a concert at the House of Blues as well.

One of these days, I want to visit New Orleans during Marti Gras. Never been to New Orleans. Looks like a fun, happening place!