Texas Winter 2017-2018

[bubba hotep]

Euro Op is trending towards CMC and also the long range ensembles late next week...big HP with S/W digging into the southwest. Lots of opportunities on the horizon (they're rare in this part of the world) - we're bound to hit one of these!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_11.png

The storm after the next storm lol

But seriously, that is what I have been eyeballing the last couple of days. That system is showing up across all models. The energy associated with it will start taking shape in the Pacific over the next couple of days and appears to have a healthy southern branch connection. There could be better snowpack across the Plains and colder source region. It seems like it might have more going for it than the Christmas system.

[JDawg512]

Deviating from the model reading norm on this thread recently, there was quite a big bit of fog this morning in the upper DFW area and it's looking as if it's back for tonight. Interesting at how much condensation is in the air, hopefully it'll stay come Christmas time and some cold.

I drove from DFW to San Antonio today and the ENTIRE way was foggy. Anywhere From 1/2 mile visibility to zero around Austin. I've never seen the state so engulfed in fog for so long. And it's still here.

It's no fun to drive in, but I love foggy days like yesterday. Reminds me of when I was a kid walking around my neighborhood back when foggy days in the winter were more common than they are now around here. Everything is quiet, other than the sound of dripping off of the trees and buildings. The scenery is a bit otherworldly with silhouettes fading into the grey.

[Ralph's Weather]

Models following what we should expect. Show potential 14-9 day out. Then randomly lose it 8-4 days out. Then what do we know it shows back up right before.

Recent fronts have gotten us freezes pretty easily lately and recent SW energy has severely over performed recently.

On Friday we have a Canadian high building in with energy in the SW. Later in the weekend we have a Arctic high though it is unknown if it will have a STJ tap. Into next week we will have additional Arctic fronts. Temps will drop lower and lower with each front as each will lay its own snow down the Plains and the sun is at its lowest angle of the year so modification of the cold will be minimal. Yes, the source regions are not super cold, but that is just a starting point. Take the November 2014 Arctic blast most everyone in N TX got down to around 20 with source temps in NW Canada above 0 for lows. -EPO oriented right along th AK/Yukon border via a 1040mb surface high. And we have a lower sun angle and a December snow pack to our favor now. The recent blast was delivered via a -EPO, 0 degree source temps and a 1048mb high. This is to say that we do not have to see -40 in the Yukon to get teens down here though it sure helps. A -EPO by definition will produce a mild NW North America.

[DonWrk]

Deviating from the model reading norm on this thread recently, there was quite a big bit of fog this morning in the upper DFW area and it's looking as if it's back for tonight. Interesting at how much condensation is in the air, hopefully it'll stay come Christmas time and some cold.

I drove from DFW to San Antonio today and the ENTIRE way was foggy. Anywhere From 1/2 mile visibility to zero around Austin. I've never seen the state so engulfed in fog for so long. And it's still here.

It's no fun to drive in, but I love foggy days like yesterday. Reminds me of when I was a kid walking around my neighborhood back when foggy days in the winter were more common than they are now around here. Everything is quiet, other than the sound of dripping off of the trees and buildings. The scenery is a bit otherworldly with silhouettes fading into the grey.

I love the fog also, it makes for awesome scenery and photo ops. Took this one yesterday morning!

[Yukon Cornelius]

I drove from DFW to San Antonio today and the ENTIRE way was foggy. Anywhere From 1/2 mile visibility to zero around Austin. I've never seen the state so engulfed in fog for so long. And it's still here.

It's no fun to drive in, but I love foggy days like yesterday. Reminds me of when I was a kid walking around my neighborhood back when foggy days in the winter were more common than they are now around here. Everything is quiet, other than the sound of dripping off of the trees and buildings. The scenery is a bit otherworldly with silhouettes fading into the grey.

I love the fog also, it makes for awesome scenery and photo ops. Took this one yesterday morning!

https://i.imgur.com/HYo2Mhv.jpg?1

Looks like my work days!

[Texas Snowman]

Pouring down rain here in Denison and my back patio is underwater!

Just remembering back to late last week when everyone was talking about this heavy rain event ...yeah, right!

If only the models would bust like this concerning snow and cold!

[Brent]

NAM looks like a widespread cold rain Friday(more rain!) Doesnt look quite cold enough for frozen precip

Pouring again here if only the models could be this far off with a snowstorm

[iorange55]

Last Friday's GFS 00z run for 18z on Tuesday (today)

[1900hurricane]

This is a pretty decent warm sector present down where I am. Temps are near 80ºF with dewpoints above 70ºF. I had one of the sweatiest days at my part time job in quite some time. MU CAPE is actually near 2000 J/kg where I am. If only the low level lapse rates would cooperate. : P

[Ralph's Weather]

A very complicated forecast for Friday and Saturday for the Southern Plains. Three scenarios are on the table:

A decently strong linear cold front blasts through with a few showers Thursday night.

The front passes through Thursday night with showers which are reinforced by a shortwave out of the SW during the day Friday.

The front passes through Thursday night into Friday morning with a cutoff low over the SW. This causes another round of heavy rain ahead of the SW low. The low ejects and shears out over the state on Saturday with some wintery mix on the backside.

[1900hurricane]

Man, this airmass is tropical. PWs are approaching 2"!



Also, heh at the ESTP. SPC's marginal risk is up for a reason.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Our local mets must rely solely on the weather models. I think our 10 day forecast has changed 3 times today.

[bubba hotep]

Man, this airmass is tropical. PWs are approaching 2"!



Also, heh at the ESTP. SPC's marginal risk is up for a reason.

Veey efficient rain makers up this way. DFW airport is pushing 2.5" and many areas are already over 3". This system will put DFW back above normal rainfall for '17 with another chance of heavy rain heading into this weekend.

[bubba hotep]

Last Friday's GFS 00z run for 18z on Tuesday (today)

It also had today's system positive tilted and strung out on that run.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Maybe I'm not seeing this right, but logically on the 18z GFS how is half the state at or below freezing at noon on the 24th and at 6:00 pm the freezing line pushes back up North and doesn't even make it into Kansas? I'm looking at the 2m air temp.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Maybe I'm not seeing this right, but logically on the 18z GFS how is half the state at or below freezing at noon on the 24th and at 6:00 pm the freezing line pushes back up North and doesn't even make it into Kansas? I'm looking at the 2m air temp.

You’re looking at 12z and 18z instead of 18 and 00

[ronyan]

Remember to subtract 6 hours to get central time from zulu. 12z is roughly the low and 18z is roughly the high.

[Brent]

FWD intrigued about Friday


Medium-range guidance is struggling with how to handle the upper
trough, which will likely be on the tipping point between cut-off
or not. The latest ECMWF and CMC favor a much slower (though not
fuller cut-off) solution than the operation GFS, which is only
somewhat outweighs a handful of slow ensemble members. For now,
will continue to taper off the precipitation late Friday night
into Saturday morning with the surface temperatures safely above
freezing, but this event will need to be watched closely in the
coming days. A more delayed cessation of precipitation could
yield some wintry precipitation at the tail end of the event.
Those with travel plans this weekend, particularly to areas north
of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex should keep abreast of the
forecast.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS is incredibly warm Christmas Day with its surface temps. 1035 surface high overhead with sub-freezing air above and a 1046 high over Canada with very cold temps over the Northern Plains does not equal a low in the 30s. A realistic value would be teens to low 20s which we managed with a non-centered weaker high a couple weeks ago.

[Lagreeneyes03]

So is it possible the cold could come back for the 22/23 below freezing? Or is that pretty much out of the question?