Texas Winter 2012-2013

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

12z Euro continues what it did 0z. As orangeblood said this morning, a swath of wintry precip early next week for North Texas, then another event (it has a lot of snow for the Red River valley) Thurs/Fri

Longer range it's back putting up cold and big highs into Canada

King Euro!!

[iorange55]

I thought winter was over?

[Ntxw]

I thought winter was over?

It is . But shhh can't show the models we believe

[Big O]

Euro: 1054.6 high in central Canada with trough over central/eastern U.S. on day 10.

[ouamber]

Wow! I am glad to see all the rain TX/OK got this past weekend, but it would nice if IMY (Tulsa, OK) could get in on some snow! We have had absolutely nothing this year, which is completely odd! The tracks of the storms have left us dry and this potential Tuesday storm looks to do the same thing. What ever happened to the storms that track NE?

[Ntxw]

Wow! I am glad to see all the rain TX/OK got this past weekend, but it would nice if IMY (Tulsa, OK) could get in on some snow! We have had absolutely nothing this year, which is completely odd! The tracks of the storms have left us dry and this potential Tuesday storm looks to do the same thing. What ever happened to the storms that track NE?

I can't say for certain, but I think it has to do with the major exceptional drought near your region along with being a blocky winter. Storms have been suppressed south and those that do go to the central plains (Oklahoma too) have been sapped from moisture. Heard about Chicago's 270+ days <1inch snow record, remarkable. Hope the fortunes change next week for you guys.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The PV is riiiiggghttttt where it needs to be on the Euro as well. Lovely!

[dhweather]

Even this guy has punted:

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... s.html?m=1

[orangeblood]

BIG breakthrough by today's model runs.... the models but they are ALL in fairly good agreement on the pattern change unfolding for next week, for what seems like the 1st time all winter (more so on the large scale pattern change coming up next week, not the individual storm potential). It looks like the culprit the models were having a trouble with was the Strat Warming event. The agreement is that the polar vortex moves south as a result of the stratospheric warming, which is forecast to approach near record levels, over to the correct location for cold, on our side of the globe (you were right Ntxw!!!). Now, way too early to pinpoint where this cold is going but this is a VERY good trend and I'll admit that I sounded the alarm a little prematurely yesterday, I apologize!!

To show you how far apart the models were yesterday, check out the AO index forecast from the GFS and Canadian Ensembles from 12Z yesterday



Don't think you can be any further apart than that

Now this is last nights 00Z run



With a GFS AO forecast like that, how can you even acknowledge it. It has been abysmal lately and it's definitely not to be trusted until it gets a better hold of this pattern change!!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[somethingfunny]

Run-to-run consistency and model-to-model agreement, that is all we are ever looking for. It's been looking pretty good for over a week now; but we need one more thing: The models need to settle upon a specific date!

[Texas Snowman]

Even this guy has punted:

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... s.html?m=1

Only because Wxman57 got to him and convinced him to join the "Dark Side" of the Texas Winter 2012-13 thread!

[TrekkerCC]

I do like the look of the EURO for next week. A bowling ball (closed upper level low) trans versing the southwestern US looks to bring us some more rain (possibly wintry weather). Some of our recent-ish snow events (Valentine Day 2004) have been closed upper level low type events. Hopefully, the GFS will trend towards this solution over time.

[Ntxw]

It looks like the culprit the models were having a trouble with was the Strat Warming event. The agreement is that the polar vortex moves south as a result of the stratospheric warming, which is forecast to approach near record levels, over to the correct location for cold, on our side of the globe

It has to do with the teleconnections. The stratwarm is splitting the vortex one over Canada and one over Russia. Both will be cold but it's the delivery that counts. When I saw the models yesterday it bothered me because first there was no Caspian Sea vortex. That showed the east -NAO block looked bogus that funneled NA cold over to Eurasia. Models were most consistent on the NE Pac ridge which favors cross polar from sending Asia to NA. Historically this will always win out over the very -NAO (east based)

[Portastorm]

Maybe it's the residual effects of wxman57's juju in me, but I think folks here are a bit too excited about any said pattern change. Anything which may pull down a piece of the polar vortex into our half of the globe is beyond seven days out. I have seen this happen several times already this winter season where signs looked so encouraging in this regard and it didn't end up happening.

I'm looking at the same teleconnections and data that many of you are and while it is enough to raise an eyebrow or two, I don't think it merits anything beyond that. Just my two pesos. Now, I'll go back into my winter rehab.

[wxman57]

Good! Winter will be over after next week. Looking forward to the first 80F in Houston. 12Z Euro has an area of snow from the southern Hill Country through Dallas to SE OK (and NE of there) Sunday/Monday. That even includes Austin, Portastorm. Liquid amounts 1/2 to 2 mm liquid (2mm west of Dallas/Ft. Worth). Since 25mm is about an inch which equates to around 10" snow, 2.5mm = 1" snow. Therefore, the Euro is predicting less than 1/4" snow for Austin and 1/4 to 1/2" for Dallas/Ft. Worth.

[dhweather]

Maybe it's the residual effects of wxman57's juju in me, but I think folks here are a bit too excited about any said pattern change. Anything which may pull down a piece of the polar vortex into our half of the globe is beyond seven days out. I have seen this happen several times already this winter season where signs looked so encouraging in this regard and it didn't end up happening.

I'm looking at the same teleconnections and data that many of you are and while it is enough to raise an eyebrow or two, I don't think it merits anything beyond that. Just my two pesos. Now, I'll go back into my winter rehab.

BUT THE SKY IS FALLING!!! THE SKY IS FALLING !!!!!

[Ntxw]

Well it's a winter discussion board so we discuss about all potential weather long or short range! Right or wrong you learn from it, just because it's long range doesn't mean it has no use to discuss. That's how forecasting skills advance!

We need to get some snow into Porta soon, who's with me marching to pwc early next week with pitchforks??

[somethingfunny]

Well it's a winter discussion board so we discuss about all potential weather long or short range! Right or wrong you learn from it, just because it's long range doesn't mean it has no use to discuss. That's how forecasting skills advance!

We need to get some snow into Porta soon, who's with me marching to pwc early next week with pitchforks??

I'll bring some Christmas snowballs from my freezer to pelt the new heatmiser into submission.

[weatherdude1108]

Whew … what happened?! One minute I’m enjoying a great lunch and conversation with Wxman57 and the next I’m whisked away to a world where there are palm trees, constant sunshine, little or no wind and a temperature that never dips below 75. Persons in that world hate cold weather and live for the warm days. And when you breathe the air, you develop that attitude. I couldn’t escape it! The words out of my lips and through my fingers were full of warmth. Wow!

When I awoke this morning, I realized I was hyponotized or something. I came back to my senses and got here as quick as I could. I couldn’t get a glass of ice water soon enough. I wanted to see an 850mb zero-degree isotherm. I wanted to see a meteogram for Austin with blue and turquoise lines at the bottom. I wanted to see snow and sleet falling from the sky.

It’s been a crazy 24 hours, friends.

You have fought your way back Porta. You were strong. Stay strong. Do not let the dark side get to you.

I am SO GRATEFUL you were able to fight off and conquer the warm, tropical island paradise of Wxman57! I was really getting worried you were getting sucked into that illusion. Nice to have you back where you belong!

[Portastorm]

Easy everyone ... E-A-S-Y! Just because the PWC isn't issuing Winter Storm Watches for next week doesn't mean I'm not somewhat optimistic about an active winter weather pattern for Texas coming up. I'm just a little more skeptical, maybe, than some of you.

Here ... to prove to you that I have mostly recovered from my Trip to Heat Miserville, here's some nice reading for you. If you want to believe Accuweather's Joe Lundberg, a big change is coming and it will eventually impact those of us in Texas and the Southern Plains.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/shiver-me-timbe/3888124