Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Tammie]

Still sitting at 28 in Denton with a DP still at 3. Wonder if we will see our 38 degree high?

[dhweather]

We are at 30.6 in Heath with a dew point of 12.7 , barometer has dropped to 30.50 a change of - .17 in 6 hours.

Clear skies, light southerly winds since about 8AM.

[Tireman4]

What does Canadian model show?

A cat 5 in the gulf, of course!


Honestly I haven't had a chance to look yet. The 12Z runs should be in now for GFS/GFSP/CMC

NE Gulf Dhweather....

[aggiecutter]

It was pretty cold in Texarkana last night:

[ndale]

KVUE tv radar here is showing some frozen precip over the hill country but EWX mentioned there are some returns but because of our low dew points anything is probably evaporating before reaching the ground. I don't have a thermometer here now but EWX info for my area shows temp at 27, dewpoint of 9. Humidity has risen slightly in the last couple of hours.

[aggiecutter]

Looks like icing is going to be a major concern over NE Texas Saturday night- Sunday morning:

[Portastorm]

KVUE tv radar here is showing some frozen precip over the hill country but EWX mentioned there are some returns but because of our low dew points anything is probably evaporating before reaching the ground. I don't have a thermometer here now but EWX info for my area shows temp at 27, dewpoint of 9. Humidity has risen slightly in the last couple of hours.

Just walked back to the office from lunch and me and my co-workers noticed a very list mist falling downtown. It's almost negligible but was noticed. Oh yeah, it's still not above freezing in the downtown heat island. What was that, GFS? 36 degrees at lunchtime? Uh nope. Try 29 degrees. You were only off by 7 degrees. You lose!

[davidiowx]

Looks like icing is going to be a major concern over NE Texas Saturday night- Sunday morning:

That looks like the percentages have gone up for all of central and parts of SE Texas

[srainhoutx]

Looks like icing is going to be a major concern over NE Texas Saturday night- Sunday morning:

That looks like the percentages have gone up for all of central and parts of SE Texas

These will update in a couple of hours. Those graphics are from early this morning.

[srainhoutx]

Virtually all the 12Z guidance, both deterministic and meso have light precipitation breaking out across Central/SE/E Texas into SW Louisiana tomorrow as frontogenetic lift increases as the front nears the Gulf Coast.

[davidiowx]

Virtually all the 12Z guidance, both deterministic and meso have light precipitation breaking out across Central/SE/E Texas into SW Louisiana tomorrow as frontogenetic lift increases as the front nears the Gulf Coast.

Would this increase the chances of freezing rain/sleet? It doesn't look like I will be going to Austin Saturday. Sigh of relief!

[Shoshana]

KVUE tv radar here is showing some frozen precip over the hill country but EWX mentioned there are some returns but because of our low dew points anything is probably evaporating before reaching the ground. I don't have a thermometer here now but EWX info for my area shows temp at 27, dewpoint of 9. Humidity has risen slightly in the last couple of hours.

Just walked back to the office from lunch and me and my co-workers noticed a very list mist falling downtown. It's almost negligible but was noticed. Oh yeah, it's still not above freezing in the downtown heat island. What was that, GFS? 36 degrees at lunchtime? Uh nope. Try 29 degrees. You were only off by 7 degrees. You lose!

As of 12:55 it's 32 wait 31 here. Keeps changing every few minutes. DP 10 and the barometer is falling. I haven't calibrated it (I need to go reread the instructions) but it's falling. Off to see if anything is falling out of the sky ... nope not yet!

[ndale]

More returns on radar now, some near Austin, but again don't know if anything is reaching the ground.

[Portastorm]

KVUE tv radar here is showing some frozen precip over the hill country but EWX mentioned there are some returns but because of our low dew points anything is probably evaporating before reaching the ground. I don't have a thermometer here now but EWX info for my area shows temp at 27, dewpoint of 9. Humidity has risen slightly in the last couple of hours.

Just walked back to the office from lunch and me and my co-workers noticed a very list mist falling downtown. It's almost negligible but was noticed. Oh yeah, it's still not above freezing in the downtown heat island. What was that, GFS? 36 degrees at lunchtime? Uh nope. Try 29 degrees. You were only off by 7 degrees. You lose!

As of 12:55 it's 32 wait 31 here. Keeps changing every few minutes. DP 10 and the barometer is falling. I haven't calibrated it (I need to go reread the instructions) but it's falling. Off to see if anything is falling out of the sky ... nope not yet!

Just talked to two emergency management types who reported sleet falling near San Marcos and just southeast of Austin ... all within the last 30 minutes. Not surprising really. EWX radar shows minor ripples in the southwest flow coming eastbound. If we don't see a lot of warm air advection tonight, tomorrow morning with precip is going to be really dicey in these parts. Just sayin'.

[ndale]

There is a strong radar return just southeast of Austin.

EWX is very quiet right now, must be analyzing data.

[weatherdude1108]

KVUE tv radar here is showing some frozen precip over the hill country but EWX mentioned there are some returns but because of our low dew points anything is probably evaporating before reaching the ground. I don't have a thermometer here now but EWX info for my area shows temp at 27, dewpoint of 9. Humidity has risen slightly in the last couple of hours.

Just walked back to the office from lunch and me and my co-workers noticed a very list mist falling downtown. It's almost negligible but was noticed. Oh yeah, it's still not above freezing in the downtown heat island. What was that, GFS? 36 degrees at lunchtime? Uh nope. Try 29 degrees. You were only off by 7 degrees. You lose!

As of 12:55 it's 32 wait 31 here. Keeps changing every few minutes. DP 10 and the barometer is falling. I haven't calibrated it (I need to go reread the instructions) but it's falling. Off to see if anything is falling out of the sky ... nope not yet!

At 1:10, the three closest WU stations to work west of the Pflugerville area range from 30-32 degrees F. Dewpoints range from 11-14 degrees. Barometric pressures range from 30.47-30.49.

I can't believe it is still below or at freezing! I don't see 36 happening AT ALL today at this rate, unless it abruptly clears out and we get warm air advection in the next half hour. Sure! But still better than 100 degrees.

[Dallasaggie01]

I have a somewhat related question on the density of these types of fronts - is there an easy explanation for why these artic fronts are typically 2-5,000 feet thick? I could be wrong but I don't recall any cold front passage (or artic) that was deeper than this in past memory. Is it a function of our latitude and warmer upper level winds that compress the height from top down? Other reasons?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I have a somewhat related question on the density of these types of fronts - is there an easy explanation for why these artic fronts are typically 2-5,000 feet thick? I could be wrong but I don't recall any cold front passage (or artic) that was deeper than this in past memory. Is it a function of our latitude and warmer upper level winds that compress the height from top down? Other reasons?

I have been wondering and studying the same thing. A 1055MB high is super strong. Cold air is dense, i get that, hence the pressure increase, but the only thing i can think of why the air is extremely shallow here, and we are missing out on the truly cold stuff is because the upper level winds to come very far south with these systems. They turn the corner and head east around nebraska. We would really like the UL winds to bring it all the way down the the center of the state for a true, deeper cold

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1151 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015


.UPDATE...
AFTER A VERY CRISP MORNING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE TEENS...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY UNDER FULL SUN AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING IN ALL ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S. WE HAVE NO PLANS ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MORNING COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN AND AT FIRST GLANCE IT
APPEARS THAT THE FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO THE WEEKEND IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. WE EXPECT FROPA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCES IN PLACE FOR A WINTER MIX ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
FOR FRIDAY BUT IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT ONLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL
SEE ANY PRECIP FRIDAY. THINGS DRY OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE WARMING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW SO MOST
OF THE PRECIP THAT FALLS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
BE LIQUID. WILL STILL KEEP A MIX IN PLACE BUT EVEN IF THIS
OCCURS...TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE VERY NEAR IF NOT ABOVE FREEZING.

Looks like the FTW office is going with a non factor this whole weekend for the DFW Metro area. What a bummer

Oh, current temp here in FTW 34

[dhweather]

Yep, cold and dry is all we get. Maybe a 4% chance of something falling from the sky. The precip will be very light, and I think most evaporates before it gets to the surface.


Longer range (which is about 1% accurate) the GFS has 60's returning to most of Texas by the 20th.