Texas Winter 2020-2021

[bubba hotep]

12Z Canadian is much warmer for TX, too.

It's only like 20 - 30F warmer for V day weekend vs. 12z yesterday, just working out the details lol

[wxman57]

12Z Canadian is much warmer for TX, too.

Maybe! Both guidance still keeps DFW at best in the middle 30s (though likely hovering freezing) after Monday night and through to the end of the week. If you're taking them verbatim at the surface.

500mb pattern in the 12Z GFS & Canadian does not look suitable for extended extreme cold in TX. Canadian has a big upper low over El Paso and southern NM vs. a ridge there on the GFS. No model agreement.

[Stormcenter]

I would not get too down or excited by any of these
model runs until around Monday. The models
are still trying to figure this out. IMO

[Iceresistance]

12Z Canadian is much warmer for TX, too.

Most models do that because as the possible event gets closer, the amount of variation decreases with more conifdence of the event as the timeline gets shorter

[txtwister78]

GEFS still says cold from Wed- Saturday next week. Obvious contradiction between its operational. I would still lean on the ensemble run at this point.

[Ntxw]

12Z Canadian is much warmer for TX, too.

Maybe! Both guidance still keeps DFW at best in the middle 30s (though likely hovering freezing) after Monday night and through to the end of the week. If you're taking them verbatim at the surface.

500mb pattern in the 12Z GFS & Canadian does not look suitable for extended extreme cold in TX. Canadian has a big upper low over El Paso and southern NM vs. a ridge there on the GFS. No model agreement.

That's exactly why we have been focusing on ensembles. How can two models be night and day at 500mb and expect consistency? I have faith this is a case where using the depth and expanse of the cold at the surface will prove more valuable than at 500mb (not to say trusting the surface temp depiction more than 48 hours out) but will give better insight.

[InfernoFlameCat]

GEFS still says cold from Wed- Saturday next week. Obvious contradiction between its operational. I would still lean on the ensemble run at this point.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom/1612440000/1613066400-kpqDY38PoB4.png

Yes, the GFS must have undergone a fluke. I would like what to see what the ICON has in mind when the event reaches its timeframe.

[Iceresistance]

GEFS is trending with more moisture & more cold in some areas . . .

Hour 198 (Ensemble Member #9 is showing almost nonstop storms from hour 132 to hour 258)

[wxman57]

That's exactly why we have been focusing on ensembles. How can two models be night and day at 500mb and expect consistency? I have faith this is a case where using the depth and expanse of the cold at the surface will prove more valuable than at 500mb (not to say trusting the surface temp depiction more than 48 hours out) but will give better insight.

Agree. 12Z GFS ensembles only go out to 186 hrs (midnight next Thu) so far. Let's see how the new run compares to previous runs.

[orangeblood]

GEFS still says cold from Wed- Saturday next week. Obvious contradiction between its operational. I would still lean on the ensemble run at this point.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom/1612440000/1613066400-kpqDY38PoB4.png

Check out the latest GEFS 5 day anomalies - 5 day stretch of 15-25 F below normal...and they continue to trend colder

[Iceresistance]

22 Members & 72 guests on right now, most since the January 2021 Texas Snowstorm

[wxman22]

12Z ICON still has a winter storm across much of the state next Thursday/Friday FWIW, similar to the GFS ensembles.

[wxman57]

GFS ensembles have a light freeze for Houston next Sat/Sun with temps in D-FW 25-28F. Looking on Pivotal Weather site.

[Iceresistance]

The NAM model is starting to show the arctic blast at the very end of the run starting on 12z

[Rgv20]

Keeping a close eye on the Ensembles and it looks very promising if you like cold weather

The good thing is that we already have the source region lock and loaded to dump a potent Arctic Front.

[Iceresistance]

Keeping a close eye on the Ensembles and it looks very promising if you like cold weather

The good thing is that we already have the source region lock and loaded to dump a potent Arctic Front.

That is what this forum is!

[Quixotic]

Don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves, but should the cold air deliver, keep an eye on the soundings regarding potential winter weather as shallow arctic air tends to bring back our old buddy the warm nose. A casual glance at the 12z GFS for DFW showed that nose with precipitation about.

[Ntxw]

Don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves, but should the cold air deliver, keep an eye on the soundings regarding potential winter weather as shallow arctic air tends to bring back our old buddy the warm nose. A casual glance at the 12z GFS for DFW showed that nose with precipitation about.

This is why we've mentioned, at least initially, the risk of ice is higher than normal. Sleet and freezing rain/drizzle may be the dominate precip type in the beginning should there be moisture.

[Rgv20]

Keeping a close eye on the Ensembles and it looks very promising if you like cold weather

The good thing is that we already have the source region lock and loaded to dump a potent Arctic Front.

That is what this forum is!

Most of yes but there a certain member that is from Houston that dislikes the Cold but likes the snow

Meanwhile next Thursday afternoon on the 12zICON

[Iceresistance]

Keeping a close eye on the Ensembles and it looks very promising if you like cold weather

The good thing is that we already have the source region lock and loaded to dump a potent Arctic Front.

That is what this forum is!

Most of yes but there a certain member that is from Houston that dislikes the Cold but likes the snow

Meanwhile next Thursday afternoon on the 12zICON
https://i.imgur.com/EEzmeJy.png

The next model to REALLY watch for is the NAM model, it has the highest accuracy for general weather . . .