Texas Winter 2010-2011

[wxman57]

What does it show for Longview/Tyler?

It would seem to support the idea of a deep south snow storm around Groundhog Day. Massive wave dropping southeast into some very cold air along the Gulf Coast. We'll see...

So the Euro is showing a similar scenario as the GFS?

hmmm

Yes, the Euro does appear to support the 12Z GFS deep south (Gulf Coast?) snow storm in early February. Doesn't mean it will materialize, but I do find this interesting.

[orangeblood]

For those in north and northeast Texas, don't completely write off the two pieces of energy scheduled to come through the area, the first piece on Sunday and second on Monday night. Moisture availability seems to be the biggest question mark but that could change. That second piece interests me the most - this is the one that supposed to become the big east coast storm next week.

[HockeyTx82]

What about the Super Bowl?

[southerngale]

So the Euro is showing a similar scenario as the GFS?

hmmm

Yes, the Euro does appear to support the 12Z GFS deep south (Gulf Coast?) snow storm in early February. Doesn't mean it will materialize, but I do find this interesting.

Ok. Thanks, wxman57. I'll take it with a grain of salt then. However, you might want to let me know when you see something that would suggest I should stop doing cartwheels in my front yard.

[wxman57]

So the Euro is showing a similar scenario as the GFS?

hmmm

Yes, the Euro does appear to support the 12Z GFS deep south (Gulf Coast?) snow storm in early February. Doesn't mean it will materialize, but I do find this interesting.

Ok. Thanks, wxman57. I'll take it with a grain of salt then. However, you might want to let me know when you see something that would suggest I should stop doing cartwheels in my front yard.

Will do. How about posting a video of your cartwheel activity?

[southerngale]

Ok. Thanks, wxman57. I'll take it with a grain of salt then. However, you might want to let me know when you see something that would suggest I should stop doing cartwheels in my front yard.

Will do. How about posting a video of your cartwheel activity?

I'm sure my neighbors are You Tubing me as we speak. lol

[TexasStorm]

What about the Super Bowl?

I like a snow storm as much as the next person (eh, actually not, still have to go to work)... but if this storm in the beginning of Feb pans out we could be in for a massive economic hit here in North Texas. That little thing called the Super Bowl is the weekend after the said storm. If the models are correct then the temp is not expected to get above freezing before the Super Bowl. That means travel issues for people trying to get here. So for once I hope the models bomb out in the next day or two.

[jasons2k]

Hmm, so it was supposed to be 51F today and at 2PM it's only 44F at IAH. Wow.

(edited, I had 40 by mistake...but still)

[HockeyTx82]

What about the Super Bowl?

I like a snow storm as much as the next person (eh, actually not, still have to go to work)... but if this storm in the beginning of Feb pans out we could be in for a massive economic hit here in North Texas. That little thing called the Super Bowl is the weekend after the said storm. If the models are correct then the temp is not expected to get above freezing before the Super Bowl. That means travel issues for people trying to get here. So for once I hope the models bomb out in the next day or two.

I think your Avatar might be what Jerry Jones will look like once he gets wind of this possible "storm" if it continues to play out.........

[srainhoutx]

NOUS42 KNHC 211850 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0150 PM EST FRI 21 JANUARY 2011
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JANUARY 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-052

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE
A. P77/ 37.6N 171.8E (DROP 11)/ 24/1200Z

JWP

[iorange55]

What about the Super Bowl?

I like a snow storm as much as the next person (eh, actually not, still have to go to work)... but if this storm in the beginning of Feb pans out we could be in for a massive economic hit here in North Texas. That little thing called the Super Bowl is the weekend after the said storm. If the models are correct then the temp is not expected to get above freezing before the Super Bowl. That means travel issues for people trying to get here. So for once I hope the models bomb out in the next day or two.

I hope it comes full blast. Mainly cause I dislike the NFL. Dallas will be okay.

[Tireman4]

Ok. Thanks, wxman57. I'll take it with a grain of salt then. However, you might want to let me know when you see something that would suggest I should stop doing cartwheels in my front yard.

Will do. How about posting a video of your cartwheel activity?

Umm...ahem...

[DougNTexas]

That storm yesterday sure petered out by the time the cold air was in place. It cleared off fast in the Longview/Gilmer area. I was 12 miles west of Gilmer at my Dad's place and there was zero moisture when the front and cold air hit. By the time I got to Gladewater a couple hours later it was completly clear. I want a good snow storm soon.

[Tejas89]

DFW hasn't been "locked down" by snow/ice storm but maybe once or twice in the last 15 years and even then it was maybe a day or so of tricky driving.

This sounds like a 1970's/80's style storm happening before the super bowl, which 1. I'll believe it when I see it. 2. What a dose of incredibly bad luck for Jerry and the whole region if it came to fruition.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Moments ago, S2K News caught up with the Portastorm Weather Center director and asked him about the 12z GFS run and its snowmageddon depiction for much of Texas.

"We're confident in that run because it was computed with the assistance of srainhoutx and Southerngale. They know their weather stuff!" The director continued that "we urge Texans from Dallas down to San Antonio and over east to Houston to stock up on supplies and get out to your local hardware store for snow shovels."

More details as they become available.

You missed the omega block which develops from Johnson City up to Georgetown and back down to Bastrop. Portastorm winter weather hopes -Cancel!

Seriously, If and a BIG IF right now, would Corpus/Victoria have a chance at some of the winter precip?

[srainhoutx]

Midland/Odessa:

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL STAY AMPLIFIED OVER THE
CONUS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TOP A SEMI PERMANENT
WEST COAST RIDGE...THEN DIVE SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVEN AS THE NEXT FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY OTHERS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
ACTUALLY WARMED MONDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE WE SLOWED THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN ON MONDAY. SIMILAR ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SINCE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE UPPER PATTERN...AND
MORE SPECIFICALLY THE STRENGTH...AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF ASSORTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ALL OF THESE MODELS AGREE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
STAY AMPLIFIED THOUGH...SO CANNOT HELP BUT THINK SOME VERY COLD AIR
WILL DROP OVER THE REGION. THE PROBLEM...WHEN...STILL REMAINS.

[Ntxw]

FW sitting back and letting the others worry about it!

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/GT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER CA/NV OVER A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP
SEASONABLY COOL AIR IN PLACE AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
RECOVERY...AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT
ARRIVE TUESDAY. MODELS TRY TO PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT QPF...BUT WITH
MOISTURE ELEVATED AND SHALLOW...WOULDN`T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A
LITTLE VIRGA DURING THAT TIME. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES WED NIGHT/
THURS...BUT NEITHER FRONT WILL BE LIKE THIS PAST THURSDAY`S FRONT/
AIRMASS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS EXPECTED FOR LATE
JANUARY.

[downsouthman1]

FW sitting back and letting the others worry about it!

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/GT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER CA/NV OVER A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP
SEASONABLY COOL AIR IN PLACE AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
RECOVERY...AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT
ARRIVE TUESDAY. MODELS TRY TO PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT QPF...BUT WITH
MOISTURE ELEVATED AND SHALLOW...WOULDN`T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A
LITTLE VIRGA DURING THAT TIME. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES WED NIGHT/
THURS...BUT NEITHER FRONT WILL BE LIKE THIS PAST THURSDAY`S FRONT/
AIRMASS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS EXPECTED FOR LATE
JANUARY.

Yeah, I noticed that. FW NWS wants no part of this discussion right now.

[natlib]

What I'm seeing and reading suggests more an East of I-35 storm if it happens. Am I going to be completely left out of the fun here in San Angelo this year?

[Ntxw]

What I'm seeing and reading suggests more an East of I-35 storm if it happens. Am I going to be completely left out of the fun here in San Angelo this year?

Don't get hung up on those snow maps. Nothing more than a child painting it. As long as there is a prospect of a storm, the first usual suspect places that's cold enough for snow would be west and north Texas. However, I would prefer a statewide fun event for everybody! IF it even verifies.